Back In The Saddle

The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Back in the saddle this morning after some time away at the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium at Mississippi State. You can scroll down to see notes from the conference, and pictures from the Friday night eat-a-thon. I will post a few more pictures a little later this morning from the Little Dooey BBQ party Saturday night.

On to business...

We are looking at dry weather for the first half of the week. Lots of sunshine today, tomorrow, and Wednesday, but temperatures will be changeable. We go into the upper 60s today, but temperatures tomorrow will be about 8 degrees cooler as a northwest flow aloft pulls down cooler air. But, on Wednesday, we warm up again and go back into the upper 60s, or maybe even low 70s. Mid 70s are likely on Thursday as the warming trend continues.

THURSDAY NIGHT SEVERE THREAT? That is the buzz on the streets. Yes, there will be some threat of severe weather here late Thursday and Thursday night. But, I am not convinced it will be a "red letter" type severe weather day for Alabama.

The GFS is trending toward a neutral tilt to the trough, and really moves the surface low far north of Alabama. The UKMET has been also suggesting this type of setup. And, all models are not suggesting a great amount of instability. But, I do think the models are underestimating the amount of instability, which is fairly common 108 hours away from a spring event here.

Most likely, the severe weather threat will beging during the day Thursday over Mississippi, where a few isolated tornadoes will be possible. Then, the storms should organize into a long squall line and move across Alabama Thursday night. With the loss of daytime heating, and the surface low passing so far north of here (the GFS shows it over the U.P. of Michigan at midnight Thursday night), it sure looks like our main threat will come from strong straight line winds within the line of storms.

For now it looks like the greatest threat of severe weather in Alabama will come from about 6:00 Thursday evening through 3:00 Friday morning.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: After the round of storms Thursday night, sure looks like we will be dry and very mild during these three days. Temperatures well up in the 70s, maybe reaching the low 80s. I guess you might consider a small risk of a shower over West Alabama, but heights actually rise and I think most of the state will be dry.

LONG RANGE: The mean upper trough continues over the southwest U.S., firing occasional waves through the plains states. Seems like most of these stay west of here until the main system finally lifts out around March 15-17. The GFS paints a pattern similar to the one we expect this Thursday night; a surface low that winds up over Michigan with a squall line racing through the state around March 17. Needless to say, this is out there in voodoo land and I sure don't want to nail down details so far in advance.

There is also hint of a significant late season cold snap in the March 19-21 time frame over the eastern U.S.

HOUSEKEEPING: Anytime we have the threat of severe weather or winter storms, passion runs high for those who love weather. We do remind you of our policy on comments on this blog:

*No personal attacks
*No constant posting of current conditions
*Please don't post your own weather discussions... although we welcome your comments on our thoughts
*Please don't post NWS warnings or other products; those can be found easily by those who want to see them!

TODAY: Headed out to see the kids at Valley Elementary School today (in Pelham)... will be on the office for the afternoon map discussion video which will be ready by 3:30!