The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Lots to discuss this morning.
BIG TIME COLD UP NORTH: Brutally cold air is creeping into the U.S... as I write this Hallock, MN is reporting 20 degrees below zero. Over in North Dakota, Grand Forks is down to 17 below. Bring in the brass monkey. Ouch.
MID-WEEK WARM-UP: We should be in the 60s today and tomorrow, a nice break from the recent cold snap. Moisture is also increasing, so there will be plenty of cloudy periods. Guess we might see a sprinkle or two today or tomorrow, but significant rain isn't very likely.
FRIDAY FRONT: The leading edge of the coldest air of the winter will dip into North Alabama Friday, making for a nightmare temperature forecast. For now we will forecast mostly 50s on Friday, but there will probably be a huge range from Muscle Shoals to Montgomery. And, a few showers are likely near the front.
WEEKEND ICE? The front settles into Central Alabama over the weekend. On Saturday, Huntsville could have a high of 35 while Mobile has a high of 75. The cold air will be very shallow, only a few thousand feet deep, so the "0 line at 850" and the "540 thickness" line won't really serve us well in this case. The GFS MOS also will struggle. We have Birmngham in the 35 to 39 degree range on Saturday with periods of rain. That will be a cold rain.
To the north, ice will be a big problem on Saturday over much of Tennessee, and perhaps extreme North Alabama. Be aware of this if you are traveling north.
Saturday night, the cold air continue to seep southward. By 6:00 a.m. Sunday, the 06Z GFS has the 32 degree line at the surface from about Hamilton to Collinsville, meaning of course any rain that falls north of that line will be freezing rain along with the chance of ice on exposed objects. I still think based on the strength of this Arctic high that freeze line might be closer to I-20, and I can't rule out some light bridge icing as far south as Birmingham early Sunday morning. No, I don't think it will be a major issue, but just something to keep in mind.
There is no doubt the greatest chance of significant ice will be over far North Alabama and Tennessee this weekend.
Sunday temperatures should rise above freezing with more rain.
STILL WET NEXT WEEK: That surface front should drift north of us Monday, but rain should continue at times all the way through Wednesday as it meanders around the Deep South.
SEVERE WEATHER? The 06Z GFS has an interesting solution around Thursday of next week (2/23), showing a strong central U.S. short wave and a surface pattern which favors Alabama getting in the warm sector along with a severe weather risk. This is just one run; lets keep an eye on it. We don't like to be specific beyond seven days, and this might vanish on future runs. But I find it an interesting idea with some credibility.
LONG RANGE: The long range looks different in the latest model runs. The warm ridge isn't there anymore... there are hints at other severe weather possibilities followed by cold air intrusions. Low confidence pattern, to say the least. February and March often feature wild weather swings. Be ready for anything and everything.
STORM ALERT 2006: Don't forget our weather team is coming to Talladega tomorrow night... our show begins at the Ritz Theatre on the square at 7:00... get there early for a good seat!
The next video will be on the server by 3:30 this afternoon!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Lots to discuss this morning.
BIG TIME COLD UP NORTH: Brutally cold air is creeping into the U.S... as I write this Hallock, MN is reporting 20 degrees below zero. Over in North Dakota, Grand Forks is down to 17 below. Bring in the brass monkey. Ouch.
MID-WEEK WARM-UP: We should be in the 60s today and tomorrow, a nice break from the recent cold snap. Moisture is also increasing, so there will be plenty of cloudy periods. Guess we might see a sprinkle or two today or tomorrow, but significant rain isn't very likely.
FRIDAY FRONT: The leading edge of the coldest air of the winter will dip into North Alabama Friday, making for a nightmare temperature forecast. For now we will forecast mostly 50s on Friday, but there will probably be a huge range from Muscle Shoals to Montgomery. And, a few showers are likely near the front.
WEEKEND ICE? The front settles into Central Alabama over the weekend. On Saturday, Huntsville could have a high of 35 while Mobile has a high of 75. The cold air will be very shallow, only a few thousand feet deep, so the "0 line at 850" and the "540 thickness" line won't really serve us well in this case. The GFS MOS also will struggle. We have Birmngham in the 35 to 39 degree range on Saturday with periods of rain. That will be a cold rain.
To the north, ice will be a big problem on Saturday over much of Tennessee, and perhaps extreme North Alabama. Be aware of this if you are traveling north.
Saturday night, the cold air continue to seep southward. By 6:00 a.m. Sunday, the 06Z GFS has the 32 degree line at the surface from about Hamilton to Collinsville, meaning of course any rain that falls north of that line will be freezing rain along with the chance of ice on exposed objects. I still think based on the strength of this Arctic high that freeze line might be closer to I-20, and I can't rule out some light bridge icing as far south as Birmingham early Sunday morning. No, I don't think it will be a major issue, but just something to keep in mind.
There is no doubt the greatest chance of significant ice will be over far North Alabama and Tennessee this weekend.
Sunday temperatures should rise above freezing with more rain.
STILL WET NEXT WEEK: That surface front should drift north of us Monday, but rain should continue at times all the way through Wednesday as it meanders around the Deep South.
SEVERE WEATHER? The 06Z GFS has an interesting solution around Thursday of next week (2/23), showing a strong central U.S. short wave and a surface pattern which favors Alabama getting in the warm sector along with a severe weather risk. This is just one run; lets keep an eye on it. We don't like to be specific beyond seven days, and this might vanish on future runs. But I find it an interesting idea with some credibility.
LONG RANGE: The long range looks different in the latest model runs. The warm ridge isn't there anymore... there are hints at other severe weather possibilities followed by cold air intrusions. Low confidence pattern, to say the least. February and March often feature wild weather swings. Be ready for anything and everything.
STORM ALERT 2006: Don't forget our weather team is coming to Talladega tomorrow night... our show begins at the Ritz Theatre on the square at 7:00... get there early for a good seat!
The next video will be on the server by 3:30 this afternoon!
on February 15, 2006, 7:10 am
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on February 15, 2006, 7:12 am
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