The Tuesday morning web update is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
March arrives with an icy wind and temperatures almost 20 degrees below normal. A widespread freeze is likely tomorrow morning, with most places going into the 22 to 27 degree range. The coldest valleys might even see upper teens.
LAST NIGHT: Lots of reports of snow flurries over north Alabama in the 11:00 p.m. to 3:00 a.m. time frame... see the comments under J.B.'s post below this one. Most folks slept through it, however.
THURSDAY STORM: I have to wonder if we poo-pooed the Thursday storm too quickly. The 06Z run of the GFS is pretty wet, spitting out a 71 percent POP (probability of precipitation) for Birmingham at 6:00 Thursday morning. The critical thickness values are pretty low; the 1000-500 mb thickness sits at 5400 meters at Birmingham, and the freeze line at 850 mb runs from about Columbus, Mississippi to Clanton to Auburn. And, wet bulb temperatures are forecast to be below freezing, which means evaporative cooling might come into play. Still, the heaviest precipitation should be south of here, but lets watch the 12Z models runs and see what happens. If the 06Z GFS trend does continue, we might have to carry over a chance of light snow into Thursday morning.
By the way, the NAM is very dry Thursday morning, in direct contrast to the GFS.
WEEKEND: The strong clipper system could bring some snow to parts of Tennessee and Kentucky on Saturday, but that should stay north of us. I rarely get excited about clipper systems due to the lack of moisture, and the fact they usually stay north of us.
NEXT WEEK: I think you throw out the 60s and 40s advertised by the GFS next week. We should be in the cool 50s and 30s, and maybe even colder than that. The mean eastern U.S. trough is going nowhere. And, the 06Z GFS hints at one or two waves with a decent amount of moisture along the way. Temperatures should remain well below normal through next week.
MID-MONTH: As the NAO goes to neutral territory, we get into a warmer pattern over the latter half of March, and probably a stormy pattern as well, which is what we expect around here this time of the year.
STORM ALERT 2005: Don't forget out last show is tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. at Mountaintop Community Church. I know lots of folks go to church on Wednesday night around here, but keep in mind this show will take the place of the Wednesday night worship at Mountaintop, and I know pastor Bill Elder will want to share a few words after the show is over for those that want to stick around. The facility is beautiful and very comfortable. For directions, go here:
http://www.mountaintopchurch.com/directions/index.htm
Will try to post some notes this morning as the 12Z model runs arrive... I will be in town today (for once
.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
March arrives with an icy wind and temperatures almost 20 degrees below normal. A widespread freeze is likely tomorrow morning, with most places going into the 22 to 27 degree range. The coldest valleys might even see upper teens.
LAST NIGHT: Lots of reports of snow flurries over north Alabama in the 11:00 p.m. to 3:00 a.m. time frame... see the comments under J.B.'s post below this one. Most folks slept through it, however.
THURSDAY STORM: I have to wonder if we poo-pooed the Thursday storm too quickly. The 06Z run of the GFS is pretty wet, spitting out a 71 percent POP (probability of precipitation) for Birmingham at 6:00 Thursday morning. The critical thickness values are pretty low; the 1000-500 mb thickness sits at 5400 meters at Birmingham, and the freeze line at 850 mb runs from about Columbus, Mississippi to Clanton to Auburn. And, wet bulb temperatures are forecast to be below freezing, which means evaporative cooling might come into play. Still, the heaviest precipitation should be south of here, but lets watch the 12Z models runs and see what happens. If the 06Z GFS trend does continue, we might have to carry over a chance of light snow into Thursday morning.
By the way, the NAM is very dry Thursday morning, in direct contrast to the GFS.
WEEKEND: The strong clipper system could bring some snow to parts of Tennessee and Kentucky on Saturday, but that should stay north of us. I rarely get excited about clipper systems due to the lack of moisture, and the fact they usually stay north of us.
NEXT WEEK: I think you throw out the 60s and 40s advertised by the GFS next week. We should be in the cool 50s and 30s, and maybe even colder than that. The mean eastern U.S. trough is going nowhere. And, the 06Z GFS hints at one or two waves with a decent amount of moisture along the way. Temperatures should remain well below normal through next week.
MID-MONTH: As the NAO goes to neutral territory, we get into a warmer pattern over the latter half of March, and probably a stormy pattern as well, which is what we expect around here this time of the year.
STORM ALERT 2005: Don't forget out last show is tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. at Mountaintop Community Church. I know lots of folks go to church on Wednesday night around here, but keep in mind this show will take the place of the Wednesday night worship at Mountaintop, and I know pastor Bill Elder will want to share a few words after the show is over for those that want to stick around. The facility is beautiful and very comfortable. For directions, go here:
http://www.mountaintopchurch.com/directions/index.htm
Will try to post some notes this morning as the 12Z model runs arrive... I will be in town today (for once
.
on March 1, 2005, 7:10 am
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