Waiting And Watching

Served as the host of the annual Hoover High Senior Beauty Walk at the Alabama Theatre tonight. I only do two Saturday night events a year... this one, and an event down in Demopolis in early October. Saturdays are normally reserved exclusively for my family.

Funny... anytime we mention snow, or the threat of snow... lots of angry e-mails and comments roll in (no matter if we are right or wrong!). I don't understand. A stange world we live in these days.

I do ask that you don't send me e-mail asking why the NWS, some TV station, another meteorologist, or Country Boy Eddie has a different forecast. You will need to ask them! We clearly lay our thoughts on the line here. Sometimes we get our neck cut off, but you know where we stand.

Needless to say, with me being out of pocket this afternoon and tonight I have not had much time to review weather data. I will be up extra early in the morning and will have a long post here, and Brian will have a video a little later in the morning.

First glance at the 00Z data really doesn't suggest much change in our forecast for Monday morning. Yes, there will be a chance of some snow over parts of North or Central Alabama. I will lay down some very specific details early tomorrow.

On another subject... For Super Bowl fans, check this out:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0125.html

Look for a full discussion posted here by 6:00 a.m. tomorrow...

Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 11:08 pm
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2006

ALZ011>015-017>021-024>029-051300-
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LA
MAR-
MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-TALLADEGA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1025 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2006

...FIRST WINTER WEATHER OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
REACHES THE SURFACE ALONG AND NORTH OF A HAMILTON...TO
JASPER...TO PELL CITY...TO HEFLIN LINE WILL MOST LIKELY FALL AS
SNOW. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE IS POSSIBLE AS FAR
SOUTH AS A FAYETTE...TO PELHAM...TO SYLACAUGA...TO ROANOKE
LINE.

AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL PREVENT SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING ON
ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...BRIDGES COULD BECOME SLICK AND DANGEROUS DURING
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COLDER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA...SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW
FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

AT THIS TIME...MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER
EVENT.

$$
KNS/99



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Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 11:11 pm
Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KBMX 050331
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
931 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2006

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS HAVE JUST ABOUT
PUSHED COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP A
BIT TONIGHT...AROUND 5 TO 8 MPH...SO TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP FROM
COMPLETELY HITTING THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL. STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO
DIP INTO THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE URBAN AREAS OF
BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY. ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST WERE TO TWEAK THE SKY GRIDS AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z ETA MODEL RUN...THE WEATHER
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO LOOK INTERESTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS SEEN WITH THE ETA AS MOISTURE IS
STILL AVAILABLE AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS TO OUR
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL SEE IF THE 00Z GFS MODEL RUN CAN KEEP
A SIMILAR CONSISTENCY TO ALLOW OUR CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE AND
FORECAST TO BE FINE TUNED.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.



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Posted by John T.  
on February 4, 2006, 11:33 pm
Just can't please 'um' all James . And to thank I was going to tell you that I would give a dollar if you just would post what you just did . Yep , crazy world we live in . Including us .

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Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 11:45 pm
I'm not mad, James! *grin* I want some snow!! At least you are letting us know that the threat is there. Your forecast is greatly appreciated!

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Posted by Josh  
on February 5, 2006, 1:45 am
I do not know what is wrong with some people. I don't know what kind of problem there in but I hope they will get some help.

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Posted by  
on February 5, 2006, 2:01 am
James,
I am grateful i have someone to watch or listen to who is so 'passionate' about their work as you are!!!

My little girl is hoping for some snow, but we wont hold it against you if we dont.....You are great at what you do and i appreciate you!!

A fan in Oxford,

Tara

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Posted by  
on February 5, 2006, 4:17 am
James, would you send me a correct forecast for tonight for WZZK? The weekend package didn't have any of this stuff mentioned (probably because it was so iffy Friday).

Thanks.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Stephanie Honeycutt  
on February 5, 2006, 6:08 am
Like I said, we are sure lucky to have our team and this blog. Thanks Guys!!!!

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