Friday Night/Saturday Morning Looking Wetter

February 8, 2006, 10:49 am
Posted by James Spann in Weather Discussions
Rating: 0/5   Votes : 0
The 12Z GFS run now understands the situation for Friday night/Saturday... it develops a wet storm near Mobile. This is the solution I have been waiting for, and sure looks like we will have to ramp up the chance of precipitation Friday night into Saturday morning.

Looks like the surface low runs from Mobile to Dothan... not really unlike Monday's storm.

Snow or rain?

First glance looks like we might have a soaking rain Friday night with a change to snow on the back side of the storm Saturday morning. But that is sure not set in stone...

Now that the American models understand the situation we can deal with it with a little more accuracy.

I have to run handle the career day duties at Pelham High School, and will have the video with a full post here by 3:30 on the situation. Should be very interesting reading.
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Posted by Stephanie Honeycutt  
on February 8, 2006, 11:17 am
Hey Blogger Buddies

I can't go to the show tommorrow nite - transmission went out on hubby's truck and he has my car..........

Sorry I won't get to meet you guys!!

DRAT!!

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Posted by  
on February 8, 2006, 11:52 am
Not to be a party pooper, but I am doing a "no snow, no rain" dance for Friday night and Saturday. I am moving this weekend and rain and snow would be miserable. Maybe I can get God to delay it by 24 hours. :-)

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Posted by Andy  
on February 8, 2006, 12:05 pm
Angie,

I know how you feel right now. I am moving next weekend, and from what James is saying, we will have several more precip chances between now and the end of the month. I am on pins and needles. I will be doing a non-snow, non-rain dance for you...

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Posted by   www
on February 8, 2006, 12:22 pm
Non-snow dance??
That's a pretty good way to get flamed around here, y'all.
Everybody settle down now...I'm sure they didn't mean it.
:)

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Posted by  
on February 8, 2006, 12:12 pm
Hey Angie I hope you can move but I would love to see some snow B/C I want a few days off.

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Posted by copper  
on February 8, 2006, 12:33 pm
Non-snow dance?
Where can you take lessons?

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Posted by  
on February 8, 2006, 12:54 pm
Non-snowdance?) come on coppertop let's think about all the kids that want to see snow. I know you don't like snow but the kids would love to see some. And there are a lot of big kids on here to that want snow. And think about this if the snow comes on Saturday that is the best day to have it because a lot of people are off work.

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Posted by Rusty Pitts  
on February 8, 2006, 1:00 pm
For what it is worth.. sorry , we are looking at a possible winter storm moving in on Friday night into Sat morning.. Yes the 12 z run of the GFS is showing the Low developing over the Gulf coast, and moisture moving across the southeast.... this is the storem moving out of Old Mexico... Here are the GFS Models.. for friday night into Sat Morning....
Here we are friday evening andthe moisture begins to build to the West...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/ima
ges/gfs_slp_060s.gif

And here we are around early sat morning....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/ima
ges/gfs_slp_072s.gif

Now we have one of the critical rain snow lines running from around livingston NE toward the NE corner of the state... Now we have to look at the air aloft.... Now on this four pannel chart you have to look at the 850mb Temp, Ht hour: 066

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0
_066.shtml

As you can see that the critical rain snow line runs from about Jasper to Cullman to possibly the anniston area... so we have the cold air aloft as well as surface temperatures that are border line....

Now lets move forward into the day on sat... Bout noon... and we see the critical 540 line all the way down to Near Mobile...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/ima
ges/gfs_slp_078s.gif

and on the 850 mb chart we hafve the critical thickness values all the way down to the gulf as well...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0
_078.shtml

So now we are starting to get a set up for some real winter weatehr .. Now the question is ... will this validate?? Chances are., No not exactly the way it is showing on this map, but as James says .. All the players are on the field, and not only that , they are Lined up in a Hail mary formation , and I think they are going for the Touchdown... Question is ... can they execute the play?? By the way James, you can use that if you would like to .... HAHAH .... Looking interesting ... stay tuned and we will get The afternoon update here soon..... Thanks Rusty


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Posted by  
on February 8, 2006, 1:27 pm
Stephanie, I wish that I could take you to the meeting. I have an appointent with dentist and hope for some relief. I do know what it is like to be stranded.

I appreciate the information from Rusty. Would love to see some snow. My son's Boy Scout troop plans to camp and hike at Oak Mountain Friday night/Saturday. Scouts and camping always seem to bring rain. Don't know if they bring snow as well. Any chance the snow will come early so they will have to cancel the trip? Being snowed in would be more fun with everybody at home.

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Posted by Stephanie Honeycutt  
on February 8, 2006, 5:16 pm
Thanks Kim!! I appreciate the thought anyway :)

Hope you all have an awesome time. I on the other hand will be borrowing a friends car so I can go get my bread and milk (ha ha ha!!) for our possible wintery precip.

That and toilet paper.......

Can't get stranded that way huh?? :)

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Posted by Rusty Pitts  
on February 8, 2006, 1:19 pm
Well we cant leave out the NAM ... Here are some of the chart from the NAm... forst we will look at Friday evening ...and we see moisture building back to the East

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/ima
ges/nam_slp_060s.gif

But here is the funny thing as we get into sat morning , we have a swath of Snow showing across central Alabama but the main bulk of moisture is being shunted to the south..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/ima
ges/nam_slp_066s.gif

now we go out to early sat morning.... at 72 hours and we still se some moisture in south alabama from about Bham South ... and the 540 line all the way down well below montgomery ....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/ima
ges/nam_slp_072s.gif


Now we move forward to sat midday and : the Low dies out and moves south.. with very limmited moisture here in the state...as the low moves off toward florda ?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/ima
ges/nam_slp_078s.gif

and finally at 84v hours we see the 1012 mb low near central Florida... I dont think I buy this run of the Nam ..It is just not Consistant with the pattens of the track of the upper air systems for this time of year.... And as James says... It will probably fall somewhere in between the two models... We will just have to wait and see....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/ima
ges/nam_slp_084s.gif


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Posted by  
on February 8, 2006, 1:30 pm
Hey Copper have you bought your milk and bread yet? You know if we get an inch or two of snow we will be shut in for days.........................Just Kidding!

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Posted by Kenny Evans  
on February 8, 2006, 1:51 pm
Hay check out this!!!

forecasted 'Low' tracks...

Valid: ooZ 2-9-06 through 12Z 2-11-06

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.g
ov/wwd/day3_composite.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/q
pf/qpftxt.html&h=768&w=1024&sz=42&tbnid=omWrkfXcZjeZHM:&tbnh=112&tbnw=1
50&hl=en&start=25&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dheavy%2Bsnow%26start%3D20%26svn
um%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26sa%3DN

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Posted by Kenny Evans  
on February 8, 2006, 1:53 pm
go down to the botton of the page,
then click on 'Day 1-3 Surface Low Tracks'

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Posted by coppertop  
on February 8, 2006, 2:16 pm
That's one thing I've not done.... scramble to get bread and milk that is.

I do need to go grocery shopping. Jeff are you offering to help?

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Posted by  
on February 8, 2006, 2:46 pm
Who wants milk and bread during a winter storm. I want junk food!!

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Posted by Daniel  
on February 8, 2006, 2:38 pm
Is it possible this precipitation from the TN showing up on doppler could produce some light snow showers tonight? or is it really starved for moisture?

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Posted by Kenny Evans  
on February 8, 2006, 2:48 pm
Daniel,

Take a look at the dewpoint at your location,
then take a look at the dewpoint at Florence, AL (26F)
*Note* on the doppler radar out of Columbus, MS has
what looks like a lot of rain over Florence, however, ther is nothing falling in Florence. In Birmingham, AL the dewpoint is (21F). sence the dewpoint is at 26F at florence and the dewpoint in Birmingham is at 21F, and there is nothing falling in florence eventhough radar looks like it, it is evaporating in the lower atmossphere. So most likley we will not see much of anything over the Jefferson Co. area tonight!


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Posted by  
on February 8, 2006, 2:52 pm
Copper you wouldn't want me to go grocery shopping. I buy all junk food! I know you hate snow but one snowy day out of 365 isn't that bad is it?

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Posted by Stephanie Honeycutt  
on February 8, 2006, 5:35 pm
Ya know... come to think of it...

some chocolate cake w/ vanilla icing along with some belgian chocolate Godiva ice cream wouldnt be too bad.............

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Posted by Margie Richardson  
on February 8, 2006, 6:30 pm
Oh my goodness...Stephanie!! Hush your mouth...just reading that put 20#s on rear...HAHAHA Mallorie agrees!!

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Posted by Stephanie Honeycutt  
on February 8, 2006, 6:55 pm
I know.... aren't I bad??

But I seem to remember our friend Jeff saying something about having cake during winter weather - so I needed to tease him.

But it sure sounds good don't it???

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Posted by Mikey  
on February 8, 2006, 7:12 pm
We will probably end up getting a cold rain on Saturday morning, as is normal with these systems of late.

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Posted by Kenny Evans  
on February 8, 2006, 7:29 pm
If we do ever get snow... it will only be on the weekend and never will it be on a weekday so we can get out of school.

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