An Important Tornado Forecast

On this date in 1948, an F3 tornado tracked through Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma City just before 10 p.m. destroying 52 aircraft. More than 10 million dollars damage was done making this the costliest tornado on record up to the time in Oklahoma. Major Ernest W. Fawbush and Captain Robert C Miller were on duty when the tornado hit. An investigation from Washington revealed that the tornado was not forecast able given the state of the art in meteorology. Fawbush and Miller were ordered to see if a operationally forecasting tornadoes was possible. They began studying weather charts for the day of the tornado and for other tornado incidents. . On March 25th, Fawbush and Miller recognized that conditions were identical to those of the 20th and issued a forecast for heavy storms. As they watched a squall line approach the base, they issued the first tornado forecast. The odds of another tornado striking the base were about 1 in 20 million. Miller actually drive home as the line passed, thinking their forecast was a failure. When he heard radio reports of a tornado on the base, he thought they were referring to the tornado of the 20th. But Fawbush jubilantly informed his that their forecast had been a success. A tornado had developed over the base. Because of their forecast, preparations on the base had minimized damage and no injuries had occurred. Their forecast was a big, albeit somewhat lucky success. Fawbush and Miller would issue many successful tornado forecasts over the next five years, building the foundation for our warning process.