Watching Future Developments Monday

February 5, 2006, 8:36 am
Posted by Brian Peters in Weather Discussions
Rating: 5/5   Votes : 1
The Sunday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

People awakening to a sunny but crisp Sunday morning across Central Alabama. I recorded a low of 28 degrees on my station in Helena this morning, so going to have to bundle up to run out to pick up the newspaper! My dog will probably wait faithfully on the front porch and watch me run to the edge of the street. She's just no help when it comes to fetching.

The BIG news continues to be the forecast for winter weather across northern Alabama on Monday. GFS and NAM models in reasonably good agreement developing a weak low over southern Mississippi and then tracking it quicking eastward. Main area for snow appears to run from about Hamilton to Oneonta to Jacksonville to near Heflin as James pointed out in his post below. This could change slightly as the impact of winter storms depends highly on the exact track of the storm center. Also winter weather is often limited to very narrow bands of snow which are difficult to specify with any degree of accuracy even just hours in advance. One to two inches is still looking possible, and the National Weather Service offices in Birmingham and Huntsville have issued snow advisories for Monday.

Two factors which should be good for us - first, the system moves through quickly and does not linger so we should see a quick shot of winter precipitation which will help to keep amounts low. Second the ground is reasonably warm after one of the warmest Januarys in recent years. Still with the cold air over the last day or so we could see some travel concerns with bridges and overpasses as the weather develops.

Weather improves through mid-week as we dry out but stay seasonably cool. Another disturbance toward the end of the week with a large 1044 millibar high over western Canada promises to bring some Arctic air and the potential for another round of winter weather. But that's much too far out to get specific about just yet.

Hope you enjoy a mostly sunny but crisp Sunday. Be weather-wise as we continue to monitor developments on Monday.

-Brian-

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Posted by Josh  
on February 5, 2006, 8:48 am
Snow Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
343 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2006

...SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...

.A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIPITATION THIS DISTURBANCE BRINGS TO
THE AREA WILL BEGIN AS SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY TRANSITION
INTO RAIN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE...MOSTLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

ALZ001>010-016-051745-
/O.NEW.KHUN.SN.Y.0001.060206T0800Z-060206T1600Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN
343 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2006

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST
OF NORTH ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY. NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF HUNTSVILLE...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
1/2 TO 1 INCH.

KEEP IN MIND...THESE LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS MAY CHANGE...BASED ON
THE EXACT TRACK THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE TAKES AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. RESIDENTS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND
STATEMENTS ON THIS EVOLVING WEATHER SITUATION.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

---------------------------------------------------------



Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
413 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2006

...FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA...

.AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL APPROACH ALABAMA TONIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND PUSH MOIST AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO BELOW FREEZING IN THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY. A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS POSSIBLE AS FAR
SOUTH AS A CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...ALABASTER...CHILDERSBURG...
ASHLAND...WEDOWEE LINE.

ALZ011>015-022-023-051815-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0001.060206T0900Z-060206T1500Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA
413 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY.

A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3:00 AM CST. THE MIXTURE WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM SULLIGENT TO CARBON HILL BEFORE ENDING
BY MID-MORNING. AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO ONE INCH...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...SO ROADWAYS SHOULD REMAIN WET...BUT BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES MAY BECOME ICY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.





Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 5, 2006, 9:13 am
Looks more and more like a non-event for all but extreme northern counties along the TN border. Models continue to trend warmer. Im not sure if any of central AL sees a snowflake at all. It really looked good this time yesterday, but what a difference 24 hours can make. I wont write it all off yet, b/c we can have surprises, but it looks ALOT less likely IMO.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 5, 2006, 9:48 am
Looks like Accuweather is going to prove right after all. Seems they nailed this one.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Brett Adair  
on February 5, 2006, 11:36 am
No one has proved right....simply because nothing has happened yet.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 5, 2006, 11:37 am
WATER VAPOR IMAGE AS OF 11:33 OR 1733 UTC
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browse3.html

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 5, 2006, 11:44 am
OFF THE SUBJECT A BIT. PHIL KLOZBATCH, DR. BILL GRAY'S SUCCESSOR SENT ME AN E MAIL ABOUT THE UPCOMING HURRICANE SEASON. I HAD ASKED HIM ABOUT UPCOMING LA NINA' AND ATLANTIC WATER TEMPS, DUE TO THE FACT SOME OF THE BUOY READINGS I SAMPLED WERE A LITTLE HIGH. HIS NEXT UPDATE WILL BE APRIL 4 AND ATLANTIC WATER TEMPS ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE NEAR NORMAL TO 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL AND THAT LA NINA' IS BEING WATCHED VERY CLOSELY. SOME IN THE NWS THINK THE THE UPCOMING SEASON WILL BE EVEN MORE INTENSE THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 5, 2006, 1:01 pm
Im ready for an update from the weather team.



Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 5, 2006, 1:02 pm
Sorry... just impatience I guess.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 5, 2006, 1:05 pm
Yeah, the new model updates should be in by now. I don't know where to get all that info, so I too, am waiting for everyone to get back in from church!

Go STEELERS!!!!!

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 5, 2006, 1:07 pm
There was a serious patch of ice on I-20/59 north this morning that I hit on the way home from work. It was right at the 17th Street exit and covered the left 3 lanes. AL DOT was there, but they had one sign up saying "Road Work Ahead" and then there was a truck on the right shoulder at the spot. I am really glad that I was not going any faster, as when I hit the spot, I lost traction on my rear tires. It did't seem like they were doing anything to sand/salt the ice, or to slow people down! Typical Alabama, I guess. I am planning on going home on the surface streets tomorrow, assuming that day shift relieves me on time!

Matthew

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 5, 2006, 1:10 pm
New models in now? I don't think so (unless there are web site that I'm unaware of..which is very possible)

Normally, I don't get the 12PM model results till maybe 2:30 or 3pm..

anyway, I'm really waiting for the 6pm model output. That one will be interesting.

I personally don't think anything will happen in the I-20 corridor.. except for some very cold rain.

However, I hold on to hope!

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 5, 2006, 1:21 pm
Wow. Look at this link and interpret it, if you have time.

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/gifs/US_W.GIF

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 5, 2006, 1:32 pm
OK, I looked.... but as far as interpreting???? Nope, not me.
I do good to spell W-E-A-T-H-E-R.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Kenny Evans  
on February 5, 2006, 2:03 pm
I have lived in Wichita, KS for over 14 years, and just moved to Trussville about 1 1/2 yrs ago. I have seen more snow in person than Alabama will ever get. So far, I have never seen so much people freak out about the mention of a few snow flakes. As for the schools, knowing Alabama that never gets snow, a few flurries will shut down the entire city, or so I've heard.

Maybe we will get a BLIZZARD... Doubt it!!!!!

Reply to this comment
Posted by Doug  
on February 5, 2006, 2:21 pm
Going to be a non-event for areas south of cullman. Rain everywhere else.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Kenny Evans  
on February 5, 2006, 2:23 pm
Check out this snow fall forecast from the NWS as of 2:20pm CST.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/GraphicalNow/test.php

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 5, 2006, 2:24 pm
Sounds good to me Doug.. especially after looking at the brand new NAM output. Keeps shifting everything toward the north about 30 miles each time.

Oh well.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Doug  
on February 5, 2006, 2:35 pm
Kenny...why do they have talledega with a 2" band?

Reply to this comment
Posted by coppertop  
on February 5, 2006, 2:35 pm
Ever since 1993, I don't like snow down here. I can remember as a kid enjoying the snow. I lived on a hill in Homewood and mom's cookie sheets got worn out sledding.

Don't like snow now. If we could keep it to the grass, that would be great. Either that or have means to keep the streets clear and the power on. I can't remember any snow causing the power to go out until 1993.

Personally, from what I've seen... I think the higher elevations north and east of Cullman will get a dusting. The snow will turn to rain after sunrise and wash everything away.

As for Birmingham.... a cold rain.


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Posted by formeral911dispatcher  
on February 5, 2006, 2:46 pm
Off topic for a bit. I noticed in today's paper that 33/40 is looking for a weekend meteorolgist and a morning anchor. Anyone know who's leaving?

Reply to this comment
Posted by Kenny Evans  
on February 5, 2006, 2:43 pm
Doug,

I would guess that there is some possibility of some more reinforcing cold air from the Applications may sweep down
to further aid the chance of snow.

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