The Wednesday morning video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
I encourage everyone to really watch the video today since it explains our thinking much better, but I think we need to begin raising some flags for the first half of March concerning the possibility of very cold weather and one or two winter storm threats. We have thousands of readers here who are business planners, work for major utilities, and are involved in emergency management. They understand the pitfalls in long range outlooks and how to use them, and this is especially for them.
FIRST OFF... the short term stuff...
*Rain should become widespread tonight and tomorrow morning as a wave moves along the stalled front just south of here. Rainfall amounts of one-half to one inch are likely tonight and tomorrow. Maybe some thunder, but no severe weather for us.
*Friday and Saturday still look cool and dry, and we will continue to mention the risk of some light rain on Sunday as an overrunning pattern begins.
MARCH ARRIVES WITH A WINTER BLAST
The GFS is now in agreement with the ECMWF. A major long wave trough sets up over the east early next week, with the first phase of cold air arriving Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. The GFS output statistics is advertising 50s and 30s for those days, and it is out to lunch (it tends to skew toward climatology in the late periods). It should be much colder. How cold? Just too early to say. Long time readers here know I don't like to get into details beyond seven days... just not enough skill. But you can sure get an idea of patterns and trends, and the trend for the first half of March is COLD.
With cold air in place, the first potential threat for a winter storm will come at the end of next week with a nice low forming in the Gulf. It is simply too early to be specific, but the pattern would suggest parts of the deep south with some snow or ice potential in the March 4-6 time frame. We might see just a simple cold rain here, however, with critical thickness values right on the borderline. The Gulf coast should get a good soaking.
Once that system passes, the cold air is reinforced. We are talking a cross polar flow if the GFS is correct, and we might be headed for some record lows in the March 8-12 time frame. And, just maybe another winter storm threat in there somewhere.
The North Atlantic Oscillation forecast supports all of this with a strongly negative look during the first half of March, which favors a deep eastern U.S. trough.
Don't let the warm weather of recent days fool you, winter is far from over. And for the snow fans, you day could very well be coming....
Can this outlook be wrong? Sure. Only a fool would answer no to that question. But there is enough evidence this morning in this office to begin the process of preparing for a period of cold, maybe very cold, weather during the first 15 days of March. Stay tuned!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
I encourage everyone to really watch the video today since it explains our thinking much better, but I think we need to begin raising some flags for the first half of March concerning the possibility of very cold weather and one or two winter storm threats. We have thousands of readers here who are business planners, work for major utilities, and are involved in emergency management. They understand the pitfalls in long range outlooks and how to use them, and this is especially for them.
FIRST OFF... the short term stuff...
*Rain should become widespread tonight and tomorrow morning as a wave moves along the stalled front just south of here. Rainfall amounts of one-half to one inch are likely tonight and tomorrow. Maybe some thunder, but no severe weather for us.
*Friday and Saturday still look cool and dry, and we will continue to mention the risk of some light rain on Sunday as an overrunning pattern begins.
MARCH ARRIVES WITH A WINTER BLAST
The GFS is now in agreement with the ECMWF. A major long wave trough sets up over the east early next week, with the first phase of cold air arriving Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. The GFS output statistics is advertising 50s and 30s for those days, and it is out to lunch (it tends to skew toward climatology in the late periods). It should be much colder. How cold? Just too early to say. Long time readers here know I don't like to get into details beyond seven days... just not enough skill. But you can sure get an idea of patterns and trends, and the trend for the first half of March is COLD.
With cold air in place, the first potential threat for a winter storm will come at the end of next week with a nice low forming in the Gulf. It is simply too early to be specific, but the pattern would suggest parts of the deep south with some snow or ice potential in the March 4-6 time frame. We might see just a simple cold rain here, however, with critical thickness values right on the borderline. The Gulf coast should get a good soaking.
Once that system passes, the cold air is reinforced. We are talking a cross polar flow if the GFS is correct, and we might be headed for some record lows in the March 8-12 time frame. And, just maybe another winter storm threat in there somewhere.
The North Atlantic Oscillation forecast supports all of this with a strongly negative look during the first half of March, which favors a deep eastern U.S. trough.
Don't let the warm weather of recent days fool you, winter is far from over. And for the snow fans, you day could very well be coming....
Can this outlook be wrong? Sure. Only a fool would answer no to that question. But there is enough evidence this morning in this office to begin the process of preparing for a period of cold, maybe very cold, weather during the first 15 days of March. Stay tuned!
on February 23, 2005, 8:15 am
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