The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
No, we won't be in the low 80s today, but upper 60s are likely after a frosty start this morning. Scroll down to read J.B.'s post on early morning temperatures. We do indeed have a cold March morning across Alabama. Dry air means lots of sunshine today.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: A weak cold front will slip through here tomorrow night and will bring some chance of light rain. Moisture is really limited, and I am not sure we will even have enough rain to measure. Maybe nothing more than sprinkles. Best chance of light rain comes from about 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 3:00 a.m. Friday. A fresh supply of cool air slips in here Friday; the NAM is showing a high of only 53 while the GFS has 60. One way or another Friday should be cool and dry.
THE WEEKEND: Another major storm moves into the southwest U.S. I still think most of Alabama will be dry on Saturday, but some rain will ease in here Saturday night in advance of a warm front. Sunday should be a cool and wet day with periods of rain. Temperatures on Sunday will probably hold in the 50s all day.
SPRING BREAK WEEK: Once again... lets break it down:
MONDAY (March 20): Wet is the word. Sure looks like it will be hard for conditions here to favor severe weather, however. Even if we get in the warm sector of the storm, the quality of that warm sector should be poor due to the dry, continental air that has been over much of the southern U.S. this week. And, we might stay in the cool sector. If that is the case, we won't get out of the 50s. A mini-wedge look is showing up, and sometimes that cool air is hard to displace. But, if we do stay in the cool sector elevated storms are likely with a strong, negative tilt trough to the norhwest. But again, all of this mumbo-jumbo aside, Monday and Monday night should be pretty wet.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY (March 21-22): Both days look cool and dry. Highs probably in the 60s.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY (March 23-24): Spring break week should end up wet. Another upper trough comes along, and this time the surface low runs south of us. The 06Z GFS has the low moving from near Mobile to Dothan, with rain likely Thursday into Friday. This same run also suggests a good snow with the system over Tennessee. Keep in mind yesterday's 06Z run had the surface low even more to the south, with some hint of snow into extreme Northwest Alabama. But again, the message here is that the weather looks cool and wet at the end of the week.
It will be fun to see how the GFS handles that "end of next week" system in coming runs. Could somebody around the Deep South be dealing with a late March snow?
TODAY: Busy day for me. I will be speaking to the pre-school kids at my church, Hunter Street Baptist, this morning. Then, I have a long drive up to Gaylesville in Cherokee County where I will be speaking at midday. That is a long drive, but a beautiful drive I always enjoy. Gaylesville is at the northern edge of Weiss Lake. I will do my best to have the afternoon video ready by 3:30!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
No, we won't be in the low 80s today, but upper 60s are likely after a frosty start this morning. Scroll down to read J.B.'s post on early morning temperatures. We do indeed have a cold March morning across Alabama. Dry air means lots of sunshine today.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: A weak cold front will slip through here tomorrow night and will bring some chance of light rain. Moisture is really limited, and I am not sure we will even have enough rain to measure. Maybe nothing more than sprinkles. Best chance of light rain comes from about 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 3:00 a.m. Friday. A fresh supply of cool air slips in here Friday; the NAM is showing a high of only 53 while the GFS has 60. One way or another Friday should be cool and dry.
THE WEEKEND: Another major storm moves into the southwest U.S. I still think most of Alabama will be dry on Saturday, but some rain will ease in here Saturday night in advance of a warm front. Sunday should be a cool and wet day with periods of rain. Temperatures on Sunday will probably hold in the 50s all day.
SPRING BREAK WEEK: Once again... lets break it down:
MONDAY (March 20): Wet is the word. Sure looks like it will be hard for conditions here to favor severe weather, however. Even if we get in the warm sector of the storm, the quality of that warm sector should be poor due to the dry, continental air that has been over much of the southern U.S. this week. And, we might stay in the cool sector. If that is the case, we won't get out of the 50s. A mini-wedge look is showing up, and sometimes that cool air is hard to displace. But, if we do stay in the cool sector elevated storms are likely with a strong, negative tilt trough to the norhwest. But again, all of this mumbo-jumbo aside, Monday and Monday night should be pretty wet.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY (March 21-22): Both days look cool and dry. Highs probably in the 60s.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY (March 23-24): Spring break week should end up wet. Another upper trough comes along, and this time the surface low runs south of us. The 06Z GFS has the low moving from near Mobile to Dothan, with rain likely Thursday into Friday. This same run also suggests a good snow with the system over Tennessee. Keep in mind yesterday's 06Z run had the surface low even more to the south, with some hint of snow into extreme Northwest Alabama. But again, the message here is that the weather looks cool and wet at the end of the week.
It will be fun to see how the GFS handles that "end of next week" system in coming runs. Could somebody around the Deep South be dealing with a late March snow?
TODAY: Busy day for me. I will be speaking to the pre-school kids at my church, Hunter Street Baptist, this morning. Then, I have a long drive up to Gaylesville in Cherokee County where I will be speaking at midday. That is a long drive, but a beautiful drive I always enjoy. Gaylesville is at the northern edge of Weiss Lake. I will do my best to have the afternoon video ready by 3:30!
on March 15, 2006, 6:22 am
Thanks again!!
Mike
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