More information from the 2006 Bahamas Weather Conference:
Hugh Willougby of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division spoke on the current hurricane cycle we are in now. We have endured two years of above normal landfalls from hurricanes here in the United States. He likens it to Las Vegas. For years the dice were cold. Now they are hot. Unfortunately, the dice may stay hot for awhile.
Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University spoke on the topic of global warming. He believes that the recent trend of rising global temperatures is mostly natural. He thinks that we are vain to believe that we can alter the whole climate system of the Earth. He also does not believe that our recent increased hurricane frequency has anything to do with global climate change. He bases this belief on the fact that although numbers in the Atlantic are up since 1995, the numbers worldwide are flat.
Gray went on to say that we have had a couple of bad years the last two years. But he thinks we should keep it in perspective. The number of hurricanes in the North Atlantic has been way up since 1995. However, we have been lucky, with a minimum number of landfalling U.S. storms. That changed in 2004. Our luck ran out. That luck is called the steering currents. For the past two years, the Bermuda High was stronger, steering hurricanes toward the United States. Last year was the all time record setting year, but there probably were actually more in 1933, when 21 were officially recorded.
Gray shared his 2006 predictions. They look active once again. Six predictors are used in their methodology and all six are high this year, strongly backing up their forecast. Gray and his team expect 17 named storms this season, with nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes. These December numbers have proven to be about 75% accurate. They will issue another update in early April, another May 31, one in early August and then issue them monthly to the end of the season.
You can subscribe to podcasts of the event at http://www.bahamaswxconference.com.
-Bill
Hugh Willougby of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division spoke on the current hurricane cycle we are in now. We have endured two years of above normal landfalls from hurricanes here in the United States. He likens it to Las Vegas. For years the dice were cold. Now they are hot. Unfortunately, the dice may stay hot for awhile.
Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University spoke on the topic of global warming. He believes that the recent trend of rising global temperatures is mostly natural. He thinks that we are vain to believe that we can alter the whole climate system of the Earth. He also does not believe that our recent increased hurricane frequency has anything to do with global climate change. He bases this belief on the fact that although numbers in the Atlantic are up since 1995, the numbers worldwide are flat.
Gray went on to say that we have had a couple of bad years the last two years. But he thinks we should keep it in perspective. The number of hurricanes in the North Atlantic has been way up since 1995. However, we have been lucky, with a minimum number of landfalling U.S. storms. That changed in 2004. Our luck ran out. That luck is called the steering currents. For the past two years, the Bermuda High was stronger, steering hurricanes toward the United States. Last year was the all time record setting year, but there probably were actually more in 1933, when 21 were officially recorded.
Gray shared his 2006 predictions. They look active once again. Six predictors are used in their methodology and all six are high this year, strongly backing up their forecast. Gray and his team expect 17 named storms this season, with nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes. These December numbers have proven to be about 75% accurate. They will issue another update in early April, another May 31, one in early August and then issue them monthly to the end of the season.
You can subscribe to podcasts of the event at http://www.bahamaswxconference.com.
-Bill
on March 26, 2006, 9:46 am
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