Awesome April Weather

The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Another cool night is ahead, followed by a sunny day tomorrow with a mild afternoon. We will be in the low 40s early tomorrow (upper 30s for the colder valleys), and in the low 70s tomorrow afternoon. A few clouds should show up on Thursday, but I still expect lots of sunshine.

While we enjoy great weather, another potent severe weather setup is shaping up for the area from northeast Texas to parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana on Thursday. This includes states like Missouri and Arkansas. I expect part of this area to be under a moderate risk on Thursday with a strong negative tilt upper trough moving into the region.

The 12Z run of the GFS continues to trend of bringing the upper air dynamics on a more southward track this time, which will increase our risk of strong to severe storms by Friday afternoon and Friday night. The model output has a stacked low near Kansas City Friday, which splits into two pieces. The southern piece winds up near Nashville on Saturday morning. At the moment it looks like the favored time to strong to severe storms across Alabama will be from about 4:00 p.m. Friday through 4:00 a.m. Saturday.

Once the system gets it act together on the east side of the Rockies we will know much more about the potential threat.

THE WEEKEND: Still looks like we clear during the day Saturday, with sunshine possible by Saturday afternoon. For now, we will maintain a sunny forecast for Sunday, but the GFS is hinting at a wedge type pattern with an easterly flow developing. This could mean clouds and cooler temperatures than we have forecast. Lets look at the 00Z GFS and we can adjust the forecast as needed.

LONG RANGE: Still looks like the main storm track runs from the southern plains into the upper midwest for the next couple of weeks, but we might be close enough to have one or two thunderstorms events here in the April 10-20 time frame.

Sure enjoyed speaking to the 2nd and 3rd graders at Westwood Elementary in Coker today... look for them on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News today at 5:00! I will also write about the trip and have it posted tonight by 10:00 or so.

I will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...
Posted by Austin  
on April 4, 2006, 2:46 pm
James, I always look forward to watching the KIDCAM video. I laugh everytime you say "there were a lot of dave baird/pam huff/brend ladun fans" :)

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Posted by Josh  
on April 4, 2006, 4:44 pm
I think looking at the current weather models I'm pretty sure most of Alabama will be in a slight risk outlook and the western or NW Alabama MIGHT be in a Moderate risk area especialy for Mississippi that will probably have some explosive thunderstorm development Friday afternoon. It will move east during the evening Friday into west and north Alabama and they could be strong to severe. All in all best chance around our area looks like over Mississippi, and parts of Alabama (mostly over the western half), and the western half of TN.

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Posted by   www
on April 4, 2006, 6:50 pm
The 18z model guidance suggests a very dangerous atmospheric enviroment across north central Alabama from Friday midday into Friday night......appears to be increasingly ominous for the Heart of Dixie (and my neck of the woods/ NW Georgia as well).

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