The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
After a wintry weekend, Alabama will enjoy a warm-up this week. But, to the north the coldest air so far this season invades the northern states, and will set the stage for quite a battle this weekend here across the Deep South.
Look for mid 40s today, upper 50s tomorrow, and low 60s on Wednesday as the cold air scoots out of here for the time being. The warm-up will also progress eastward and will help to melt some of the snow from this weekend's historic blizzard.
Moisture begins to creep back northward, and I guess a shower is possible Wednesday and Thursday, but rain chances really begin to increase at the end of the week on Friday.
TO THE NORTH: A monster 1056 millibar high shows up over western Canada, and begins to drop southward into the U.S. this week. Brutally cold air moves into the northern states, and the Arctic front will ultimately become parallel to the upper air flow across the southern states, and the toughest part of the forecast today is figuring out where the front stops late this week. North of the front, a nasty ice storm is possible as warm, moist air rides over a shallow layer of very cold air near the surface.
MODELS SAY: The American GFS model suggests the front comes to a halt somewhere around I-40, up in Tennessee. This would mean rain for Alabama late Friday and Saturday as a wave moves along the front. The ice would be in Tennessee or Kentucky.
However, the NOGAPS and the JMA (Japanese) models suggest the front moves down into North Alabama, which might bring some chance of ice, or at least a wintry mix, to somebody around here on Saturday or Saturday night.
Logic would probably suggest the best chance of ice with this first wave will be north of us, over Tennessee and Kentucky, with rain here Friday into Saturday. But I will say the JMA and the NOGAPS sure pegged this last event way before the GFS even had a clue.
That Arctic front will just hang around into next week with waves moving along it, making for a very difficult forecast pattern down here. North of the front, very cold air and occasional ice threats will rule, while south of the front wet and warmer weather will be the story. Who gets what? Stay tuned.
PIX: I posted a bunch of snow pictures here on the blog over the weekend... scroll down to see them. Thanks to all of the viewers who took the time to send them in.
STORM ALERT 2006: We are coming to Talladega this Thursday night... we will be at the Ritz Theatre and the show begins at 7:00. Come early to meet us and get a good seat!
LONG DISTANCE HATE MAIL: Wow... we received this note over the weekend:
"Last night at 11:30pm your weather team predicted 8 to 12 inches for my area Central New Jersey, well I went outside at 8am and we accumulated 24 inches without any wind gusts and all the other channels are now predicting 5 to 8 more inches in the tri-state area. so how could a prediction of 8 to 12 be so wrong."
The local bashers we have on this blog should be proud of this guy! I actually am not sure what is talking about... I don't recall anyone making providing forecasts for New Jersey on the blog, but thats OK.
I will have the next map discussion video on the server by 3:30 this afternoon...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
After a wintry weekend, Alabama will enjoy a warm-up this week. But, to the north the coldest air so far this season invades the northern states, and will set the stage for quite a battle this weekend here across the Deep South.
Look for mid 40s today, upper 50s tomorrow, and low 60s on Wednesday as the cold air scoots out of here for the time being. The warm-up will also progress eastward and will help to melt some of the snow from this weekend's historic blizzard.
Moisture begins to creep back northward, and I guess a shower is possible Wednesday and Thursday, but rain chances really begin to increase at the end of the week on Friday.
TO THE NORTH: A monster 1056 millibar high shows up over western Canada, and begins to drop southward into the U.S. this week. Brutally cold air moves into the northern states, and the Arctic front will ultimately become parallel to the upper air flow across the southern states, and the toughest part of the forecast today is figuring out where the front stops late this week. North of the front, a nasty ice storm is possible as warm, moist air rides over a shallow layer of very cold air near the surface.
MODELS SAY: The American GFS model suggests the front comes to a halt somewhere around I-40, up in Tennessee. This would mean rain for Alabama late Friday and Saturday as a wave moves along the front. The ice would be in Tennessee or Kentucky.
However, the NOGAPS and the JMA (Japanese) models suggest the front moves down into North Alabama, which might bring some chance of ice, or at least a wintry mix, to somebody around here on Saturday or Saturday night.
Logic would probably suggest the best chance of ice with this first wave will be north of us, over Tennessee and Kentucky, with rain here Friday into Saturday. But I will say the JMA and the NOGAPS sure pegged this last event way before the GFS even had a clue.
That Arctic front will just hang around into next week with waves moving along it, making for a very difficult forecast pattern down here. North of the front, very cold air and occasional ice threats will rule, while south of the front wet and warmer weather will be the story. Who gets what? Stay tuned.
PIX: I posted a bunch of snow pictures here on the blog over the weekend... scroll down to see them. Thanks to all of the viewers who took the time to send them in.
STORM ALERT 2006: We are coming to Talladega this Thursday night... we will be at the Ritz Theatre and the show begins at 7:00. Come early to meet us and get a good seat!
LONG DISTANCE HATE MAIL: Wow... we received this note over the weekend:
"Last night at 11:30pm your weather team predicted 8 to 12 inches for my area Central New Jersey, well I went outside at 8am and we accumulated 24 inches without any wind gusts and all the other channels are now predicting 5 to 8 more inches in the tri-state area. so how could a prediction of 8 to 12 be so wrong."
The local bashers we have on this blog should be proud of this guy! I actually am not sure what is talking about... I don't recall anyone making providing forecasts for New Jersey on the blog, but thats OK.
I will have the next map discussion video on the server by 3:30 this afternoon...
on February 13, 2006, 6:51 am
Most of us appreciate you and your gang for all that you do!! THANK YOU!!
Reply to this comment
on February 13, 2006, 7:09 am
Reply to this comment
on February 13, 2006, 7:34 am
Reply to this comment
on February 13, 2006, 8:26 am
I too will be using the "reverse pshycology" (sic) approach.
But my toes will be crossed in my boots (shhhh!
Reply to this comment