Lets use this space tonight to be specific about the storm system that will impact the Deep South Friday night and Saturday morning. The computer models are now in relatively good agreement, making for a reasonably high confidence forecast. Of course, having said that winter weather forecasting in Alabama is very difficult, and some changes in this scenario might be needed.
Rain should enter West Alabama Friday evening, sometime between 4:00 and 7:00 p.m. Rain should become widespread by 9:00 p.m. For communities in extreme North Alabama (the Tennessee Valley), the precipitation should begin as a wintry mix, and change to all snow before midnight.
As colder air pulls in behind a surface low that will move from near Mobile to Dothan, the rain should change to snow over the central part of the state during the night. For the I-20 corridor, including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston, we believe snow accumulation POTENTIAL of 1 to 2 inches is possible from about midnight through 6:00 a.m.
There could be a band of heavier snow accumulation (over two inches) near U.S. 278, or along a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. The ultimate track of the surface low will determine where the strip of heaviest snow will fall, and that strip is only about 20 to 40 miles wide in most cases here in Alabama with winter storm events. It is very hard to nail down that strip more than 24 hours in advance.
We need to mention that the models are suggest liquid equivalent amounts of about 3/4 inch with this system from 9:00 p.m. tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Saturday; if by chance that all falls as snow some spots could see 7 inches. But, we don’t expect that to happen, and for now we will go with the more conservative forecast based on a large part of that 3/4 inch falling as rain.
As always, a few surprises are likely with any kind of system like this. And, of course, this forecast is subject to change.
Very cold air settles into the state for the weekend, and temperatures could reach the teens both Sunday and Monday morning. Stay tuned!
Rain should enter West Alabama Friday evening, sometime between 4:00 and 7:00 p.m. Rain should become widespread by 9:00 p.m. For communities in extreme North Alabama (the Tennessee Valley), the precipitation should begin as a wintry mix, and change to all snow before midnight.
As colder air pulls in behind a surface low that will move from near Mobile to Dothan, the rain should change to snow over the central part of the state during the night. For the I-20 corridor, including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston, we believe snow accumulation POTENTIAL of 1 to 2 inches is possible from about midnight through 6:00 a.m.
There could be a band of heavier snow accumulation (over two inches) near U.S. 278, or along a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. The ultimate track of the surface low will determine where the strip of heaviest snow will fall, and that strip is only about 20 to 40 miles wide in most cases here in Alabama with winter storm events. It is very hard to nail down that strip more than 24 hours in advance.
We need to mention that the models are suggest liquid equivalent amounts of about 3/4 inch with this system from 9:00 p.m. tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Saturday; if by chance that all falls as snow some spots could see 7 inches. But, we don’t expect that to happen, and for now we will go with the more conservative forecast based on a large part of that 3/4 inch falling as rain.
As always, a few surprises are likely with any kind of system like this. And, of course, this forecast is subject to change.
Very cold air settles into the state for the weekend, and temperatures could reach the teens both Sunday and Monday morning. Stay tuned!
on February 8, 2006, 9:33 pm
However, based on the little model data I've seen (and can interpret) I must simply agree that you have no choice but to forecast snow. This definitely looks like the best shot I've seen... and I'm EXTREMELY pessimistic about snowfall chances as other bloggers know by now
We'll see what we'll see... but James has made the only reasonable forecast any met could be asked to make.
Now it's a matter of simply waiting and seeing if what the models suggest verifies.
Looks to be a fun weekend!
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on February 8, 2006, 9:58 pm
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