The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
This will be a busy discussion. And a little long...
TOMORROW: Beautiful day. Partly sunny and warmer; look for low 70s.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: We are still looking at the possibility of an outbreak of severe thunderstorms across the Deep South, including much of Alabama, Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as a vigorous early spring storm system approaches.
Severe storms should increase during the day Thursday to the west of us, over Mississippi, West Tennessee, North Louisiana, and East Arkansas. Some of the severe storms could ease into the western part of Alabama by mid to late afternoon.
Lets look at some of the severe weather parameters for Birmingham valid for 6:00 p.m. local time Thursday:
Surface based CAPE: 878
Lifted Index: -2.9
0 to 3 km SRH (Storm Relative Helicity): 491
SWEAT Index: 411
850 mb wind speed: 68 knots
We also note the 0 to 1 km EHI (Energy Helicity Index) peaks at 3.7 around Smith Lake at 6:00 p.m. EHI values greater than 2 are often associated with tornado outbreaks. One paper at the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium this past weekend suggested EHI is a very useful severe weather parameter for "Dixie Alley".
I get many e-mails asking about terms we use here... I refer all of you to the weather glossary here:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
And, a helpful look at various severe weather parameters here:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/indices.php
What does all of this mean?
I still think we will be dealing with a squall line Thursday night sometime between 6:00 p.m. and midnight, with the potential for damaging wind along the line. The lower wind fields are screaming with this system, and even with no storms involved winds could easily gust to 30 mph. Maybe higher along ridge tops.
Some of the 12Z data also suggests some potential for a few isolated storms ahead of the line over West Alabama Thursday afternoon (3:00 to 6:00 p.m.)... these would have the potential to become supercells and produce tornadoes.
The big question is instability... the 12Z models have the numbers coming in a little higher (a more unstable atmosphere). You really want to see dewpoints of 65 or higher for a classic spring outbreak here; I think dewpoints on Thursday evening will be closer to 60. Early season systems often are a little lacking in the thermodynamic department. But, the values we see now certainly support the chance of severe storms.
SO... once again, we are now looking at potential for severe storms across West Alabama Thursday afternoon from 3:00 until 6:00 p.m. (mainly west of I-65)... some potential for isolated tornadoes there. Then, all of the state will deal with a fast moving squall line from about 6:00 p.m. until midnight. The storms should weaken a bit as they move into more stable air over East Alabama, but even in places like Anniston and Gadsden some strong winds will be possible.
We will be updating our thoughts here on the blog... so stay tuned.
THE WEEKEND: As I mentioned here this morning, we will need to include the chance of a few showers and storms over the weekend. No wash out, but a moisture axis will remain parked over Alabama, and a disturbed southwest flow aloft will bring showers or storms from time to time. Severe weather is not likely, and the sun should be out at times. If we see a decent amount of sun, we might be close to 80 Saturday and Sunday afternoon.
NEXT WEEK: Model mumbo jumbo continues. The 12Z GFS now shows the southwest U.S. trough coming out in a number of pieces again next week. I am not sure this is correct; I think the 06Z run was much more realistic. I still think we might have a severe weather threat in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame next week, followed by a sharp late season cold snap over the latter half of the week (Thursday-Friday). But, confidence in details is very small with all of the model madness. One way or another it should be a very interesting week.
RADAR ISSUES: The Birmingham NWS NEXRAD system will be down this week (maintenance)...with active weather approaching I remind you ABC 33/40 owns and operates a C-Band radar atop Double Oak Mountain in northern Shelby County (Pinpoint Doppler Radar)... and it will be up and running through the event. Lots of TV stations use NWS NEXRAD data and call it "their own"radar. We have the luxury of using both our own system, and NEXRAD!
You can access single images here:
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/doppler.html
And, watch the radar live in streaming video from the link on our main weather page:
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/
When the live stream comes up, you can move your cursor over the video box and icons will pop up that give you the option to view the radar in the "Real Player", which allows you to make the video full screen, or any size you like. We also use this stream when we have "wall to wall" tornado coverage going on. This will prove to be extremely helpful during this severe weather season.
KIDCAM: Sure enjoyed seeing the little ones today at Our Lady of Lourdes school in Huffman... watch for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News!
I will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... watch for updates here on the blog as we get closer to the Thursday/Thursday night event!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
This will be a busy discussion. And a little long...
TOMORROW: Beautiful day. Partly sunny and warmer; look for low 70s.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: We are still looking at the possibility of an outbreak of severe thunderstorms across the Deep South, including much of Alabama, Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as a vigorous early spring storm system approaches.
Severe storms should increase during the day Thursday to the west of us, over Mississippi, West Tennessee, North Louisiana, and East Arkansas. Some of the severe storms could ease into the western part of Alabama by mid to late afternoon.
Lets look at some of the severe weather parameters for Birmingham valid for 6:00 p.m. local time Thursday:
Surface based CAPE: 878
Lifted Index: -2.9
0 to 3 km SRH (Storm Relative Helicity): 491
SWEAT Index: 411
850 mb wind speed: 68 knots
We also note the 0 to 1 km EHI (Energy Helicity Index) peaks at 3.7 around Smith Lake at 6:00 p.m. EHI values greater than 2 are often associated with tornado outbreaks. One paper at the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium this past weekend suggested EHI is a very useful severe weather parameter for "Dixie Alley".
I get many e-mails asking about terms we use here... I refer all of you to the weather glossary here:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
And, a helpful look at various severe weather parameters here:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/indices.php
What does all of this mean?
I still think we will be dealing with a squall line Thursday night sometime between 6:00 p.m. and midnight, with the potential for damaging wind along the line. The lower wind fields are screaming with this system, and even with no storms involved winds could easily gust to 30 mph. Maybe higher along ridge tops.
Some of the 12Z data also suggests some potential for a few isolated storms ahead of the line over West Alabama Thursday afternoon (3:00 to 6:00 p.m.)... these would have the potential to become supercells and produce tornadoes.
The big question is instability... the 12Z models have the numbers coming in a little higher (a more unstable atmosphere). You really want to see dewpoints of 65 or higher for a classic spring outbreak here; I think dewpoints on Thursday evening will be closer to 60. Early season systems often are a little lacking in the thermodynamic department. But, the values we see now certainly support the chance of severe storms.
SO... once again, we are now looking at potential for severe storms across West Alabama Thursday afternoon from 3:00 until 6:00 p.m. (mainly west of I-65)... some potential for isolated tornadoes there. Then, all of the state will deal with a fast moving squall line from about 6:00 p.m. until midnight. The storms should weaken a bit as they move into more stable air over East Alabama, but even in places like Anniston and Gadsden some strong winds will be possible.
We will be updating our thoughts here on the blog... so stay tuned.
THE WEEKEND: As I mentioned here this morning, we will need to include the chance of a few showers and storms over the weekend. No wash out, but a moisture axis will remain parked over Alabama, and a disturbed southwest flow aloft will bring showers or storms from time to time. Severe weather is not likely, and the sun should be out at times. If we see a decent amount of sun, we might be close to 80 Saturday and Sunday afternoon.
NEXT WEEK: Model mumbo jumbo continues. The 12Z GFS now shows the southwest U.S. trough coming out in a number of pieces again next week. I am not sure this is correct; I think the 06Z run was much more realistic. I still think we might have a severe weather threat in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame next week, followed by a sharp late season cold snap over the latter half of the week (Thursday-Friday). But, confidence in details is very small with all of the model madness. One way or another it should be a very interesting week.
RADAR ISSUES: The Birmingham NWS NEXRAD system will be down this week (maintenance)...with active weather approaching I remind you ABC 33/40 owns and operates a C-Band radar atop Double Oak Mountain in northern Shelby County (Pinpoint Doppler Radar)... and it will be up and running through the event. Lots of TV stations use NWS NEXRAD data and call it "their own"radar. We have the luxury of using both our own system, and NEXRAD!
You can access single images here:
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/doppler.html
And, watch the radar live in streaming video from the link on our main weather page:
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/
When the live stream comes up, you can move your cursor over the video box and icons will pop up that give you the option to view the radar in the "Real Player", which allows you to make the video full screen, or any size you like. We also use this stream when we have "wall to wall" tornado coverage going on. This will prove to be extremely helpful during this severe weather season.
KIDCAM: Sure enjoyed seeing the little ones today at Our Lady of Lourdes school in Huffman... watch for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News!
I will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... watch for updates here on the blog as we get closer to the Thursday/Thursday night event!
on March 7, 2006, 2:51 pm
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