The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Happy Valentines Day to you.
While we will enjoy a big warm-up here during the mid-week period, we are watching the coldest air so far this season building up north, and that will be coming south to cover much of the nation by the weekend.
We should enjoy upper 50s today, low 60s tomorrow, and mid 60s on Thursday. The NAM MOS shows a high of 70 for Birmingham on Thursday! A little aggressive, but sure sounds good. Moisture will be increasing, so there should be plenty of clouds around tomorrow and Thursday.
FRIDAY: Most communities up in North Dakota will have a hard time reaching 0 degrees Friday afternoon. We are talking brutally cold air. The leading edge of that air will be moving through Tennessee, and we should have a few showers around here on Friday. Then, the front drifts down into Central Alabama late Friday night and early Saturday morning. We think the front will stop somewhere around U.S. 80 (the surface front).
WEEKEND ICE ISSUES: There should be an amazing temperature contrast around the state Saturday. The high in Huntsville might be 35, while Mobile could reach 75. For now I have a high in Birmingham of 39 degrees. This is assuming the front at the surface is indeed to the south, of course.
I still think the cold air will only be 2,000 to 3,000 feet deep Saturday, meaning you won't see it using the 850 mb chart (5,000 feet). The 1000-500 mb thickness values also won't really reflect this cold air. And, of course, this shallow cold air means no snow, but the risk of ice where surface temperatures are below freezing (freezing rain).
Still looks like the best chance of freezing rain and ice problems will be over the far northern part of the state and into Tennessee Saturday and Saturday night. I think the GFS is not handling the QPF potential very well; remember how lousy that model was last week... it didn't understand the weekend storm until about 48 hours before the event.
I think there is potential for significant ice accumulation on bridges and exposed surfaces for the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama and Tennessee. Thankfully, the ground will be fairly warm due to the mid-week mild spell. But just keep in mind if you are traveling north this weekend, road conditions could be icy.
We might even have some ice problems as far south as I-20 Saturday night as the cold air seeps southward.
The GFS wants to dry us out Sunday, but I think the weather will be cloudy and cold with some drizzle possible.
NEXT WEEK: Our Arctic front drifts northward Monday with another round of rain (no ice this time). But, it comes back to the south and we might get another shot of colder air by mid-week. Generally speaking, the week looks pretty wet with that front waffling back and forth around here.
LONG RANGE: Well well... the GFS is building a warm ridge over the Southeast U.S. at the first of March. If this happens to be correct, that will bring the warmest weather so far this year right as meteorological spring begins. Spring fever will be breaking out big time IF that is correct. Not totally convinced the ridge wins yet, but we will see.
STORM ALERT 2006: We will be in Talladega this Thursday night at 7:00... our annual severe weather awareness tour will be at the Ritz Theatre on the square in downtown Talladega. Get there early to get a good seat; we have free t-shirts for the first 500 people who come!
TODAY: Will be down in Chilton County today to speak to the kids at Thorsby Elementary School... I should be back in time to have the afternoon video posted on time by 3:30!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Happy Valentines Day to you.
While we will enjoy a big warm-up here during the mid-week period, we are watching the coldest air so far this season building up north, and that will be coming south to cover much of the nation by the weekend.
We should enjoy upper 50s today, low 60s tomorrow, and mid 60s on Thursday. The NAM MOS shows a high of 70 for Birmingham on Thursday! A little aggressive, but sure sounds good. Moisture will be increasing, so there should be plenty of clouds around tomorrow and Thursday.
FRIDAY: Most communities up in North Dakota will have a hard time reaching 0 degrees Friday afternoon. We are talking brutally cold air. The leading edge of that air will be moving through Tennessee, and we should have a few showers around here on Friday. Then, the front drifts down into Central Alabama late Friday night and early Saturday morning. We think the front will stop somewhere around U.S. 80 (the surface front).
WEEKEND ICE ISSUES: There should be an amazing temperature contrast around the state Saturday. The high in Huntsville might be 35, while Mobile could reach 75. For now I have a high in Birmingham of 39 degrees. This is assuming the front at the surface is indeed to the south, of course.
I still think the cold air will only be 2,000 to 3,000 feet deep Saturday, meaning you won't see it using the 850 mb chart (5,000 feet). The 1000-500 mb thickness values also won't really reflect this cold air. And, of course, this shallow cold air means no snow, but the risk of ice where surface temperatures are below freezing (freezing rain).
Still looks like the best chance of freezing rain and ice problems will be over the far northern part of the state and into Tennessee Saturday and Saturday night. I think the GFS is not handling the QPF potential very well; remember how lousy that model was last week... it didn't understand the weekend storm until about 48 hours before the event.
I think there is potential for significant ice accumulation on bridges and exposed surfaces for the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama and Tennessee. Thankfully, the ground will be fairly warm due to the mid-week mild spell. But just keep in mind if you are traveling north this weekend, road conditions could be icy.
We might even have some ice problems as far south as I-20 Saturday night as the cold air seeps southward.
The GFS wants to dry us out Sunday, but I think the weather will be cloudy and cold with some drizzle possible.
NEXT WEEK: Our Arctic front drifts northward Monday with another round of rain (no ice this time). But, it comes back to the south and we might get another shot of colder air by mid-week. Generally speaking, the week looks pretty wet with that front waffling back and forth around here.
LONG RANGE: Well well... the GFS is building a warm ridge over the Southeast U.S. at the first of March. If this happens to be correct, that will bring the warmest weather so far this year right as meteorological spring begins. Spring fever will be breaking out big time IF that is correct. Not totally convinced the ridge wins yet, but we will see.
STORM ALERT 2006: We will be in Talladega this Thursday night at 7:00... our annual severe weather awareness tour will be at the Ritz Theatre on the square in downtown Talladega. Get there early to get a good seat; we have free t-shirts for the first 500 people who come!
TODAY: Will be down in Chilton County today to speak to the kids at Thorsby Elementary School... I should be back in time to have the afternoon video posted on time by 3:30!
on February 14, 2006, 6:39 am
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