Big Time Cold Headed South

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

In the short term, we will get a great preview of spring today as the mercury headed toward the low 70s in many areas. But, like we have warned here for days, don't get used to it. Brutally cold air continues to drop southward into the U.S.

A few choice current observations as I write this:

Big Trout Lake, Ontario -42
Geraldton, Ontario -35
International Falls, Minnesota -26
Waskish, Minnesota -22
Hallock, Minnesota -20
Grand Forks, North Dakota -15

Yikes.

The Arctic front will move in during the day tomorrow, making for a very difficult temperature forecast. I am beginning to think we begin the day in the mid 50s, but drop into the 40s during the day. The Tennessee Valley should be in the 30s by mid to late afternoon. A few showers will accompany the front.

COLD, WET WEEKEND: The front will come to a halt most likely south of Montgomery over the weekend. The high in Huntsville on Saturday should be close to 35; the high in Mobile should be close to 75.

Warm, moist air will be lifted over the top of the shallow layer of cold air near the surface. Once again, the cold air will be only 2,000 to 3,000 feet deep. This will mean clouds and periods of rain on Saturday. To the north, a nasty ice storm is likely over parts of Arkansas and Tennessee.

The biggest ice in my opinion will come between U.S. 72 and I-40. Yes, that does mean the chance of some ice down into extreme North Alabama, but Tennessee will probably take the hardest hit. There could be enough ice for serious travel issues and power outages. Be aware of this if you are driving to the north. And, for the many readers we have in that part of the Deep South it might be worth buying some batteries and extra supplies just in case. Winter storm watches will be required for much of Tennessee later today.

For the Birmingham metro, we should hold in the 36 to 39 degree range much of the day. The bashers were out in full force earlier this week, absolutely fuming mad that we were forecasting temperatures in the 30s on Saturday, while "The Weather Channel" and most all other weather web sites had a high close to 60 for Birmingham. I suggest the bashers peek at those other products now. I don't have time to do that, but I would imagine they are on the same page as we are now.

I have always wondered why those who don't like us and our forecasts even take the time to read this. Life is too short to spend being angry all the time.

Enough of chasing that rabbit....

I do think we go into the low 30s here late Saturday night and early Sunday, just below freezing. However, the GFS shows a nice break in the rain while the mercury goes this low, and that might save us from having bridge icing problems. Just be aware that some light bridge icing is very possible as far south as Birmingham Saturday night and Sunday morning in the event rain does fall.

The GFS continues to suggest that much of the day Sunday will be dry, but clouds will linger and we stay cold. I am not totally comfortable taking rain out of the forecast Sunday due to the overrunning situation.

NEXT WEEK: Looks pretty wet. It won't rain every day; the 00Z GFS has rain on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, with dry weather on Tuesday and Thursday. I don't think anyone knows on which days the rain will fall... with the stalled front around and ripples moving along the front, any dry weather won't last long. The cold air will slowly modify, and I don't expect any ice issues down here next week, although we probably won't be as warm as those GFS MOS numbers. Remember, the GFS MOS was forecasting 60 for Saturday here in Birmingham just a few days ago. That will be WRONG by 20 degrees. Use the numbers with caution.

LONGER RANGE: The pattern won't change all that much into early March. Looks like we will be sitting on the southern edge of very cold air that covers much of the U.S. Frequent wet periods look likely, and from time to time some of the cold air will probably nose down in here. Like the 00Z GFS suggests around February 28. Trying to time specific rain events and cold snaps is simply impossible this far ahead.

STORM ALERT 2006: I doubt if I can produce an afternoon map discussion video due to the travel schedule; we will be in Talladega tonight for Storm Alert 2006. We begin at the Ritz Theatre at 7:00; be sure and get there early to get a seat. If you live in Anniston/Oxford/Pell City/Sylacauga/Lincoln, or places like that, this is the closest show for you this year.

I will have a little time to crank out an afternoon blog discussion even if I can't get the video done... so ttay tuned!