The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
J.B. Elliott has lost Internet service this afternoon... hopefully he will be back on with us tomorrow. I am writing the afternoon forecast package that will be posted over on the seven day discussion page along with this blog post. Lots to disuss...
THIS EVENING: Our clipper is producing light rain over parts of North Alabama this afternoon. I would imagine some of this is beginning to reach the ground... but not all of it. We will continue to mention the chance of a few sprinkles this evening, and flurries later tonight. Dry air near the surface should keep this system from getting out of hand.
GFS JOINS THE PARTY: I have been concerned the American models didn't recognize the potential for an early weekend storm system in recent days. Well... the GFS is now on the same page with the rest of the global models, and is forecasting a significant storm to form near Mobile Friday night.
FRIDAY NIGHT: I think we will deal with a soaking rain at the beginning of the event, perhaps something similar to this past Monday. Rain should begin to fall sometime between 6:00 p.m. and midnight Friday night. Then, as the surface low moves from Mobile over to a point near Dothan, there is a chance that the rain could change to snow over North Alabama overnight, sometime between midnight and 6:00 a.m. Saturday.
Lets take a look at the 00Z model data before we get too specific here. Is there a chance of accumulating snow over North Alabama? Yes. But I am not ready to jump on that with the GFS just now seeing the setup.
**I need to note the new 18Z NAM just into the office is colder than the GFS for Friday night. But, the GFS was more accurate with Monday's system**
WEEKEND CHILL: There is no doubt this will be the coldest air so far this season rolling here this weekend. Who was that forecasting highs in the 50s for the weekend a few days ago? That 50s/30s thing in the longer ranges rarely works this time of the year.
Saturday will be windy and cold with temperatures in the 30s much of the day. We should drop to near 20 degrees early Sunday, with teens possible in colder spots. Sunday will be dry but cold; the GFS MOS, my usual enemy, is actually forecasting a high of only 36 degrees for Birmingham now. The 540 line extends southward into South Florida. This is a very cold airmass. Sure looks like we go into the 15 to 19 degree range early Monday morning.
We begin to dig out of the deep freeze early next week, but I still say the rest of the month will be colder than normal with more threats of wintry weather down the line.
I enjoyed speaking at Career Day today at Pelham High School... good to see my pal Jeff Speegle there as well. I need to write the afternoon discussion now for the seven day page along with the forecast update; that should be ready by 3:30 or so...
I will try to post some additional notes here this evening as new data rolls into the office..
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
J.B. Elliott has lost Internet service this afternoon... hopefully he will be back on with us tomorrow. I am writing the afternoon forecast package that will be posted over on the seven day discussion page along with this blog post. Lots to disuss...
THIS EVENING: Our clipper is producing light rain over parts of North Alabama this afternoon. I would imagine some of this is beginning to reach the ground... but not all of it. We will continue to mention the chance of a few sprinkles this evening, and flurries later tonight. Dry air near the surface should keep this system from getting out of hand.
GFS JOINS THE PARTY: I have been concerned the American models didn't recognize the potential for an early weekend storm system in recent days. Well... the GFS is now on the same page with the rest of the global models, and is forecasting a significant storm to form near Mobile Friday night.
FRIDAY NIGHT: I think we will deal with a soaking rain at the beginning of the event, perhaps something similar to this past Monday. Rain should begin to fall sometime between 6:00 p.m. and midnight Friday night. Then, as the surface low moves from Mobile over to a point near Dothan, there is a chance that the rain could change to snow over North Alabama overnight, sometime between midnight and 6:00 a.m. Saturday.
Lets take a look at the 00Z model data before we get too specific here. Is there a chance of accumulating snow over North Alabama? Yes. But I am not ready to jump on that with the GFS just now seeing the setup.
**I need to note the new 18Z NAM just into the office is colder than the GFS for Friday night. But, the GFS was more accurate with Monday's system**
WEEKEND CHILL: There is no doubt this will be the coldest air so far this season rolling here this weekend. Who was that forecasting highs in the 50s for the weekend a few days ago? That 50s/30s thing in the longer ranges rarely works this time of the year.
Saturday will be windy and cold with temperatures in the 30s much of the day. We should drop to near 20 degrees early Sunday, with teens possible in colder spots. Sunday will be dry but cold; the GFS MOS, my usual enemy, is actually forecasting a high of only 36 degrees for Birmingham now. The 540 line extends southward into South Florida. This is a very cold airmass. Sure looks like we go into the 15 to 19 degree range early Monday morning.
We begin to dig out of the deep freeze early next week, but I still say the rest of the month will be colder than normal with more threats of wintry weather down the line.
I enjoyed speaking at Career Day today at Pelham High School... good to see my pal Jeff Speegle there as well. I need to write the afternoon discussion now for the seven day page along with the forecast update; that should be ready by 3:30 or so...
I will try to post some additional notes here this evening as new data rolls into the office..
on February 8, 2006, 3:13 pm
I am sure you and your buddies will do a great job on forecasting the threat for a storm over this weekend whether it's rain or snow. I'd much rather watch ABC3340 weather segment, even if you just forecast rain for us and the other stations forecast snow for us. I think your station does a much better job on forecasting than others. Keep up the goot work!!
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