To Phase, Or Not To Phase?

The Thursday morning web video update is online now:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Thanks to everyone who came out to our Storm Alert 2005 tour during the last five weeks... we saw over 3,000 people along the way and had a blast as usual. We are already thinking about Storm Alert 2006!

The Southeast Severe Storm Symposium begins tomorrow at Mississippi State; we would love to see you there. If you want to learn more about weather, it is a wonderful opportunity. I will be speaking tomorrow, Bill Murray is up on Saturday. Read more here:

http://www.msstate.edu/org/nwa/symposium.htm

What a good looking storm this morning in the Gulf of Mexico. But, the big rain mass will stay over south Alabama while we mostly stay dry up here. Quite frankly, there is a good chance we stay dry through Sunday. The clipper system Saturday has very little moisture to work with, so other than a few sprinkles over north Alabama we really don't exepct any rain. Temperatures will continue to moderate, with 60s tomorrow and into the weekend. Finally back to normal levels for March. For the time being.

NEXT WEEK

The models are all bamboozled over the system early next week. After showing a major, phased storm yesterday, now the models are trending toward a non-phased look, with the northern branch and southern branch systems keeping away from each other.

If the non-phased look is correct, we will have a band of showers Monday night, and cooler weather on Tuesday. If the phased solution is the right one, we will have heavy rain and strong storms late Monday into Tuesday morning, and a major blast of cold air at the middle of next week.

Quite frankly I really am not leaning strongly either way at this point... we will just have to say the confidence in forecast details beyond five days is low, and we will watch the new runs arrive today.

The afternoon video will be on time today, but the schedule will be a bit disrupted tomorrow due to the Mississippi State conference. I am going to see if Brian Peters can knock out a video update tomorrow, but I will be making posts to the blog from the conference. In fact, I will try to post a running commentary on the vast knowledge offered by the speakers. Never covered a weather conference as a blogger before....