We are aware of the slow response of the blog tonight... we are working on the issue. A ton of traffic on here. I thought everyone was watching the Super Bowl.
The 00Z NAM is coming in and is a tad warmer and slower with the system tomorrow.
However, surface temperatures are considerably colder than the NAM output for right now. Some spots are now below freezing. BUT, it is important to understand looking at your back yard thermometer is not the way to determine precipitation type.
One good level to watch is around 5,000 feet, or where the pressure is around 850 millibars. That is why we often discuss the temperature at 850 mb in our discussions.
I show the current 850 mb temp at Birmingham as 3.8 (C), or 38 degrees (F). Snow flakes will mostly melt in this layer in the current state of the atmosphere.
BUT, that layer is very dry... the dewpoint at 850 mb is -31.6 (C). So, evaporational cooling should come into play early tomorrow morning, which could pull those 850 mb temps down a bit.
BOTTOM LINE
I still don't see any real need to change our original thought from this morning. Best chance of any snow accumulation will be north of a line from Hamilton to Oneonta to Jacksonville to Heflin. One to two inches possible there, mostly on grass. Roads should be mostly wet due to the warm ground. The main travel issue will be ice on bridges where surface temperatures are below freezing.
For the Birmingham metro... some snow flakes are possible, but for the moment major travel problems don't look likely. A cold rain will fall much of the day. In fact, the new NAM ramps up the precipitation totals here to 0.77".
NOTES:
The weather will get very cold later in the week. I know lots of folks are going with the usual "highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s". That is insane.. .we will be lucky to see 35 on Thursday based on the new NAM.
And, there will be more winter weather issues in the days ahead. So, for the snow fans, if you don't get what you want tomorrow, you day might be coming before too long. Stay tuned.
J.B. will have the midnight oil going here; my next post will be up by 6:00 a.m.....
The 00Z NAM is coming in and is a tad warmer and slower with the system tomorrow.
However, surface temperatures are considerably colder than the NAM output for right now. Some spots are now below freezing. BUT, it is important to understand looking at your back yard thermometer is not the way to determine precipitation type.
One good level to watch is around 5,000 feet, or where the pressure is around 850 millibars. That is why we often discuss the temperature at 850 mb in our discussions.
I show the current 850 mb temp at Birmingham as 3.8 (C), or 38 degrees (F). Snow flakes will mostly melt in this layer in the current state of the atmosphere.
BUT, that layer is very dry... the dewpoint at 850 mb is -31.6 (C). So, evaporational cooling should come into play early tomorrow morning, which could pull those 850 mb temps down a bit.
BOTTOM LINE
I still don't see any real need to change our original thought from this morning. Best chance of any snow accumulation will be north of a line from Hamilton to Oneonta to Jacksonville to Heflin. One to two inches possible there, mostly on grass. Roads should be mostly wet due to the warm ground. The main travel issue will be ice on bridges where surface temperatures are below freezing.
For the Birmingham metro... some snow flakes are possible, but for the moment major travel problems don't look likely. A cold rain will fall much of the day. In fact, the new NAM ramps up the precipitation totals here to 0.77".
NOTES:
The weather will get very cold later in the week. I know lots of folks are going with the usual "highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s". That is insane.. .we will be lucky to see 35 on Thursday based on the new NAM.
And, there will be more winter weather issues in the days ahead. So, for the snow fans, if you don't get what you want tomorrow, you day might be coming before too long. Stay tuned.
J.B. will have the midnight oil going here; my next post will be up by 6:00 a.m.....
on February 5, 2006, 9:37 pm
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on February 5, 2006, 10:11 pm
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