The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
While we enjoy some spring-like weather here today and tomorrow, our attention is focused on extremely cold air moving into the northern U.S.
As I write this, the temperature at Flag Island, Minnesota is two degrees below zero, with a wind chill index of -18. Warroad, MN reports 0 with a wind chill index of -16. Ouch.
Before we deal with some of that kind of air, we will have a very mild day tomorrow. See no reason now why we can't reach the low 70s in most areas. Spring fever could become a real issue!
The front begins to nose in here Friday; the temperature forecast will be a challenge, but it looks like highs will drop into the 50s. Maybe colder up in extreme North Alabama.
NASTY WEEKEND: I actually like a cold and wet weekend. Maybe nasty isn't the right word. But, if you will be at a baseball practice, it will be nasty. A shallow layer of cold air moves into the northern part of the state, and warm moist air runs up and over the cold air meaning clouds and periods of rain.
As discussed many times here in recent days, the cold air will only be 2,000 to 3,000 feet deep, so most models won't know it is there. For the I-20 corridor, I think this keeps temperatures in the 35 to 45 degree range this weekend. We will be close to having some problems with light bridge icing early Sunday morning as far south as Birmingham.
But, the best chance of significant ice problems will be up north, over far North Alabama and Tennessee. I think the general area between U.S. 72 and I-40 will be especially problematic Friday night and Saturday. There could be enough ice accumulation for very difficult travel, and maybe even some power outages. North of I-40 the cold air should be deep enough for snow instead of freezing rain.
It certainly looks now like the greatest winter storm impact this weekend will be over Tennessee and Kentucky, but I sure can't rule out some bridge icing problems down into North Alabama, especially Saturday night and Sunday morning.
NEXT WEEK: I am not really convinced the front will move much at all. We stay cold and wet Monday and Tuesday. Yes, the shallow cold air should modify some, but not as much as you might think. That is a cold, dense airmass to the north. The high in Chicago Saturday should be around 5 degrees.
The 12Z GFS has flipped on the severe weather threat around Thursday 2/23; it now shows a cool and dry day. Confidence is very low at this point in anything specific beyond seven days. A tough pattern.
And, in the long range, our warm ridge that was showing up a few days ago is way down in the central Gulf of Mexico. Sure seems like the rest of February and the first part of March will feature some very cold air for the northern half of the nation, and lots of rain here as that Arctic air tries to press southward, but runs out of gas. A stalled front seems to be within 100 miles of us most days for the next two weeks. Looks really wet. Probably cold at times, and stormy at times. No dull days around here.
WEATHER BRAINS: We loaded this week's Weather Brains show on the server last night... David Black does a great job with that show. Listen here:
http://www.weatherbrains.com/
Or, via iTunes.
STORM ALERT 2006: Yep, we are coming to TALLADEGA tomorrow night... our annual severe weather awareness show kicks off at 7:00 p.m. at the Ritz Theatre on the sqauare. Get there early for a good parking spot and for a t-shirt!
The next map discussion video will be on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
While we enjoy some spring-like weather here today and tomorrow, our attention is focused on extremely cold air moving into the northern U.S.
As I write this, the temperature at Flag Island, Minnesota is two degrees below zero, with a wind chill index of -18. Warroad, MN reports 0 with a wind chill index of -16. Ouch.
Before we deal with some of that kind of air, we will have a very mild day tomorrow. See no reason now why we can't reach the low 70s in most areas. Spring fever could become a real issue!
The front begins to nose in here Friday; the temperature forecast will be a challenge, but it looks like highs will drop into the 50s. Maybe colder up in extreme North Alabama.
NASTY WEEKEND: I actually like a cold and wet weekend. Maybe nasty isn't the right word. But, if you will be at a baseball practice, it will be nasty. A shallow layer of cold air moves into the northern part of the state, and warm moist air runs up and over the cold air meaning clouds and periods of rain.
As discussed many times here in recent days, the cold air will only be 2,000 to 3,000 feet deep, so most models won't know it is there. For the I-20 corridor, I think this keeps temperatures in the 35 to 45 degree range this weekend. We will be close to having some problems with light bridge icing early Sunday morning as far south as Birmingham.
But, the best chance of significant ice problems will be up north, over far North Alabama and Tennessee. I think the general area between U.S. 72 and I-40 will be especially problematic Friday night and Saturday. There could be enough ice accumulation for very difficult travel, and maybe even some power outages. North of I-40 the cold air should be deep enough for snow instead of freezing rain.
It certainly looks now like the greatest winter storm impact this weekend will be over Tennessee and Kentucky, but I sure can't rule out some bridge icing problems down into North Alabama, especially Saturday night and Sunday morning.
NEXT WEEK: I am not really convinced the front will move much at all. We stay cold and wet Monday and Tuesday. Yes, the shallow cold air should modify some, but not as much as you might think. That is a cold, dense airmass to the north. The high in Chicago Saturday should be around 5 degrees.
The 12Z GFS has flipped on the severe weather threat around Thursday 2/23; it now shows a cool and dry day. Confidence is very low at this point in anything specific beyond seven days. A tough pattern.
And, in the long range, our warm ridge that was showing up a few days ago is way down in the central Gulf of Mexico. Sure seems like the rest of February and the first part of March will feature some very cold air for the northern half of the nation, and lots of rain here as that Arctic air tries to press southward, but runs out of gas. A stalled front seems to be within 100 miles of us most days for the next two weeks. Looks really wet. Probably cold at times, and stormy at times. No dull days around here.
WEATHER BRAINS: We loaded this week's Weather Brains show on the server last night... David Black does a great job with that show. Listen here:
http://www.weatherbrains.com/
Or, via iTunes.
STORM ALERT 2006: Yep, we are coming to TALLADEGA tomorrow night... our annual severe weather awareness show kicks off at 7:00 p.m. at the Ritz Theatre on the sqauare. Get there early for a good parking spot and for a t-shirt!
The next map discussion video will be on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...
!!
on February 15, 2006, 3:16 pm
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