Clouds and Off-and-On Rain

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An overrunning pattern continued this morning across much of the Southeast US with a good northeast surface flow with moisture riding up and over the cool air. Much of the rain was occurring this morning across the northern third of Alabama but a number of rainy periods are expected today and tonight and into early Monday.

It's interesting to note that the dewpoint temperatures were in the upper 20s to lower 30s, so the atmosphere is going to have to get cracking to recover enough for severe weather Monday. No sign on the morning surface chart of the warm front that we expect to move northward tomorrow. But as we all know from experience, the atmosphere can do some rapid changing. I'm still not sure that the slight risk area from SPC is correct - it may be a little too far north. Severe weather does seem possible from south of the Birmingham area to the coast on Monday afternoon and evening. But the northward extent of severe weather will depend heavily on how much the surface dewpoints can recover. Model numbers are still marginal in the Birmingham area with lifted index of -2 or so and CAPEs around 750. So this is one to be watching to see how much sunshine we can get and how much dewpoint recovery we get on Monday. In the mean time, some periods of rain with some possible heavy rain overnight.

The surface low sweeps by on Tuesday but skies are likely to remain mostly cloudy with some linger rain in the wraparound pattern behind the low.

Northwesterly flow aloft with a couple of disturbances at mid week and the end of the week will keep us fairly cool with temperatures below normal. GFS was forecasting the 540 thickness liine to reach the Alabama-Florida line by Friday.

Off to church and ushering duties this morning. Hope you have a good Sunday. Be weather conscious on Monday with the possibility of severe weather.

-Brian-