The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Yes, we do have a battle ahead this weekend, and someone might wind up with lots of ice across the Deep South. But first...
WE WARM UP: After another freeze tonight, look for upper 50s tomorrow and low 60s on Wednesday as a nice warming trend kicks in. Moisture will begin to return on Wednesday, but for now we won't mention any chance of rain in our formal forecast despite clouds on the increase.
WE GET WET: A cold front approaching on Friday will bring a good chance of showers. The front marks the leading edge of the coldest air seen so far this season over the "lower 48"; many locations up north should go well below zedro. Where that front stops will determine our weekend weather.
THE WEEKEND BATTLE: The frigid air to the north will battle the tropical air to the south. Thankfully, this is no set up for severe weather. But, north of the Arctic front a nasty ice storm might be brewing. Warm, moist air will be riding up and over a shallow layer of very cold air near the surface (overrunning). The cold air will probably only be a few thousand feet thick just behind the front, a very good setup for freezing rain (rain that falls when the surface temperature is 32 degrees (F) or colder).
The GFS wants to hang the front up near the Tennessee border, which would mean most of the ice problems would remain up over Tennessee.
However, the JMA and the NOGAPS push the front down to near Montgomery, which could mean a chance of ice for parts of North Alabama Friday night or Saturday.
One important point: the global models really don't have the resolution to understand very cold air only two to three thousand deep near the surface. Your usual thickness values and the 850 temps won't reflect this anyway.
SO WHAT HAPPENS? I think we have to at least mention a chance of freezing rain Friday night or Saturday for the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama. We will mention only a cold rain for the I-20 corridor, but watch for forecast changes. These situations are very difficult to handle, and I do have great concern somebody will be slammed with lots of ice across the Deep South. Most likely, extreme North Alabama, North Georgia, and Tennessee. But, maybe more to the south. Stay tuned...
LONG RANGE: That stalled Arctic front should drift northward by early next week meaning mostly rain around here. The latter half of the month sure looks wet as we will be on the southern edge of the westerlies as the battle continues between very, very cold air to the north and the tropical ridge to the south.
STORM ALERT 2006: Don't forget our annual severe weather awareness tour comes to Talladega this Thursday... we will begin at 7:00 p.m. at the Ritz Theatre on the square downtown. Come early to get a t-shirt and a good seat!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Yes, we do have a battle ahead this weekend, and someone might wind up with lots of ice across the Deep South. But first...
WE WARM UP: After another freeze tonight, look for upper 50s tomorrow and low 60s on Wednesday as a nice warming trend kicks in. Moisture will begin to return on Wednesday, but for now we won't mention any chance of rain in our formal forecast despite clouds on the increase.
WE GET WET: A cold front approaching on Friday will bring a good chance of showers. The front marks the leading edge of the coldest air seen so far this season over the "lower 48"; many locations up north should go well below zedro. Where that front stops will determine our weekend weather.
THE WEEKEND BATTLE: The frigid air to the north will battle the tropical air to the south. Thankfully, this is no set up for severe weather. But, north of the Arctic front a nasty ice storm might be brewing. Warm, moist air will be riding up and over a shallow layer of very cold air near the surface (overrunning). The cold air will probably only be a few thousand feet thick just behind the front, a very good setup for freezing rain (rain that falls when the surface temperature is 32 degrees (F) or colder).
The GFS wants to hang the front up near the Tennessee border, which would mean most of the ice problems would remain up over Tennessee.
However, the JMA and the NOGAPS push the front down to near Montgomery, which could mean a chance of ice for parts of North Alabama Friday night or Saturday.
One important point: the global models really don't have the resolution to understand very cold air only two to three thousand deep near the surface. Your usual thickness values and the 850 temps won't reflect this anyway.
SO WHAT HAPPENS? I think we have to at least mention a chance of freezing rain Friday night or Saturday for the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama. We will mention only a cold rain for the I-20 corridor, but watch for forecast changes. These situations are very difficult to handle, and I do have great concern somebody will be slammed with lots of ice across the Deep South. Most likely, extreme North Alabama, North Georgia, and Tennessee. But, maybe more to the south. Stay tuned...
LONG RANGE: That stalled Arctic front should drift northward by early next week meaning mostly rain around here. The latter half of the month sure looks wet as we will be on the southern edge of the westerlies as the battle continues between very, very cold air to the north and the tropical ridge to the south.
STORM ALERT 2006: Don't forget our annual severe weather awareness tour comes to Talladega this Thursday... we will begin at 7:00 p.m. at the Ritz Theatre on the square downtown. Come early to get a t-shirt and a good seat!
on February 13, 2006, 3:06 pm
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