Just got this note from Jeff Craven over at the Jackson NWS office... since I am so tight on time today his comments are very helpful:
James...looking more and more like you'll be on the mark about early next week. Big polar high with wedge like cool/dry feature stuck in GA/AL and persistent east to southeast flow of modified low level air will make it difficult to get rich low level moisture north of the coastal strip.
However, it does appear that strong warm air advection and frontogenesis above the low level cold dome will keep rain and elevated thunderstorms prevalent. So, your wet and cool idea, particularly for northern and central AL, looks good for Mondayish.
The ECMWF is much slower with this system. Right now, I'm most confident that it will be wet across MS/AL from late in the weekend into Monday and Tuesday. Also, you can be pretty confident that parts of the Central Rocky mountains and central high plains are going to get buried in snow.
GFS suggests 1-2 feet of snow in Wrn/Cntrl Nebraska.
JPC
James...looking more and more like you'll be on the mark about early next week. Big polar high with wedge like cool/dry feature stuck in GA/AL and persistent east to southeast flow of modified low level air will make it difficult to get rich low level moisture north of the coastal strip.
However, it does appear that strong warm air advection and frontogenesis above the low level cold dome will keep rain and elevated thunderstorms prevalent. So, your wet and cool idea, particularly for northern and central AL, looks good for Mondayish.
The ECMWF is much slower with this system. Right now, I'm most confident that it will be wet across MS/AL from late in the weekend into Monday and Tuesday. Also, you can be pretty confident that parts of the Central Rocky mountains and central high plains are going to get buried in snow.
GFS suggests 1-2 feet of snow in Wrn/Cntrl Nebraska.
JPC