Battle Of The Airmasses

This weekend we don’t have the “Battle of the Bands”, but the “Battle of the Airmasses” across the Deep South.

The coldest air so far this season will be rolling into the northern half of the nation in coming days, and the leading edge of that air should slip into Alabama late Friday or Friday night. It is beginning to look like the front will stall somewhere near U.S. 80, or over Central Alabama. This will probably mean a huge temperature contrast; on Saturday the mercury in Mobile might reach 70, while the high in Huntsville will be closer to 35. The cold air over North Alabama will also be very shallow, perhaps only two or three thousand feet deep. And, that brings concern of freezing rain as a wave forms on the front.

Freezing rain is simply rain that falls when the surface temperature is 32 degrees or colder, and a long period of freezing rain can lead to an ice storm. Those are basically no fun, and can be extremely disruptive thanks to power outages and ice covered roads. The last extremely serious ice storm for the Birmingham metro area was way back in 1982.

So, who gets the ice this weekend? Really hard to say now since global computer models don’t really have the resolution to handle cold air that is only 2,000 feet deep. At first glance, it looks like our friends to the north will have the best chance of ice; extreme North Alabama and Tennessee. A stalled Arctic front with very cold air that is very shallow to the north means a big forecast challenge. Quite frankly, a broad area from Texas through the Deep South into the Carolinas could be a target for some ice accumulation from Friday night through the weekend. We will fine tune this forecast in coming days, but the main message is not to get used to the warmer temperatures we will enjoy through mid-week!