A Soaking Tonight; Winter Returns Next Week

The Wednesday afternoon web video is online and ready for viewing:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Everyone wants to talk about the March cold pattern and winter storm threats, but first... lets talk short term weather:

*Looks like a good soaking tonight. A large mass of rain and storms is moving into west Alabama, and rainfall amounts of around one inch look likely tonight along the I-20 corridor. Some stronger storms are possible south of I-20 tonight, but I don't expect any serious problems with severe storms despite that severe thunderstorm watch over south Mississippi. The rain should pretty much be over by midday tomorrow.

*The weather should be dry on Friday and Saturday, with some light rain possible by Sunday as overrunning develops. We will also watch for signs of a wedge pattern with cooler air slipping in here from the east.

LONG TERM

A cold and deep upper low is forecast to form over the Great Lakes early next week, and the first blast of cold air should roll in here by Tuesday and Wednesday. Will this cold air be deep enough for a winter storm threat at the end of next week? Too early to tell.

A storm system should pass through the deep south at the end of next week, in the March 3-5 time frame. I fully expect a significant winter weather threat for parts of the southern states; maybe Tennessee, maybe north Alabama. We will just have to wait on this one. If we do not get any snow or ice it should be a good soaking, with a likely change to rain on the back of the storm as it moves northeast.

The next shot of cold air moves in following the departing storm, in the March 5-7 time frame. Then, the GFS shows an array of waves and storms beyond that, but there is no skill in trying to resolve details so far in advance.

The screaming message is that the first half of March looks very cold, and I fully expect one, maybe two winter storm THREATS in the March 3-15 time frame.

Time to get back to the radar... we will be watching for signs of strong storms down across the southern part of our viewing area, from about Livingston to Demopolis to Marion to Clanton to Roanoke. NWS Birmingham just issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Macon county...
Posted by Margie Richardson  
on February 23, 2005, 3:38 pm
Hey James or JB.....The web video is the same one from this morning:)

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Posted by Margie Richardson  
on February 23, 2005, 4:06 pm
All better.....Thanks:)

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Posted by  
on February 23, 2005, 5:02 pm
go away possible winter storm.... our baby is due then , and i really, really do not want to be one of those who has to be rescued and taken to the hospital with the media present...... tee hee hee!!!
i can see it now..... "ice storm baby 2005!!!"
but then again, the gfs may say something totally different by then :-)

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Posted by UA Todd  
on February 23, 2005, 5:13 pm
"Winter storm threat."
"Wintry precipitation."
"Sharp artic blast."


Blah blah blah. We've heard it all before, James.

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Posted by ac  
on February 23, 2005, 8:16 pm
Hmmm...the old saying, "If you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all," comes to mind here.

Hoping for some cooler weather before spring officially gets here!

Thanks for your hard work team!

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Posted by   www
on February 23, 2005, 10:09 pm
I think the problem is the best way to see weather beyond the obvious is the models. If you see the same thing over and over again you have to say something about it. If it does not happen everyone complains, if you don't mention it and it does everyone complains. It is a no win situation. I think Todd is as frustrated as I am. This winter has shown tons of models snow chances with nothing to show for it. Not even a good day of non-accumulating snow flurries which usually happens. I did get icing what one wedge in Trussville that was neat but other than that it has all disappeared off the models before it got here. Maybe this will be the time with NAO and the jets phasing. If not bring on spring so I can fish late March when I am off!!! haha!!!

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Posted by nan  
on February 23, 2005, 11:18 pm
I hope UA Todd comes back to apologize when there are 2 inches of snow on the ground :)

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Posted by   www
on February 24, 2005, 2:53 am
Here in NW Alabama it's been about three years since I've saw snow on the ground. We had gotten into a cycle of about 1 "ground laying" snow a year, then it seemed to dry up, nothing for three years now. Maybe late next week we'll break the cycle.

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Posted by  
on February 24, 2005, 8:09 am
hey UA Todd, can you do any better? NOT!

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