Model Madness

February 9, 2006, 9:25 pm
Posted by James Spann in Weather Discussions
Rating: 4/5   Votes : 4
Well... snow fans... the new 00Z NAM is coming in with the surface low position about 100 miles south of the 18Z forecast. This would imply a greater chance of getting the ground white deeper into Alabama early Saturday morning. Lets see what the 00Z GFS looks like.

Thanks to everyone for coming out to see us at Storm Alert 2006 tonight in Homewood; we will be in Talladega next Thursday....
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Posted by Kenny Evans  
on February 9, 2006, 9:30 pm
James,

DRINK ALL THE COFFEE YOU WANT AND YOU AND YOUR BUDDIES DO A GOOD JOB ON FORECASTING THIS SNOW EVENT, AS YOU ALWAYS DO.

HAVE FUN,
GOOD LUCK,
GOG BLESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Posted by ms  
on February 9, 2006, 9:30 pm
yipee!!! My son is 12 and he can only remember a few dustings of snow. Hope we get enough to play!!!

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Posted by  
on February 9, 2006, 9:35 pm
Ok snow fans let's not get to worked up just yet I don't mean to sound this way but I don't trust the models. Let's see what they say tomrrow.

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Posted by Jeff  
on February 9, 2006, 9:35 pm
James I enjoyed the show tonight. I came with my sons Andrew and Cole. We all had a blast. You are truly the greatest weatherman on the planet!! Hope the 00Z GFS brings good news on the snow!!

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Posted by Clay  
on February 9, 2006, 9:35 pm
Enough to make a snowman is all I'm asking. It can even be a snow action figure!

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Posted by Jeff  
on February 9, 2006, 9:38 pm
Hey Michael you gotta have Faith!! It moves mountains and "causes snowstorms in unlikely places" ( I added that last part) Have Faith Dude!!

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Posted by ms  
on February 9, 2006, 9:42 pm
I hear ya, Clay!

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Posted by  
on February 9, 2006, 9:49 pm
No snow on ground in central Bama......we are cursed....

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Posted by Kenny Evans  
on February 9, 2006, 9:49 pm
Josh,

I would adjust your snow forecast!

Oh say...15'' For Birmingham.
If only...If only!

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Posted by  
on February 9, 2006, 9:55 pm
All I'm saying is that while watching these models has been a ton of fun... tomorrow, I don't give a DANG about the model output... I'm gonna be watching temps, dewpts, satellite loops and radar. B/C if we are paying attention to the evolution of the system, especially the evolution and movement of the rain shield, we'll know probably WELL ahead of time if there is going to be a threat for wintry wx or not. I'm watching for that rain shield to be about 6 hours faster than models are saying... That seems to happen a LOT.

We'll see! Hooray for weather fun!

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Posted by Rusty Pitts  
on February 9, 2006, 10:10 pm
OK here we go , I know that James has been busy with the show and so Let me take a crack at this upcomming event....

Ok here we go for early tomorrow morning.. This is of the 00z run of the NAM... which has been more consistant this winter... we can start to see come of the moisture building to the SW over the Texas Arkansas and Louisianna region... ANd an Arctic high over the Montanna area... Which is what will be forcing the Cold air down here deep in the South...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/ima
ges/nam_slp_012s.gif

Now lets move ahead to tomorrow evening and we begin to see the low beginning to form down around southern Mississippi and Lousianna.. and Moisture building in to the North...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/ima
ges/nam_slp_024s.gif

As we get into Midnight tomorrow night we have heavy rain over most of the state , now the thing we want to look at are the critical thickness values...Now one of those on this model is the 540 line which stays up near the tenesse border..

.Now lets look over at the 850 mb map and we can see that these values are further south .. somewhere arouned the cullman are , so we can stqart to see some smow mixing in late tommorow evening in the Norther part of the state, but the question will be .. waht will the surface temperatures be?? We can look at many things , like evaporational cooling..and so on , but it will be a wait and see...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/ima
ges/nam_850_030s.gif

Now we can move on to Sat Morning... and here we go ... We have the moisture in place and the 540 line running from around livingston to Tuscalloosa to Bham and points NE.. with heavy rain(Possibly snow) falling at this point....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/ima
ges/nam_slp_036s.gif

As for the 850 mb, which is another Rain snow indicator... Well look at it for yourself.. the Freezing line is runnig from deep SW alabama through Montgomery , all the way up and covering most of the Listening area .....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/ima
ges/nam_850_036s.gif

Now lets move ahead to midday on Sat.... we have the moisture moving out and the Coldest air of the season moving in....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/ima
ges/nam_slp_042s.gif

Snow fans , i can say for sure, but this is looking priomissing... I would not be suprised to see some 5-7 inch accumulations somewhere between the Cullman , Oneonta, anniston area... But I am not James and Im sure he will have a different story, but that is what this blog is for....But It sure does lok like an interesting 24 -36 hours...






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Posted by  
on February 9, 2006, 10:25 pm
Rusty... Do we really know that it will be raining/snowing heavily at the time the 540 line is through central AL? All that graphic shows is "6 hr total precip" which doesn't mean what's happening AT THAT MOMENT..but simply what had been accumulating over the past 6 hours.

It is just SO close. The problem is, usually the rain jumps out ahead of the model predictions and shows up earlier. If that happens here, we can forget it.

but who knows? Sometimes either the moisture is SLOWER than the model indicates OR lasts longer.

Its this 2nd option that I'm interested in. I've looked at TONS of model data all day today and the recent runs this evening and I really expect to see some nice snow showers on Saturday during the day.

That actually may be the most fun we have...which is good for me.

Additional thoughts, Rusty?

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Posted by Greg  
on February 9, 2006, 10:32 pm
I think if the storm slows a little bit, then things will begin to look good for snow. It will push the low more south as high pressure builds to our north. We all need to blow out our window to the west to try to hold the storm up.

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Posted by Daniel  
on February 9, 2006, 10:43 pm
I think the Nam is really off. No way this thing moved 100 miles south. Models are off. Its going to be further north. The NE is going to be slammed this weekend! Maybe I should fly to NY....lol

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Posted by  
on February 9, 2006, 10:47 pm
I suspect that too, Daniel. Simply b/c SO OFTEN this has happened historically.



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Posted by coppertop  
on February 9, 2006, 11:06 pm
Keeping in mind that I don't want snow....

I'm going to say the low moves through here quicker than expected and by the time the colder air gets here, we'll have a few snow flurries from the tail end of the moisture.

Then we'll get into the question... how cold will it get Saturday Night? Cold enough to cause icey roads?

As many will say, its a timing issue. I think the rain will move too fast for the cold to catch it.

However, if it snows I will cross my fingers and toes that there is no problems (power outages), the roads are passable, that AMY can build a snowman or a snow angel and all the snow junkies get a good fix.



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Posted by Rusty Pitts  
on February 9, 2006, 11:26 pm
what we have to look at is the validity of the models to this pont with this weather system, and we dont have much untill the past two days.. now in the last storm, we got much more dain, even up to nearly four inches in some areas around Bham... There are so many variable that we have to look at and the primary focus will be on the actual track of the Low... Dew ponts will rise diring the day tomorrow which willnot allow for as much evaprational cooling as we need, but this High pressure system is really going to be forcing the coldest air into te state, that we have seen thus far this year.... Now if that gets here at the same time as the heavy rain moves across the area, that will definitly provide for some widespread snow coverage.... It is going to be a tricky situation , and one we will have to watch closely , Im sure most of us wont get much sleep tomorrow night.... Looking forward to it... NOw , no SNow. this is what its all about.... having fun ....

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