A Big Weekend Chill; What About Snow?

February 9, 2006, 6:04 am

Posted by James Spann in Winter Weather
Rating: 2.5/5 Votes : 2

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

OVERNIGHT SNOW: Interesting to note the NWS in Huntsville had to issue a "Winter Weather Advisory" for Northeast Alabama late last night; for areas east of a line from Petersburg to Harvest to Arab. There was enough snow to cover cars in parts of Jackson County in the far northeast corner of the state.

NEXT ISSUE: No doubt we will have a big time weekend chill, but will the snow fans finally get what they want?

Snow lovers won't like the 06Z model runs; they are trending northward with the surface low for tomorrow night. They suggest the greatest chance of accumulating snow a little north of here, with the bulk of the precipitation falling in the form of rain Friday night, with a quick change to snow on the back side of the departing storm early Saturday morning.

The 06Z GFS is the colder model; the 06Z GFS runs the low from around Grove Hill to Macon. This would suggest perhaps a chance of some acumulation as far south as I-20 early Saturday as the rain changes to snow, but not much.

The 06Z NAM is faster and warmer; it runs the low up I-59 from Tuscaloosa to Chattanooga with only flurries on the back side.

Last night's 00Z runs (both of them) were farther south and colder. Generally speaking, old timers like me trust the 00Z and 12Z cycles more that the off hour cycles. I stilll lean in the direction of those 00Z runs.

What to do?

I am not a big fan of flip-flopping, so I won't change the package I wrote last night all that much. Everything will be adjusted northward a bit, however, with the best chance of a good snow cover closer to the Tennessee line. I still think we have a chance of getting a little snow on the ground down here. Look at the numbers; that is a whopping 1052 millibar high over Wyoming feeding the cold air.

AND, very cold air aloft and lingering moisture could set the stage for instability snow showers during the day Saturday; those things can make the ground white as well.

WEEKEND CHILL: The weekend will be very cold. I doubt if we reach 40 on Saturday or Sunday, and we will be close to 20 early Sunday morning, with teens in colder places. This will be the coldest air we have seen so far this season...

LONG RANGE: I still think the pattern favors one or two more systems like the one coming in this weekend. I know the GFS really doesn't suggest that, but I don't think it it correct.

I have a very busy day today; I will be taping a radio program with Don Dailey at WZZK this morning, and speaking at the Alabama Baptist Children's Homes and Family Ministries at midday. But, both places have good wi-fi and I will be cheking in with thoughts as the 12Z models roll in....

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Posted by Jeff
on February 9, 2006, 6:25 am

Oh well Bham misses another one. Enough with this crazy winter!! Goodbye to snow threats!! We can do our snow dances for 2007. BRING ON SPRING

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Posted by
on February 9, 2006, 6:28 am

For the 3,467th time...

hopes built.. and hopes destroyed..

in just six short hours

cue the "Debbie Downer" music here.

Why don't we just employ psychics to forecast winter weather instead of using these computer models.

Better yet, why don't they design a computer model that specifically deals with winter wx threats in the deep south and in addition to its physical equations, also takes history into account?... b/c the models must LITERALLY be wrong 95 percent of the time... which makes the "hit" less often than a cheap lottery ticket.

Still, I support the forecast made last night. Then everything looked on track.

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Posted by Stephanie Honeycutt
on February 9, 2006, 6:34 am

I give up!!

Off to the rink in a few minutes...... there I can pretend I am skating on a frozen pond at least.

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Posted by
on February 9, 2006, 6:42 am

Same song;Different verse!!!

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Posted by Rob
on February 9, 2006, 6:58 am

friends, snow seekers, don't give up hope yet.. we still have about 40 hours and 10 more changes in the forecast before the system arrives

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Posted by
on February 9, 2006, 7:17 am

Fifteen years ago before all of these computer models our forcasters predicted snow events 20% better in my opinion. meteorology probably will never be an exact science. James , the old timer forcasting , I think makes you the best forcaster!

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Posted by Tuscaloosa
on February 9, 2006, 7:25 am

I give up too! This is crazy! One minute we find a little "hope" of snow, then Boom a few hours later.....NO SNOW in the forcast for us in T-Town. Oh well. Then maybe we might have a WINTER STORM in MARCH again. UGGGGG it's so frustrating. James, I know you do your best! Keep on Keeping on Brother!

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Posted by Will_Roe@msn.com
on February 9, 2006, 7:30 am

Who was it around here that said a few years back that getting snow to accumulate here in Alabama is like trying to nail Jell-O to a tree.

EVERYTHING has to come together perfectly and at the right time. For the last few years, that has not been the case, and it has been the case so far this winter, too.

Don't give up, folks. With this cold airmass in place, I am sure that there will be more opportunities for the white stuff. Who knows, this might be one of those years where we see a March or early April snowstorm; there is certainly enough cold air entrenched in Canada and Alaska!

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Posted by
on February 9, 2006, 7:36 am

7:30 am snow flurries in Centre

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Posted by www
on February 9, 2006, 7:37 am

I'm not giving up hope until the whole thing is over with. You people give up too easy. I hope all you downer people get snowed in for a day, just for fun's sake. I hope I get snowed in too.

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Posted by
on February 9, 2006, 7:51 am

As much of a realist as I am, I will never...ever give up hope. Even though I am 36 years old I still hope for 1 good snow event a year. I remember when I was a kid what a great time I had with my parents playing in the snow. I want my kids and I to experience the same thing. And I hope that they can do the same thing with theirs and so forth. Models will still be forth coming and stranger things have happened.

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Posted by www
on February 9, 2006, 8:17 am

Never lose hope, my kids are praying hard! I had frozen rain and snow pellets on the deck at daylight and then about 7:30 a very slight few pellets fell for a scant seconds. If I hadn't been on the Nordic Trak looking out at the deck I would've missed them. Now sunshine..no matter the weather always remember.."This is the day that the Lord hath made..I will rejoice and be glad in it!"
In Clay, NE corner of Jeff. Cty

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Posted by
on February 9, 2006, 8:23 am

Amen!! If God wants it to snow in central Alabama then it will and there is nothing we can do to stop it, BUT if HE doesn't there's nothing we can do to make it happen. I do wish it would be 70 this weekend since the snow is out of the forcast. Oh My!! I sound like coppertop.

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Posted by
on February 9, 2006, 8:37 am

Well, the new NAM data is in for 12Z and now James can officially remove any chance of significant snow from the forecast. I don't know what his reasons are for not trusting the 6Z data but now the 12Z data agrees that the moisture will be long gone before temps fall enough to support snow.

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Posted by copperto
on February 9, 2006, 8:38 am

I will say this.... I'd rather have snow than ice.

Whatever is going to happen, will happen. Regardless of how much I'd rather see sunny skies, if it snows... it snows. And if it has to snow... I'd rather see it on the weekend than during the week.

Not trying to throw a wet blanket on things, but I think the low will bring us a cold rain on saturday and give North Carolina north a good snow.

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Posted by www
on February 9, 2006, 10:05 am

Interesting stats from metro Atlanta. At my home, the lowest temp all winter has been 24.6F degrees (24F at Atlanta/ KATL). Since 1878-79, there have been six previous winters in which the "extreme" low temperature in Atlanta has failed to drop lower than 24F before Groundhog day (Feb 2). In five of the six winters meeting this criteria (or 83%), no significant snowfall fell in Atlanta the entire winter season (<1"

. In three of the previous six cases (50%), it failed to reach the teens all winter long (and folks wonder why this Georgia snowlover is depressed/ pessimistic).

Perry

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Posted by AMY
on February 9, 2006, 10:29 am

COPPERTOP! I KNEW YOU MIGHT BE A LIIIITTLE OPEN MINDED .AND SORRY I HAD ISSUES THAT DAY . I THINK I HAVE HAD TO LEARN TO BE OPEN MINDED ABOUT THINGS TOO. JUST HAD A BAD DAY. AND I DONT REALLY HOPE IT SNOWS JUST ON YOUR HOUSE..... TRUCE. AMY

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Posted by
on February 9, 2006, 10:48 am

Hey I hate to say this but last night when I got home from church I looked at the weather and I some how knew we might not see any snow. I know it will be cold but the low is to far north to gives us any snow. Now if some reason the low would be farther south than we just might see some and I hope it does go a little farther south.

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Posted by
on February 9, 2006, 11:00 am

As much as I hate to say it, I don't believe any part of Alabama is going to see a significant snowfall with this system. When looking into the models, you must not take it on face value or you will have crushed hopes every time. I have watched this system from 156 hours out and it has went from nothing to a warm system. The trend has been from cold to warm as we approach lately, and I see no reason to allow this to change my thinking at all. The more phasing we get too far north will allow for a stacked system to pull in more WAA. We want it to phase down in the northern Gulf, but it looks like the subtropical jet axis will ride north....and the polar will not be able to dive south far enough.

May be some descently strong storms given the upper air dynamics....hailers possibly from I-85 south, but mainly a heavy rain event.

Have a good day...

-Brett-

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Posted by
on February 9, 2006, 11:14 am

hey Brett I was thinking the same thing if you go and look at the forecast from a few days ago than you will see that the storm at one time was way down south because the cold jet was pushing it south. And now it's farther north so my thinking is I don't think it will be as cold as first thought yes it will be cold but I don't it will be all that cold. And I fill if this trend keeps up than I think James will warm his temps up for the weekend.

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Posted by
on February 9, 2006, 11:51 am

Sounds great!! Lets warm it up to 70. My kids are running in the Mercedes run for Kids on Saturday. Since we will have no snow no sense if freezing our booty's off. Two years ago it was 30 and flurries ( miserable) but last year was nice. Since snow can be in the forecast one minute and out the next then may be the cold temps can do the same. Lets kick old man winter out of Alabama and welcome Springtime!!

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Posted by
on February 9, 2006, 1:10 pm

Hey Jeff I want warm temps too old man winter has not been here that much this winter. Look at January the warmest on record for a lot of people so old man winter has not been around.

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Posted by
on February 9, 2006, 2:16 pm

My son turned 3 on Jan 11th. About 2 weeks prior to that he was watching a cartoon. On that cartoon the ground was white and he looked at me and said, "Momma, what is that?" I told him that it was snow and he looked very puzzled. Obviously he has never experienced any snow and I want him to so bad I can't stand it. So I am going to stay optimistic too and hope for the best. If not this weekend then hopefully soon. We are on Noccalulla Mtn. in Gadsden so maybe our chances are a little better than others, (higher elevation) but I have been dissappointed way too many times. My husband and I have been together for going on 6 years and we have never experienced significant snow together either. Oh, to make snow-cream with my son and to throw snowballs at my husband!!!! Wishful thinking I know, but I'm such a kid when it comes to this stuff. I just think back to the days as a kid and playing out in it all day and then coming in and drinking hot chocolate while our gloves, and tobaggans hung from the mantle drying over the fire in the fireplace. LET IT SNOW!!!!

Keep up the good work James, and the rest of the crew!

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Posted by Snow Lover
on February 9, 2006, 5:01 pm

Jennifer, you sound just like me about snow. I remember one time in the late seventies that it stayed cold for so long that our pond froze over. The ice was about 2 feet thick! Then it snowed! You talk about beautiful! I will never forget all of the beautiful redbirds (aka Cardinals) on the snow. We went and played on the pond. Sad to say, but we had a 3 person pile up and it cracked. My mom, brother, and dad fell in. They all got out safetly, but it was back to the house for the day.
My parents taught us how to play Rook during that storm. We ate homemade vegetable soup and snow cream. We went sledding and hung out with the neighbors. It was glorious. The day that it warmed up, it warmed all the way up to the 60's.
But like you, I would love for my children to experience this. It's almost like being on a cruise- you can't do anything but relax. The roads are closed- you're stuck at home and it's just wonderful.
Good Lord, if you are reading this, please answer this prayer. We know it is frivilous, but it would allow us to enjoy you beautiful world in a different form!

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