The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Sure looks like mid-March will serve up a wide variety of weather here in Alabama this year, as usual.
Lets break it down in timeline fashion:
TODAY/WEDNESDAY: Very nice weather today. Ample sunshine, cooler, with highs in the low 60s. Tomorrow will be dry and warmer as we head back into the low 70s.
SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT: Severe storms still look likely for the Deep South as a vigorous upper air system comes out of the southern plains. SPC has a large slight risk area on Thursday from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio River, including all of Alabama.
The most impressive part of the system is the wind field in the lower levels; the NAM runs the 850 mb (around 5,000 feet) speed to 68 knots over Birmingham Thursday afternoon. This screaming low level jet will mean a windy day on Thursday, with winds at the surface possibly gusting to 30 mph even with no storms involved.
As usual in an early season system, the amount of instability is in question. The 06Z NAM has a max surface based CAPE value here of only 330 j/kg. I think that is a little on the low side, and we have seen values to almost 1000 on other runs.
I still think our primary threat will be from damaging straight line winds along a squall line that races through here. The models seems to be a little faster now, and we will adjust the timing a bit in our forecast. It now looks like the greatest risk of severe weather in Alabama will come from about 4:00 p.m. Thursday until 2:00 a.m. (early Friday morning).
Guess we can't rule out a few isolated tornados here, but it seems the greatest tornado threat would be northwest of Alabama Thursday afternoon... places like North Mississippi and West Tennessee.
With any thunderstorm event in Alabama, you know our slogan: "expect the unexpected". So, watch for changes in this forecast here on the blog as we get closer to the event.
THE WEEKEND: I was probably too early in downplaying the chance of rain over the weekend yesterday (maybe too stupid
. The new model runs hang up a surface boundary around here on Saturday and Sunday, and we will need to mention some chance of showers or storms on both days. No wash-out, but be aware that a passing shower or two is certainly possible.
NEXT WEEK: I think the 06Z GFS has a great handle on coming attractions next week. The big trough in the southwest U.S. lifts out, and brings another risk of strong to severe storms around Tuesday (March 14). Then, a pretty good late season cold snap is ahead for the latter half of next week. How cold? First guess would highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Maybe a day where we don't get out of the 40s. And, when we go clear and calm a good freeze seems likely toward the end of the week or the following weekend.
WESTERN NOTES: Check out that cold upper low out west over the weekend. Maybe a few snow flakes for the Los Angeles basin? Our pals in Flagstaff might also finally see some overdue snow (one of our affiliate radio stations covers Flagstaff and I forecast weather out that way as well).
TODAY: Will be out in Huffman today seeing the kids at Our Lady of Lourdes school... will be back in the office for the afternoon video which will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Sure looks like mid-March will serve up a wide variety of weather here in Alabama this year, as usual.
Lets break it down in timeline fashion:
TODAY/WEDNESDAY: Very nice weather today. Ample sunshine, cooler, with highs in the low 60s. Tomorrow will be dry and warmer as we head back into the low 70s.
SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT: Severe storms still look likely for the Deep South as a vigorous upper air system comes out of the southern plains. SPC has a large slight risk area on Thursday from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio River, including all of Alabama.
The most impressive part of the system is the wind field in the lower levels; the NAM runs the 850 mb (around 5,000 feet) speed to 68 knots over Birmingham Thursday afternoon. This screaming low level jet will mean a windy day on Thursday, with winds at the surface possibly gusting to 30 mph even with no storms involved.
As usual in an early season system, the amount of instability is in question. The 06Z NAM has a max surface based CAPE value here of only 330 j/kg. I think that is a little on the low side, and we have seen values to almost 1000 on other runs.
I still think our primary threat will be from damaging straight line winds along a squall line that races through here. The models seems to be a little faster now, and we will adjust the timing a bit in our forecast. It now looks like the greatest risk of severe weather in Alabama will come from about 4:00 p.m. Thursday until 2:00 a.m. (early Friday morning).
Guess we can't rule out a few isolated tornados here, but it seems the greatest tornado threat would be northwest of Alabama Thursday afternoon... places like North Mississippi and West Tennessee.
With any thunderstorm event in Alabama, you know our slogan: "expect the unexpected". So, watch for changes in this forecast here on the blog as we get closer to the event.
THE WEEKEND: I was probably too early in downplaying the chance of rain over the weekend yesterday (maybe too stupid
. The new model runs hang up a surface boundary around here on Saturday and Sunday, and we will need to mention some chance of showers or storms on both days. No wash-out, but be aware that a passing shower or two is certainly possible.NEXT WEEK: I think the 06Z GFS has a great handle on coming attractions next week. The big trough in the southwest U.S. lifts out, and brings another risk of strong to severe storms around Tuesday (March 14). Then, a pretty good late season cold snap is ahead for the latter half of next week. How cold? First guess would highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Maybe a day where we don't get out of the 40s. And, when we go clear and calm a good freeze seems likely toward the end of the week or the following weekend.
WESTERN NOTES: Check out that cold upper low out west over the weekend. Maybe a few snow flakes for the Los Angeles basin? Our pals in Flagstaff might also finally see some overdue snow (one of our affiliate radio stations covers Flagstaff and I forecast weather out that way as well).
TODAY: Will be out in Huffman today seeing the kids at Our Lady of Lourdes school... will be back in the office for the afternoon video which will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
on March 7, 2006, 6:28 am
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