WeatherTalk :: General Thoughts :: Too Many Severe Thunderstorm Warnings?

Posted by
on February 27, 2005, 10:41 pm

I think the new polygon warning system that the NWS is experimenting with will help by narrowing the warning area. I have seen a lot of damage come from severe thunderstorms but have not seen a record of the exact wind speed of each situation. I vote to leave the parameters as they currently stand.

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Posted by Brett Adair www
on February 27, 2005, 11:05 pm

Personally, I think the warnings are great because we all have saw severe situations with little or no warning. When we look back on these senarios we must remember why we warn for such small criteria.

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Posted by
on February 27, 2005, 11:09 pm

I may be unusual, but I actually appreciate the warnings as they are now. I am of the mind set that I would rather be safe than sorry. I have been in situations where I would have gone out and possibly endangered myself but thanks to the warnings, I stayed safe at home.

I do think that idea of a "Very Severe" thunderstorm warning would be a good idea.

I think that some people may very well be desensitized. I was over at a friend's house several years ago and the tornado sirens went off and she (and her family) hardly blinked. Her explanation was that it "never effected" them so they stopped paying any mind to it. I think that's a bit of an extreme example but I do suppose there are always going to be folks who don't pay any mind to warnings, so I'd rather have them for those of us who like to keep informed and be prepared!

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Posted by
on February 27, 2005, 11:16 pm

I firmly believe this is true. Especially in the summer time. NWS goes crazy issuing warnings for everything. I've seen warned storms no do anything and storms that weren't warned, go crazy. I believe people will stop taking these seriously.

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Posted by
on February 28, 2005, 12:30 am

My thoughts mirror Maria's to an extent. There will always be people who will ignore warnings, no matter the form or wording. However, for those of us who do pay attention, the differant "classifications" of storms is fairly useless. Our weather changes rapidly in any condition, and the sheer number of times that a thunderstorm might be re-rated passing through central Alabama alone would make it a practice in futility. It would just turn out to be another way to blame weather forecasters and weather centers when something went wrong. People look for a place to lay blame. If , God forbid, a storm that was rated a lower class hurt or killed someone, the first finger to be pointed would be the forecasters for not properly classifying the storm. So, long story short, heres hoping the warnings stay the way they are....and if there are improvements to be made, it will manifest as personal responsibility and common-sense.

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Posted by
on February 28, 2005, 12:48 am

Your current blog (and several others recently) concern me. Have you ever been in a car while
penny sized hail is falling? It sounds like basketballs. How many people have actually experienced 58 mph wind? My educated guess is not many. As a veteran spotter and current Emergency Manager in eastern Mississippi, and seasonal storm chaser, I have come to realize that
wind estimates by the public are nearly always grossly exaggerated. I'm sure you know damage increases as a function of the FORCE of the
wind...which increases exponentially with respect to speed. I will agree that MOST of the time 58 mph wind will not do widespread
damage...but it also doesn't take widespread damage to kill someone. And in some instances 58 mph wind can indeed produce widespread damage. There was a gravity wave in northwestern Louisiana last year which
leveled hundreds of trees in the Red River WMA. Winds were measured at 50 to 60 mph. However, trees had all of there leaves, and some were further burdened with a bumper crop of nuts. Also, the ground was saturated. So should we adjust warning criteria seasonally/or even for each event?

I'm sure you would agree that someone in Los Angeles would consider a storm Severe far sooner than someone in the Southeast or Plains where
75% of the thunderstorms in the US occur yearly. I have relatives that live in Germany and visit beautiful Gulf Shores, AL each summer. Believe me they consider EVERY thunderstorm severe. Just because people become accustomed to something does not mean that it is not dangerous.
(just ask the thousands of drivers killed on our roadways each year). There has to be a national standard for Severe weather or it would confuse people to no end.

I could only imagine passing an imaginary line where the Severe Hail criteria goes from 1/4 inch to 2 inches?? Insurance claims would be denied due to lack of proof that the hail occurred since non severe weather is generally not reported to the NWS. And on the flip side people could easily knock a few holes in their car/home and call it
hail damage...No verification means no documentation. Also, I really don't want golfball sized hail from a "non severe thunderstorm"
hitting me on the head while I am attending an outdoor event.

I do not buy your argument for the "protection of the integrity of the database" either...did the NWS not just change their formula for computing windchill back in 2001? This change was based on
science; specifically with respect to skin moisture and radiational body heat, not just because Joe Public thought it didn't feel that cold.

The goal of the National Weather Service is to protect lives and minimize property damage. I for one think they do an outstanding job. You said "Warnings have increased by 300% since the 1980s" What did your stats say about the reduction in deaths/increase in lead time/and
minimization of damage? I'm really not even sure what point you were trying to make with that statistic because you followed with "severe
weather reports have increased by 250%". This sounds to me like the NWS is not only detecting, but verifying at least 250% more severe events
than they did in the 1980's. Thats OUTSTANDING work!! In my opinion the media is always the ones over-hyping things in the name of ratings.
When I want the real forecast I always log onto Weather.gov!

By the way your station is the only one I have heard in the weather community bring this subject up. Talk to any of the EM's who deal
with the personal end severe weather in their communities and I'm sure they will echo my concerns. Put this debate to rest before you
plant the idea into the publics head that Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are nothing to worry about and get someone hurt!

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Posted by
on February 28, 2005, 1:31 am

John is right - I don't think we should be upset by this increase in warnings by 300%. I'd be interested in the stats about the deaths and damage. I would imagine that they have dropped dramatically since the warnings have increased.

I think that the system is fine as is, to break it down more and reclassify things will only serve to confuse people.

Before I read this entry, I had been thinking that the public awareness of storms and the dangers had been increasing, rather than people becoming desensitized. A lot of people go to this station's Storm Alert programs, and even more watch weather-related specials on tv such as the Weather Channel's Storm Stories.

I would like to think that most people would rather be warned often than not enough. I love the station's policy of coming on with warnings in the viewing area, it's one of the reasons I love this station's weather team.

It's a bit like the "you can't please everyone all of the time" saying, I think any new changes would confuse more people than it would help.

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Posted by
on February 28, 2005, 2:38 am

I THINK WE SHOULD JUST LISTEN TO JAMES SPANN. IF HE SAYS TO TAKE COVER THEN I WILL BUT IF HE DONT I WILL STILL MONITOR THE WEATHER..

MAYBE THE VERY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MIGHT WORK. I DO KNOW PEOPLE DON'T PAY ATTENTION TO THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS ANYMORE.. I GUILTY OF THAT.

I LIVE IN BOAZ NOW AND I DONT HAVE JAMES SPANN AND THE ABC33/40 NEWS.. THAT MAKES ME MAD...

HEY JAMES I CALL MY CABLE COMPANY EVERY WEEK TELLING THEM IF I DONT GET JAMES SPANN AND THE ABC 33/40 NEWS THAT IM GOING TO CUT MY CABLE OFF.. IT HASNT WORKED YET.

JAMES YOUR THE BEST GOD BLESS

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Posted by
on February 28, 2005, 7:11 am

James,

I watch your weather presentation every day. However, when you start showing storms in south and north Alabama with all the emblems and radars on the screen I turn the channel. If the weather does not pertain to the viewing area of ABC3340, why show it?

Thanks,
Vern

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Posted by
on February 28, 2005, 7:34 am

First, I would like to say that I depend on the 33/40 weather team when it comes to weather matters. And, to Vern, where do you think central Alabama's weather comes from??? I appreciate knowing what is going on in other parts of the state - gives me a heads-up on what is headed my way.

As for the warnings - sadly, too many people pay no attention to weather warnings. However, changing the system is not going to change that. You can change the system any way you wish - the same people who do not heed warnings now will not heed them then.

I manage a campground and believe me, I depend on those warnings. It does not take quarter size hail to make conditions unsafe for a family in a tent. It does not take winds over 58 mph to make the campground a dangerous place. I will have to agree with the "rather safe than sorry" idea.

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Posted by
on February 28, 2005, 7:45 am

I think a lot of folks don't pay much attnention to the label "Severe Thunderstorm". Seems like almost every heavy rain event is classified as a Severe Thunderstorm these days.

I do support the idea of a "Very Severe Thunderstorm", possibly with the criteria of 1" hail and 65-70 mph winds.

My wife and I do take notice of the Severe Thunderstorm warnings, but usually they seem to be much ado about nothing much.

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Posted by
on February 28, 2005, 7:52 am

I tend to agree with Matthews comments... because SO much liability is put on "whoever is responsible" (as if the weather svc is responsible for the weather). I think the NWS is simply covering their bu**. Just like McDonalds who now has to put in large letters "COFFEE IS HOT" on their cups and their drive-thru windows, because someone sued them because the coffee was was hot. DUH.
The warnings will continue because the NWS doesnt want to be sued if someone is hurt or killed.
Common sense has long since died and if the NWS doesnt tell us to take cover when the trees are blowing over sideways, the lightning is striking everywhere around you, and ice pellets called hail are hitting you in the head, then someone will blame the NWS.
Its a "sue-happy" "its your fault, not mine" kinda world ----- unfortunatly.

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Posted by
on February 28, 2005, 9:15 am

Some people do not take severe weather threats or actual warnings seriously. Some people never have. Some people never will.

Raising the threshold for severe storms warnings is not going to change that. I think the real problem is not the warnings but a personal attitude. An attitude that it's not going to get bad "that" at their exact location, or a sort of predetermined fate (if it's my time to go) bravado attitude. If the severe criteria is raised, those same folks are going to continue as they always have: sitting on the couch or heading off for bed confident that the worst of the severe weather will not affect them personally. The only thing that will change that attitude is a close encounter, not changed warnings.

I prefer the heads-up the current warning system affords. Changing the criteria in an effort to get the attention of those that aren't going to pay attention anyway seems pointless and dangerous.

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Posted by robert
on February 28, 2005, 9:18 am

I think that people hear so many warnings and nothing happens that they do not pay any attention to the warnings. This could be a very dangerous situation in the event of an actual severe storm or tornado.

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Posted by Peter
on February 28, 2005, 9:25 am

I sometimes feel that the thunderstorm warnings get to the point of sounding like a cry of wolf in the summer. However, I don't think changing is a good idea.

The company I work for in Tuscaloosa has a weather radio at the receptionist/operator desk. I hear it go off for each warning. We have designated safe areas for the office and plant areas, we are a manufacturer with glass and extruded aluminum all over the place. The problem is that we are not allowed to take heed of these warnings. The thought is that we wouldn't get anything done if we stopped for every warning. Granted, someone should monitor the weather reports and see if it makes sense to head to shelter, but to completely ignore it seems irresponsible to me.

The days leading up to Ivan last fall are a good example. The weather men were saying how bad it would be in Tuscaloosa. The administration reluctantly closed the plant, but not the offices. I'm in the computer department so was expected to be here. I was literally putting my shoes on to head out the door when half of a 60 foot beech tree fell across the end of my driveway. I couldn't leave. Had I been a few minutes faster in getting ready that would have been on my head. I called in and still caught grief over not coming in.

The weather services and reporters can only do so much. We live in an area that is prone to severe weather, the warnings are necessary. As a previous poster mentioned regarding their German friends, these storms are to be looked at with serious concern every time. Getting used to them is no excuse for choosing to be cavalier; that is how people get killed.

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Posted by Pam www
on February 28, 2005, 9:49 am

I think that the very thunderstorm warnings issue is already in place when you got go upgrading the weather conditions b/c of spotters and radar sightings by calling out the warnings for Tornados. I think the system we have now is great. And if there is too many storm warning. I would blame it on changes in the weather pattern. Meaning Global warming. Not the people that doing the job in trying to keep up safe, the weather men and women. They try to direct up to the proper ways to stay safe from storm that might or might not be deadly. And allow us sometimes, by news report & video, a change to see what they go through to keep us safe. No, don't change what we got. It already a neat tool in keeping us safe. But this is only my view of it all.
Pam

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Posted by John S
on February 28, 2005, 10:27 am

I live in Argo, just over the St. Clair County line, and right next to one of the sirens. When a severe storm is running northeast through Trussville and triggers the sirens for St. Clair county, my family and I have just minutes to get to safety. Conversely, if the storm is riding well south of us into Leeds and Moody and is heading east, it never poses a threat to us, and we may not even get rain from it, yet the sirens still sound near me. I do wish there was a way to target where and when the sirens go off within the county so that there would be fewer "needless" warnings for us.

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Posted by
on February 28, 2005, 10:27 am

There are never too many warnings! Live in Tornado Alley and you will pay close attention. I live in western end of Jefferson Co., and believe we know storms.

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Posted by Pam www
on February 28, 2005, 10:47 am

John,
Where I live at in Madison county, near the border of Alabama and Tennessee. We do get a better warning system. The weather man on one channel does a radar that tell the street that a warning he always tell the people that watching if they living next door to that area or county to be prepare or go ahead to take cover. So we do keep an head up when warning does happen in Northern Alabama. Sometimes when he said something our sirens goes off. I do live about a mile from the fire department and their sirens are loud enough. It so loud that my dog does an extra siren by howling at the sound of weather siren. But, Do what I do compare the weather people. Which ones are the best to listen to. My favorite are the weather people in 33/40 & WHNT19. B/c they better at informing people.

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Posted by Pam www
on February 28, 2005, 10:52 am

Oh forgotten to mention that I don't get 33/40 on my television just on my E-mail. But they are still the best. But I do listen to WHNT19. Sorry about that.
Pam

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Posted by Alston
on February 28, 2005, 12:03 pm

I belive most people ignore wateches and warnings becuase they think "it only happnes in trailer parks" and rural areas. Most of the time, damage is so isolated, video may not even make the news, just a quick blurb that ____ location had some damage today and two houses roof's were blown off. It does seem very rare that damage occurs "in the city or suberbs" but I know it does.

Here in the south where we do in fact have a large number of severe weather events, it does become "normal" to heare and see warnings frequently in the spring and fall. It is very different from a Hurricane warning or advisory, becuase it affects such a wide area, people see video of a Hurricane's path and it is scary.

I am glad this is being discussed, it is a very interesting subject. Not sure of a clear-cut answer, becuase it really is a double edged sword, you can warn some people by calling them directly and they would still ignore it, others take every warning seriously and protect life and property when severe weather is near.

Thank you Bill and to the entire 33/40 weather team for doing EVERYTHING in your power to keep the Birmigham market aware. You do make a differnece AND save lifes.

Alston

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Posted by www
on February 28, 2005, 2:50 pm

As a veteran certified storm spotter and member of law enforcement I think just the OPOSITE is true. I have saw several situations that produced damage where no warning was issued. As I have stated here before the town where I live has been hit by three serious severe weather events that caused fairly widespread damage and there has yet to be a warning issued for any of them. The NWS always gives some token answer (and your own weatherman Brian Peters gave a VERY token explaination to the unwarned tornado that hit our town when he was with the NWS angering a lot of people here) as to why a severe weather event wasn't warned. I've said it before and I'll say it again, severe storms don't "unsevere" themselves at the county line and there needs to be a better system in place. I like the idea of the "Very Severe Storm" warning and it's my understanding that the NWS is considering a warning system for lightening producing storms, which is a good idea as these often produce more damage than the current Severe criteria storms do. Just my two cents.

I compeletly agree witht the statement above that people need to pay more attention to what the weatherman says and educate themselves more on what terminology means.

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Posted by John S
on February 28, 2005, 3:20 pm

Pam, I do exactly as you do, but with satellite TV and radio simulcast as our only source for 33/40, sometimes by the time the siren sounds we've either lost power, lost satellite signal, or otherwise. Now that I've got DSL and a wireless laptop setup, I'll just go to the basement and pull up the website! ;-)

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Posted by
on February 28, 2005, 4:48 pm

I am a fan of the warning system. I have been in Emergency Services for 11 years as a Firefighter/EMT and the last 4 as a Police Officer. Having worked both in the Birmingham Metro and in Vermont, and seeing the vast differences in weather events, a resident must familiarize themselves with the warnings in their areas, and make plans in advance.
When I first moved to Vermont for College, I heard an "Air Raid" siren go off on a bright, sunshiney day. I began to ask where the tornado shelter was, and received the oddest looks. It seems that up there the volunteer fire departments use the Air Raid sirens for calls to service!
So, I believe that the warning system is beneficial, but education is very important. I also think a Very Severe T-Storm or "T-Storm Emergency" would be appropriate. Wasn't there a "Tornado Emergency" launched a few years ago? It may have just been something James and the crew said on the air, but It certainly made me sit up and take notice.
On a parting note, around 3 or 4 one morning, when I was working the night shift, a very severe storm blew through. It was later classified as an F0 tornado, but I rode it out in a vehicle on the leeward side of a building. If it had been warned as a very severe storm or a tornado, we probably would have been called off the street. Where I work now, we are encouraged to come in off the street in severe weather, even if it has not been "Warned".

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Posted by Pam
on February 28, 2005, 4:48 pm

John,
I don't have DSL(lucky), but I do have a radio that simulcast Dan's Satterfield's coverage. But I wish they did 33/40's like that. Have an radio station here that would do simulcast of JB or the other weather people on 33/40. So then I can see what they say about the radar on there when bad weather approaches. Oh well, begging can't be chooser.

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I think the current criteria is satisfactory. 3/4" hail is more than capable of denting vehicles if it is falling fast enough. De-emphasizing this size hail by raising warning hail criteria could reduce the number of 3/4" hail reports collected. If a person were to experience damage as a result of this and their insurance company needed to double-check Storm Data to see if there was hail and none was reported because it was too small, then that's tough luck for someone's car.

I've heard many times of wind damage with sustained winds around 40 mph (tropical systems, etc), so I would hate to imagine raising the wind criteria from a value that already higher than that. I'm not saying I think it should be lowered by any stretch of the imagination. I just think that where it is now is fine.

If you think about it, tornadoes only affect a very small percentage of the area (if any) that is under a Tornado Warning. Should we stop issuing Tornado Warnings for rural areas because of this?

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Posted by
on February 28, 2005, 9:14 pm

First, I turn to the experienced 33/40 weather team in the event of severe weather.

I personally feel that the warning system is fine as it stands. I also believe they should continue with the polygon warning system, because every storm does not affect the entire part of the county every time.

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Posted by
on February 28, 2005, 9:43 pm

First of all, I see a lot of people posting on this topic about getting warnings from outdoor weather sirens. That's the thing, they are OUTDOOR sirens, intended for people to get warning if they are OUTDOORS. Your number one warning source should NOT be a weather siren. As everyone has heard James Spann, other TV meteorologists, and the NWS preach for years, your number one source for severe weather information should be a NOAA Weather Radio. These things are usually $35 and under at places like Radio Shack.

Secondly, I personally think that the definition for a severe thunderstorm, and hence criteria for a severe thunderstorm warning, needs to be modified. As JB said in his originial post on this topic, these guidelines were set for aviation needs, and pilots don't even use these products. I personally would like to see the severe hail criteria be raised to 1 inch and the severe wind criteria be bumped up to 65 mph.....this is where we often start to see tree and powerline damage. Hail less of 3/4 an inch or less in diameter will fairly rarely cause damage to automobiles unless they are in swift motion going down the highway....and if you drive into a hailstorm, it is usually the driver's fault for not paying attention to warnings or thinking that they can outrun the storm....(there are other circumstances that aren't the same case.....)

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