Eyes To The West

March 6, 2006, 2:58 pm
Posted by James Spann in Weather Discussions
Rating: 0/5   Votes : 0
The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

SHORT TERM: Temperatures will be about ten degrees cooler tonight and tomorrow; but dry air means the sky should stay generally clear. Colder spots will have a light freeze early tomorrow; and afternoon highs will be close to 60 degrees.

SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION: We are still concerned over the possibility of a line of severe thunderstorms racing through Alabama Thursday evening... still looks like the greatest risk of severe storms will come from about 6:00 Thursday evening through 3:00 Friday morning. And, the primary concern is for straight line winds along the line.

Guess the one item that really stands out is the atmospheric wind field with this system. Models are suggesting winds about 5,000 feet off the ground could exceed 80 knots, which is a screaming low level jet. The surface pressure gradient is also very tight, and winds by Thursday afternoon will likely be in the 20 to 30 mph range over the northern half of the state, even with no thunderstorms involved.

I still think the greatest threat of tornadoes will come Thursday afternoon over North Mississippi and West Tennessee, with everything folding into a long squall line that will race through Alabama Thursday night with the potential for widespread wind damage. Isolated tornadoes along the line can't be ruled out, but straight line wind issues will be the big problem based on what we see now.

Needless to say, we encourage everyone to keep an eye on the blog here in coming days for the latest on this potentially dangerous weather situation for the Deep South. Our friends over at the Jackson NWS office believe a moderate risk will be required for their state on Thursday, and perhaps a high risk if instability values exceed model projections.

NWS JAN (Jackson, MS) just reported the 18z NAM, at 15z Thu for JAN, has 0-3 km SRH of 800 with a Total Totals of 50 and 1,700 j/kg of CAPE. Impressive!

FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY: A strong ridge over Florida will try to nose in here, and if the ridge wins the battle we are talking highs at or over 80 degrees this weekend with a good supply of sunshine and little chance of rain. However, a disturbed southwest flow aloft is just to the west of here, and if that happens to become a player we might have a few showers and storms, mainly on the far western side of the state. I think the ridge will be the big player for us this weekend, and for now we will keep the chance of rain on the low side.

LONGER RANGE: Really more questions that answers right now concerning the mid-month period. The big trough over the western part of the nation will eject a series of waves northeast toward the plains states and the midwest U.S.... seems like the GFS thinks most of those will stay west of Alabama. I am not totally convinced that is correct. You have to also think once the main upper trough lifts out we will have some active weather. Lets get the Thursday night event on past us and we can focus on coming attractions. The GFS has also backed off on the cold snap in the March 17-20 time frame. But, that also might be wrong. Stay tuned...

Sure enjoyed speaking over at Valley Elementary in Pelham today; those 1st graders will be featured on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News today at 5:00... be watching for them!

The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...
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Posted by   www
on March 6, 2006, 5:29 pm
hey James or anybody, is there a site I can get Skew-T diagrams for Alabama.

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Posted by   www
on March 6, 2006, 8:35 pm
Kenny,
This skew t link is from James' Weather Compamy site.

http://www.wxcaster.com/skewt.htm

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Posted by  
on March 6, 2006, 6:05 pm
Hey James now don't take this wrong but I can't help but say don't you think you need to calm down a bit ?) I know that all you are doing is just trying to get us ready for bad weather. But there are a lot of people on this blog the read it everyday and someone looking at what you say might happen well they might be scared to death. So I think what needs to be done is just say we might see some rough weather Thursday night stay tuned. Now I'm not bashing you or anybody else I just think we need to calm down some.

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Posted by John T.  
on March 6, 2006, 6:58 pm
The main part of this blog is for the 3340 weather team to give us the bold truth & their honest opinion of what can happen . This is why most of us stay glued to it . Them giving us the 'heads up' should , in my opinion , take part of the "scare " out of it --to a point . James has done just this . He has stated , if some of you will read (not naming names ) that we will have some rough weather , " could " has for the most part been ruled out by ALL the stations & other meteorolgoist . James has again also said that we might have some isolated tornadoes ( again, honest opinion & the truth ) BUT , probably NOT a 'red letter day ' . Let the meteorologist whom ARE JUST THAT do their job , this is why we depend and trust in this blog and them . If you are not one , sometimes you just need to keep your opinions to your-self on whom is getting carried away or excited . The wrest of us want the truth about the weather , scarry or not . Thank You .

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Posted by   www
on March 6, 2006, 7:43 pm
nicely put john t :)

forgive the type o's.... i am being a lazy typer tonight :)

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Posted by   www
on March 6, 2006, 7:13 pm
Mr Mills. I stated this on the morning blog and will again. If you want to quote weather forecasts, use James' and not the Weather Channels. If you want to bash James and his ways of talking about the weather, find another blog site for weather or watch FOX 6 or NBC 13.

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Posted by   www
on March 6, 2006, 7:17 pm
Also I appreciate the rules being spelled out because everyone has observations and everyone has opinions. If you want to post observations I would assume the weather watcher area would be perfect for that. If you want to posts other forecasts then go to those sites because this one is the only one I can come to where you get 4 to weather opinions from one staff that are all on the same page but state how they feel. If I wanted generic run to run GFS forecasts I would turn on TWC and sit and watch it as they 7 day forecasts swing toward averages at the end. THANK YOU FOR THE RULES!!!!!!! I doubt you would have stated that Mr Mills had the rules not been laid out this morning and you had not been called out on it. THANK FOR A GREAT WEATHER SITE GUYS!!!!

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Posted by Mike From Tallapoosa County  
on March 6, 2006, 9:34 pm
I agree with you Chris T. I don't really have a problem with people posting current observations during snow or severe weather events. However, on a day like today, I don't really care if it is 47 degrees in B'ham. I come to this site because I respect and value 3340. If I want too know what TWC (i.e. infomercial) is saying, I will go to their website. In short, if you post something on this site, bring something to the table.

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Posted by   www
on March 6, 2006, 7:30 pm
Once more, there have been a lot of people on the blog that liked hourly wx conditions durring severe weather, as well as from other people. to check my current conditions in Trussville, that are NO LONGER posted on this blog, please click on 'www' of my post.

Thanks

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Posted by  
on March 6, 2006, 8:49 pm
You have a very good site, Kenny! Nice work! Don't let anyone push you away from meteorology. You will be good at it!

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Posted by  
on March 6, 2006, 7:47 pm
I think everybody on the wx team is doing a great job by informing us what might happen according to the models, history, and their instincts. It wouldn't be a bad thing if someone was scared b/c they would then be motivated to be prepared to protect their life and property. Again its just information for the public by intelligent people who vlaue our lives. Not meant to scare anybody.

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Posted by Greg  
on March 6, 2006, 9:41 pm
I mean even if its a thunderstorm.....Look what this thunderstorm does....Tornado or no Tornado this is just a thunderstorm.....This is the main reason people need to watch the weather. Copy and paste this in your browser if the link doesnt work, its a short clip.

http://www.ultimatechase.com/Video_Library/Hurricanes/Extreme_Dow
nburst_Stream.htm

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Posted by  
on March 6, 2006, 9:56 pm
Thats a real good website Kenny. I like the radar you have on there its much better than the one ive been using.

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Posted by   www
on March 6, 2006, 10:01 pm
Thank you for all that liked my site. Remember to keep checking the current conditions on my page every hour from 4pm Thursday till the severe weather event is over.
Note* watch the dewpoint trends.


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Posted by  
on March 6, 2006, 10:04 pm
Well let me say this I WAS NOT BASHING ANYONE all I was saying was there are a lot of people on this blog that can get upset when someone talks bad weather. So let's wait and see what the pattern will look like Thursday. And I WILL WATCH JAMES AND THE TEAM WHEN THE WEATHER IS BAD I will not watch the weather channel or any other.

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Posted by  
on March 7, 2006, 5:51 am
So you're saying that if a tornado is coming they should not issue warnings, because it might scare someone?

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Posted by   www
on March 7, 2006, 1:53 pm
I agree about knowing ahead of time if we are going to have bad weather or not.

If someone is scared, then they are scared. There is nothing anyone can do about that. At least 33/40 are honest about what COULD happen with an approaching wx system.

It helps those who travel for their jobs to be able to plan ahead.

Keep up the excellent work James. :)


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Posted by  
on March 8, 2006, 8:17 am
Mr Mills,
I get the point that instead of not telling people the truth, then we should let people get hurt or severely injured in severe thunderstorms or tornados? I gather that is what you are saying. All that the 33/40 weather team EVER does is tell us the truth and lay out what HAS THE POTENTIAL to come our way and people heed warnings. It is up to the people who are reading it (LIKE YOU) to take it and interpret it wrong! Just like the person who runs to the grocery store and buys up all the bread, milk, water and everything else you can think of whenever there is just a mention of a WINTER STORM WATCH. Mr Mills, you know people on this blog are going to come to the defense of the 33/40 weather team whenever there is a hint of telling them to CALM DOWN or anything else. If you don't like the way, they lay the weather out, then go to another blog (I bet you can't find one) on another TV station and lay your feelings out there. Sounds like you are the one that needs to calm down. Keep your comments to yourself.

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