The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
This storm today is much, much wetter than the models suggested last night. The NAM was showing .77" for Birmingham; as of midday the rain total at the Birmingham Airport is 2.47"! J.B.'s total of 3.69" (in Trussville) is really incredible.
Can you imagine if the lower 5,000 feet of the atmosphere was colder? We would be measuring the snow along the I-20 corridor in feet instead of inches.
Other rain totals as of 2:00 p.m.:
Anniston 1.64"
Legion Field 1.26"
Riverchase 1.13"
Hamilton 0.82"
Gadsden 0.69"
Tuscaloosa 0.66"
Clanton 0.10"
We have elevated convection going on in the cold sector (the northern half of the state); we have a number of reports of thunder and lightning now. Also a number of reports of small hail from the stronger storms.
Temperatures are generally in the low 40s; the cold spot is Gadsden with 37. Down in far South Alabama, Mobile has surged to 71 degrees with sunshine in the warm sector of the storm.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: The rain will continue to end from west to east this evening, and the sky should clear after midnight. Temperatures should drop into the 27 to 31 degree range for most spots early tomorrow. This means some scattered icing will be possible on bridges where water lingers overnight, and you need to take some extra time to get to work and be aware of potential ice patches. The best chance of "black ice" on bridges will be from about 4:00 until 9:00 a.m. tomorrow.
I don't think the problem will be extremely widespread, but be ready for some slow traffic driving into work tomorrow. And, TAKE IT EASY on the bridges.
Sunshine returns tomorrow with temperatures reaching the upper 40s.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: A strong "Alberta Clipper" will roll through here late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This feature will bring some clouds, and maybe a few snow flurries. But, the big story is very cold air on Thursday. Most communities probably won't reach the 40 degree mark.
THE WEEKEND: A very problematic forecast. I don't think the GFS has a good handle on the southern branch energy... most models don't understand these features until they get into the U.S. upper air network over Texas. I think we will have a very real chance of freezing or frozen precipitation sometime over the weekend;I am just not ready to jump on it yet until we have better evidence. One way or another the weekend will be cold.
We need to note here the ECMWF moves a surface low from far South Alabama to the South Carolina/North Carolina border over the weekend. HMMMM...
LONG TERM: I don't think the GFS has a clue in the longer range; it tries to deamplify the pattern too soon. A cross-Polar, very cold pattern seems to be established for much of February over most of the "lower 48". There will be a number of sleepless nights for us, I believe... dealing with winter weather issues and snow/ice threats. Stay tuned.
This has been a very busy day... thanks to the second graders at Greystone Elementary in Hoover, and the fifth graders at Coosa Valley Elementary in Pell City for being a great audience... you will see those kids on our news on ABC 33/40 tonight at 5:00 and 6:00!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
This storm today is much, much wetter than the models suggested last night. The NAM was showing .77" for Birmingham; as of midday the rain total at the Birmingham Airport is 2.47"! J.B.'s total of 3.69" (in Trussville) is really incredible.
Can you imagine if the lower 5,000 feet of the atmosphere was colder? We would be measuring the snow along the I-20 corridor in feet instead of inches.
Other rain totals as of 2:00 p.m.:
Anniston 1.64"
Legion Field 1.26"
Riverchase 1.13"
Hamilton 0.82"
Gadsden 0.69"
Tuscaloosa 0.66"
Clanton 0.10"
We have elevated convection going on in the cold sector (the northern half of the state); we have a number of reports of thunder and lightning now. Also a number of reports of small hail from the stronger storms.
Temperatures are generally in the low 40s; the cold spot is Gadsden with 37. Down in far South Alabama, Mobile has surged to 71 degrees with sunshine in the warm sector of the storm.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: The rain will continue to end from west to east this evening, and the sky should clear after midnight. Temperatures should drop into the 27 to 31 degree range for most spots early tomorrow. This means some scattered icing will be possible on bridges where water lingers overnight, and you need to take some extra time to get to work and be aware of potential ice patches. The best chance of "black ice" on bridges will be from about 4:00 until 9:00 a.m. tomorrow.
I don't think the problem will be extremely widespread, but be ready for some slow traffic driving into work tomorrow. And, TAKE IT EASY on the bridges.
Sunshine returns tomorrow with temperatures reaching the upper 40s.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: A strong "Alberta Clipper" will roll through here late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This feature will bring some clouds, and maybe a few snow flurries. But, the big story is very cold air on Thursday. Most communities probably won't reach the 40 degree mark.
THE WEEKEND: A very problematic forecast. I don't think the GFS has a good handle on the southern branch energy... most models don't understand these features until they get into the U.S. upper air network over Texas. I think we will have a very real chance of freezing or frozen precipitation sometime over the weekend;I am just not ready to jump on it yet until we have better evidence. One way or another the weekend will be cold.
We need to note here the ECMWF moves a surface low from far South Alabama to the South Carolina/North Carolina border over the weekend. HMMMM...
LONG TERM: I don't think the GFS has a clue in the longer range; it tries to deamplify the pattern too soon. A cross-Polar, very cold pattern seems to be established for much of February over most of the "lower 48". There will be a number of sleepless nights for us, I believe... dealing with winter weather issues and snow/ice threats. Stay tuned.
This has been a very busy day... thanks to the second graders at Greystone Elementary in Hoover, and the fifth graders at Coosa Valley Elementary in Pell City for being a great audience... you will see those kids on our news on ABC 33/40 tonight at 5:00 and 6:00!
on February 6, 2006, 3:02 pm
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