Looks like an interesting severe weather set-up for parts of the Deep South Thursday and Thursday night.
A vigorous upper air storm system should trigger numerous thunderstorms across Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and the western part of Tennessee during the day Thursday. A number of parameters will be in place for tornadoes in this region, and we might be dealing with our first significant spring severe weather event of 2006. Then, we think the storms will evolve into a long squall line that will race through Alabama Thursday night.
At this point, it looks like the greatest risk of severe storms in Alabama will come from about 6:00 p.m. Thursday through 3:00 a.m. Friday. A few severe storms could creep into the northwest part of the state late Thursday afternoon. For now, it looks like the biggest threat will come from damaging straight line winds with the squall line. Wind fields, both surface and aloft, will be very strong. At 5,000 feet off the ground, winds could approach 90 miles per hour ahead of the system, and winds near the surface could easily gust over 30 mph at times Thursday, even away from thunderstorms. There is concern that there could be widespread wind damage with this line Thursday night if computer models are correct. But, severe weather events are typically driven by mesoscale weather features which we won’t really know about until Thursday morning.
Since we have not had a major spring severe weather outbreak in a number of years, we recommend all Alabama families review their safety plan at home. And, of course, have a good way of getting tornado warnings in the event they are needed. Don’t forget about severe thunderstorm warnings as well… they can be very, very important!
A vigorous upper air storm system should trigger numerous thunderstorms across Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and the western part of Tennessee during the day Thursday. A number of parameters will be in place for tornadoes in this region, and we might be dealing with our first significant spring severe weather event of 2006. Then, we think the storms will evolve into a long squall line that will race through Alabama Thursday night.
At this point, it looks like the greatest risk of severe storms in Alabama will come from about 6:00 p.m. Thursday through 3:00 a.m. Friday. A few severe storms could creep into the northwest part of the state late Thursday afternoon. For now, it looks like the biggest threat will come from damaging straight line winds with the squall line. Wind fields, both surface and aloft, will be very strong. At 5,000 feet off the ground, winds could approach 90 miles per hour ahead of the system, and winds near the surface could easily gust over 30 mph at times Thursday, even away from thunderstorms. There is concern that there could be widespread wind damage with this line Thursday night if computer models are correct. But, severe weather events are typically driven by mesoscale weather features which we won’t really know about until Thursday morning.
Since we have not had a major spring severe weather outbreak in a number of years, we recommend all Alabama families review their safety plan at home. And, of course, have a good way of getting tornado warnings in the event they are needed. Don’t forget about severe thunderstorm warnings as well… they can be very, very important!