The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Storm Alert 2006 will begin tonight at Homewood High School (the auditorium) at 7:00... I sure hope to see you there. The first 600 people will get a free t-shirt; we have some really good Alabama weather stories and you can meet most of the characters that post on this blog. J.B. Elliott will keep the office staffed tonight and he will be writing the Friday morning forecast package. Quite frankly, I am glad to hand off the baton to J.B. for this event.
After a decent review of current surface and upper air observations, water vaopr loops, model data, and other data... here is the current thinking on coming attractions:
*Rain will become widespread across Alabama tomorrow night as a surface low forms over the southwest part of the state. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch look likely... maybe even some thunder involved, especially south of I-20.
To the north, snow should develop late tomorrow night over much of Tennessee while we get the rain. A large part of Tennessee and Southern Kentucky could see 2 to 5 inches of snow tomorrow night, so keep that in mind if you are traveling to the north.
*As the surface low moves into Georgia, there is a chance the rain will change to snow across the northern third of Alabama before ending early Saturday morning. I think the best chance of accumulating snow will be north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. An inch or so is possible there, but the really significant amounts, most likely, will be north of the border in Tennessee. I sure can't rule out a dusting as far south as Birmingham and Anniston.
This forecast scenario is based on the northward adjustment of the surface low track, seen on the 06Z and 12Z model runs. There is decent agreement; we must note the UKMET keeps the low near the Florida border, with a much better snow potential for the I-20 corridor. I also have to note that 1050 mb high showing up on all the models; I can't recall the last time I saw one of those down here in the "lower 48". That is very cold air.
*Much colder air rolls here on Saturday in the wake of the departing storm. Some flurries will be possible during the day, maybe even a few snow showers. Temperatures will hold in the 30s, and wind chill values will remain below freezing all day. It will be a very raw and cold day.
We should be down in the 18 to 23 degree range early Sunday morning. I think the winds and some leftover clouds will keep the bottom from dropping out. Monday morning could be the coldest with a clear sky and light wind. This will be the coldest two day stretch of the winter season SO FAR.
A warming trend begins Monday afternoon of next week.
LONG RANGE: Same story; I still think the rest of the month, generally speaking, will be colder than normal. And, we will have to watch the interaction between the Polar and the Subtropical jets. Models won't understand that until a few days before each event... just like the models didn't see this storm coming in for Friday night until yesterday.
REMEMBER: Look for a surprise or two just about every winter storm threat like this. Stay tiuned for changes!
I have to pack up and head down to Homewood High School... I will be doing the weather there at 5:00 and 6:00 this evening prior to Storm Alert 2006. Hope to see you and your family there!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Storm Alert 2006 will begin tonight at Homewood High School (the auditorium) at 7:00... I sure hope to see you there. The first 600 people will get a free t-shirt; we have some really good Alabama weather stories and you can meet most of the characters that post on this blog. J.B. Elliott will keep the office staffed tonight and he will be writing the Friday morning forecast package. Quite frankly, I am glad to hand off the baton to J.B. for this event.
After a decent review of current surface and upper air observations, water vaopr loops, model data, and other data... here is the current thinking on coming attractions:
*Rain will become widespread across Alabama tomorrow night as a surface low forms over the southwest part of the state. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch look likely... maybe even some thunder involved, especially south of I-20.
To the north, snow should develop late tomorrow night over much of Tennessee while we get the rain. A large part of Tennessee and Southern Kentucky could see 2 to 5 inches of snow tomorrow night, so keep that in mind if you are traveling to the north.
*As the surface low moves into Georgia, there is a chance the rain will change to snow across the northern third of Alabama before ending early Saturday morning. I think the best chance of accumulating snow will be north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. An inch or so is possible there, but the really significant amounts, most likely, will be north of the border in Tennessee. I sure can't rule out a dusting as far south as Birmingham and Anniston.
This forecast scenario is based on the northward adjustment of the surface low track, seen on the 06Z and 12Z model runs. There is decent agreement; we must note the UKMET keeps the low near the Florida border, with a much better snow potential for the I-20 corridor. I also have to note that 1050 mb high showing up on all the models; I can't recall the last time I saw one of those down here in the "lower 48". That is very cold air.
*Much colder air rolls here on Saturday in the wake of the departing storm. Some flurries will be possible during the day, maybe even a few snow showers. Temperatures will hold in the 30s, and wind chill values will remain below freezing all day. It will be a very raw and cold day.
We should be down in the 18 to 23 degree range early Sunday morning. I think the winds and some leftover clouds will keep the bottom from dropping out. Monday morning could be the coldest with a clear sky and light wind. This will be the coldest two day stretch of the winter season SO FAR.
A warming trend begins Monday afternoon of next week.
LONG RANGE: Same story; I still think the rest of the month, generally speaking, will be colder than normal. And, we will have to watch the interaction between the Polar and the Subtropical jets. Models won't understand that until a few days before each event... just like the models didn't see this storm coming in for Friday night until yesterday.
REMEMBER: Look for a surprise or two just about every winter storm threat like this. Stay tiuned for changes!
I have to pack up and head down to Homewood High School... I will be doing the weather there at 5:00 and 6:00 this evening prior to Storm Alert 2006. Hope to see you and your family there!
on February 9, 2006, 3:19 pm
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on February 9, 2006, 3:42 pm
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on February 9, 2006, 4:23 pm
By the way, do I have reason to worry about snow in Jacksonville, or her getting there safely on the bus if it doesn't snow here?
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