A Miserable Weekend

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I don't see any real reason to change the ongoing forecast. The weekend will be cold, wet, and miserable. And, some bridge icing along the way for parts of North Alabama. Lets break it all down for your weekend planning:

TONIGHT: The cold air continues to creep in here. Lots of clouds as moist air begins to ride over the shallow layer of cold air near the surface, but I think most of the night will be dry. No travel problems.

TOMORROW: Periods of rain are likely during the day, and it will be a cold rain. Mid 30s are likely during the day for I-20, including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston, so no travel problems are expected there.

However, north of a line from Sulligent to Jasper to Blount Springs to Jacksonville, temperatures could be around 32 degrees (or colder), and bridge icing is possible thanks to freezing rain and sleet. Once again, freezing rain is simply rain (liquid) that falls when temperatures are 32 degrees or lower. Sleet means ice pellets.

Due to the relatively warm ground, roads will be only wet, even where temperatures are at freezing. The bridges will provide the challenge due to icy spots. BE CAREFUL ON BRIDGES OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE TOMORROW.

The WRF is amazingly dry, but both the NAM and the GFS support periods of rain through the day tomorrow. The GFS is the wettest model, and it has done fairly well in this kind of pattern this season.

TOMORROW NIGHT: The precipitation will taper off tomorrow evening, but some lingering drizzle is likely tomorrow night, and with temperatures dropping there could be some light bridge icing as far south as Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston (I-20). Thank goodness any precipitation tomorrow night should be light. Temperatures should reach the upper 20s in most areas early Sunday morning.

SUNDAY: There might be some lingering freezing drizzle early in the day, but I now think most all of Sunday will be dry. Maybe even a few peeks of afternoon sunshine.

NEXT WEEK: Looks like the GFS is forecasting rain through Easter (that is a joke..). The stalled, wavy front could very well mean rain on a daily basis Monday through Thursday. Think wet for much of next week. Temperatures will slowly moderate, so no ice. We might even have some thunderstorms by Thursday as a strong wave forms on the front.

We will keep the blog fresh all weekend... so check in often!
Posted by  
on February 17, 2006, 3:03 pm
Is Easter next week or has it just been a long day?

Keep up the good work ( ;

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Posted by coppertop  
on February 17, 2006, 3:23 pm
Well it looks like traveling to Tannehill won't be an issue, it's just how wet we will get.

I've already decided not to camp out.... don't know why the cub scouts choose this weekend to camp out?????

Now I have to decide whether it's worth the risk of catching pneumonia during the day? How heavy is the rain suppose to get? Is it going to down pour, a slow steady rain or a miserable constant light rain?

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Posted by  
on February 17, 2006, 4:07 pm
Here we go again, The National Weather Service is
issuing so many crazy winter weather advisories,watches, warnings. It is so messed up. For instance there is a different advisory, watch, or warning posted within 40 miles of any direction from my home in Russellville, Alabama. Those guys are confused that is all there is to it.

This morning we were issued a winter storm watch, a few hours later it is just an advisory; however, SOUTH OF US THE WINTER STORM WATCH STILL EXISTS. West of us there is a ice storm warning and winter storm warning, and north of us there is a heavy snow warning. So, they are telling me that we are going to have an ice storm just a few miles over the border into Miss, a possible winter storm just south in marion county, and a heavy snow jus over the border in Tenn. What a joke!!!!!!!!!!

ABC 33-40 thank you for being the weather we can depend on. I am only sorry for you that you have to post all these outlandish statements from the National Weather Service. They DO NOT have a clue what they are doing when it comes to winter weather in the south.

James Spann I wish that they would allow you to give them so pointers on how to correctly do weather forecasts.....

Thanks for all you and your staff do!!!!!!!!!

Let's all pray for the schizophrenic National Weather Service Winter Weather Forecasters!!!

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Posted by  
on February 17, 2006, 4:40 pm
Thanks, knight! That was a confusing, hillarious mess of a summary! A great laugh for me! Sandy

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Posted by  
on February 17, 2006, 4:46 pm
Okay, here is my prediction...

Weather? yes, we WILL have weather...

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Posted by Craig  
on February 17, 2006, 5:01 pm
Mac,

We officially have a genius on the blog. With that prediction, you will NEVER be wrong, or even marginally incorrect. Hats off to you! You should RUN the entire National Weather Service.

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Posted by Mikey  
on February 17, 2006, 5:10 pm
We all know the NWS issues and changes watch areas all the time. Although this is a developing weather situation, they need to not jump the gun so much.



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Posted by   www
on February 17, 2006, 6:15 pm
They should blanket winter storm watches/warnings all across the board till the precip falls and issue snow or ice warnings and advisories when they know what is actually falling in an area.

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Posted by  
on February 17, 2006, 7:57 pm
where is everybody tonight? what is going on in t-town this weekend weather wise has anything changed just a cold nasty rain?

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Posted by  
on February 17, 2006, 8:23 pm
when is the updated forecas or current models coming out? whats the chances of tuscaloosa going under an advisory

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Posted by John T.  
on February 17, 2006, 8:32 pm
My guess would be that the wx team is resting up for the main event , moreless after midnight for the northern 1/4 at that time . Nothing really major until tomorrow as far as winter precip. . For B'ham / Tusc. , James said earlier on the blog that these areas might have a chance for SOME icy conditions TOMORROW EVENING . Believe me , when it starts to get kicking they will be in action on here .

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Posted by Chris M.  
on February 17, 2006, 8:32 pm
Good one Mac, but you know what they say, if you can't lie you can't predict the weather. :) Ice storms always concern me although we have come a long way trimming tree limbs away from power lines. At least it's the weekend and kids are out of school and travel will be lessened. They so often have a way of being sneaky and coming up and biting ya. Hopefully, I will continue to have power to keep warm and check the blog (By the way I live in North Alabama) As well I thought the same thing Knight about the NWS and all their watches/warnings being different than their neighbors NWS office. Very confusing on what to expect. Guess we will hope for the best and see what we will see!

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Posted by Derek  
on February 17, 2006, 8:59 pm
I have a feeling that this is probably going to be another no show. Here at Eva, the temperature has been hovering at 40 degrees throughout the evening, even with the north wind and cold air advection. Apparently the cloud cover is playing a role in keeping temps up. Just wait and see I guess.

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Posted by  
on February 17, 2006, 8:53 pm
Anyone seen any of the latest model runs?

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Posted by  
on February 17, 2006, 10:07 pm
Does anyone live close to, or on the way to Tunica, Ms. from Birmingham? I am planning a trip Sat. morning don't know how the road are. Can anyone help me I can check back in the morning with you if anyone can let me know.


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Posted by John T.  
on February 17, 2006, 10:16 pm
Linda , my suggestion would be to get on the latest post , probable by JB or James and ask a professional with it being in MS & this touchy of a situation .

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Posted by John T.  
on February 17, 2006, 10:19 pm
Or e-mail James directly by clicking his picture on the main wx page .

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Posted by  
on February 17, 2006, 10:42 pm
ok thanks I will check back in the morning. Doesn't look like we will be going. Don't slide well on ice lol.You just nver know about the weather I gues that it why it is so interesting. Maybe soomone will be on in the morning that lives closer and knows about roads. I just remember the bridges on 78. that could mean Ice!!!
Thnaks everyone have a good night

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Posted by Keith  
on February 18, 2006, 4:53 am
I wonder why Etowah, Cherokee and Blount are the only counties under a winter wx warning? At least according to the map on um, another television station. I was channel surfing and saw it.

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Posted by Johnathan  
on February 19, 2006, 9:41 am
Sure is cold outside...its STILL 29º out here in Pinson at almost 10a.m.

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