A significant tornado outbreak could occur today across Arkansas, Missouri, southeastern Iowa, much of Illinois and Indiana and western Kentucky and northwesern Tennessee...
The Storm Prediction Center has actually issued a High Risk Outlook for portions of this area today and a Moderate Risk for the rest of that area.
Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from southeastern Missouri through the Ohio RIver Valley to Ohio and Pennsylvania. Flash flooding is occurring across several counties through this area early this morning.
Our first surface low is moving into Michigan, leaving a frontal boundary strung back to Oklahoma. This front will come back north as a warm front today as another surface low moves out onto the Plains.
Storms will begin to develop and intensify by late morning along the warm front over Kansas into Missouri and eventually into Southeast Iowa. An expansive area of instability, especially just south of the warm front, will be available to storms. This activity will shift into Illinois by this evening.
Wind shear will be very high, with even the thought that it could be too high. Look for big tornadoes today over northern Missouri and southeast Iowa where helicity values will be extreme.
Additional storms will fire along the dryline today from eastern Kansas down into eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas. More tornadoes can be expected from this activity, which will move over into Arkansas later.
Finally, supercells could form throughout the warm sector today, perhaps as far south as North Mississippi. Most of the paramteres are in place. It will be a big severe weather day.
Here in Alabama, we should stay high and dry with a warm, conditionally unstable airmass, but nothing to spark storms except for daytime heating. Don't be surprised to see a few small cells pop up like yesterday, but rain chances will be small for us.
Tomorrow will be a different story. As the trough and cold front approaches us, thunderstorms will develop during the day. These storms will have the potential to be supercells with their attendant problems, such as large hail, downburst winds and tornadoes. The SPC has much of Alabama included in a Slight Risk for severe weather Monday.
At least 16 reports of tornadoes were received overnight from northwestern Arkansas to southern Indiana. One of the most significant reports came from St. Mary in Perry County, Missouriwere numerous injuries were reported with people still trapped in mobile homes... It occurred about 9:44 p.m.
The Storm Prediction Center has actually issued a High Risk Outlook for portions of this area today and a Moderate Risk for the rest of that area.
Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from southeastern Missouri through the Ohio RIver Valley to Ohio and Pennsylvania. Flash flooding is occurring across several counties through this area early this morning.
Our first surface low is moving into Michigan, leaving a frontal boundary strung back to Oklahoma. This front will come back north as a warm front today as another surface low moves out onto the Plains.
Storms will begin to develop and intensify by late morning along the warm front over Kansas into Missouri and eventually into Southeast Iowa. An expansive area of instability, especially just south of the warm front, will be available to storms. This activity will shift into Illinois by this evening.
Wind shear will be very high, with even the thought that it could be too high. Look for big tornadoes today over northern Missouri and southeast Iowa where helicity values will be extreme.
Additional storms will fire along the dryline today from eastern Kansas down into eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas. More tornadoes can be expected from this activity, which will move over into Arkansas later.
Finally, supercells could form throughout the warm sector today, perhaps as far south as North Mississippi. Most of the paramteres are in place. It will be a big severe weather day.
Here in Alabama, we should stay high and dry with a warm, conditionally unstable airmass, but nothing to spark storms except for daytime heating. Don't be surprised to see a few small cells pop up like yesterday, but rain chances will be small for us.
Tomorrow will be a different story. As the trough and cold front approaches us, thunderstorms will develop during the day. These storms will have the potential to be supercells with their attendant problems, such as large hail, downburst winds and tornadoes. The SPC has much of Alabama included in a Slight Risk for severe weather Monday.
At least 16 reports of tornadoes were received overnight from northwestern Arkansas to southern Indiana. One of the most significant reports came from St. Mary in Perry County, Missouriwere numerous injuries were reported with people still trapped in mobile homes... It occurred about 9:44 p.m.
on March 12, 2006, 6:51 am
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