Southeast Severe Storms Symposium Continues

Justyn Jackson (MSU grad student going into operational meteorology) is presenting a paper now on thermodynamics associated with Southeast U.S. tornado events....

Coming up after the lunch break is Dr. Harold Brooks of NSSL (National Severe Storms Lab) with a "global view of severe thundderstorms" and "possible future changes". We will also be hearing from people like our friend Jeff Craven and Jon Davies.

From Justyn's paper:

Some parameters and how they relate to tornado types across the Deep South:

Mean surface based CAPE for certain tornado types in Dixie Alley

Non-tornadic supercells: 1078
F0-F1 tornadoes 1468
F2-F5 tornadoes 1593

Mean 0-3 km CAPE for tornado types in Dixie Alley

Non-tornadic supercaclls 64
F0-F1 tornadoes 61
F2-F5 tornadoes 70

(seems like 0-3 KM cape might not be a big help in forecasting tornado types)


Mean 0-1 km SRH for tornado types in Dixie Alley

Non-tornadic supercells: 70
F0-F1 142
F2-F5 240

(very helpful in forecasting tornado types)

Mean EHI for tornado types in Dixie Alley

Non-tornadic 0.53
F1-F2 1.24
F3-F5 2.16

(very helpful again in forecasting tornado types... might be the best parameter)

LCL heights were not really helpful in determining tornado type (despite perception it is)

LFC heights were also not helpful in determining tornado type

Bottom line here is that we need to pay more attention to the Energy-Helicity Index (EHI) on tornado days... EHI values over 2.00 could mean a real risk of strong/violent tornadoes. Good research!

Lunch break time... more posts this afternoon as we get rolling again.