Severe Weather Issues Ahead

The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Wow.... check out Bill Murray's post below this one. Some amazing historical text from the Superoutbreak of April 3-4, 1974. I was a senior in high school that night and was sent north (from my home in Tuscaloosa) to work emergency communications. My first assignment was at the old People's Hospital in downtown Jasper. It was a night I will never forget. The WeatherBrains podcast is all about that this week; you can listen via iTunes, or here: http://www.weatherbrains.com/

NICE DAY: Another beautiful day for Alabama today with ample sunshine and highs in the low to mid 70s. Tomorrow will be dry and mild, but we will be watching developments to the west...

ANOTHER RED LETTER DAY? SPC has defined a moderate risk of severe storms tomorrow from roughly Paris, Texas to Little Rock, AR to Kansas City, MO to Omaha, NE. In fact, SPC mentions they might upgrade part of this region to a high risk in later outlooks. This was the same area hit hard this past weekend. Conditions seem to be coming together for another major severe weather outbreak.

PROBLEMS HERE FRIDAY NIGHT? Most of Alabama is under a slight risk of severe weather in the Day 3 outlook, and conditions do now seem to favor strong to severe storms here Friday night. The latest model data suggests much of the day Friday will be dry, with the greatest chance of storms between 6:00 p.m. Friday through 6:00 a.m. Saturday. Here are some severe weather parameters for the 6:00 to midnight time frame:

Surface based CAPE: 1555
Lifted index: -4.6
0 to 3 km helicity: 257
SWEAT index: 455
Total totals: 53
850 mb wind speed: 50 knots

Model output suggests the greatest risk here could be from damaging winds and large hail, but a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. After all, this is April in Alabama, you know.

Looks like we will be burning the midnight oil in the weather office Friday night.

THE WEEKEND: Showers and storms should end early in the day Saturday, with clearing Saturday afternoon. The weather will be cooler; after reaching 80 on Friday, temperatures will probably hold in the 60s all day Saturday. Sunday should be mostly sunny with a cool morning.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS shows yet another negative tilt through over the plains on Tuesday, but this time it moves it more northward, missing us completely. In fact, most of next week here looks dry at this point.

I will be doing a weather program today at Avondale Elementary School here in Birmingham; I will have the next map discussion video posted by 3:30 this afternoon!
Posted by   www
on April 5, 2006, 6:08 am
Morning low 39.7 in Vinemont. Will this be our last time in the 30's until fall?

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Posted by   www
on April 5, 2006, 6:40 am
I doubt it Mike. I had a low of 32.5° at 0643 this morning with moderate frost. Just last year I had a last freeze on April 25th with a low of 30° and heavy frost. In 2002 I had four straight frosts ending on May 22nd. Winter can't be counted out this early.

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Posted by  
on April 5, 2006, 8:31 am
I agree with you Vic just a couble of months ago I said we might have a frost in April and what happend you had a light frost. So I agree don't count winter out just yet.

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Posted by   www
on April 5, 2006, 8:57 am
I say it is over. Spring is here!!

My lawn guy is coming over and I am about to go and make something of the mess in what is now my dead weed garden.......




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Posted by  
on April 5, 2006, 10:50 am
I am with you Stephanie. My sister and I are betting on James Spann. He said danger of frost for our area is over until the Fall. I planted tomato plants last week. Good luck with your garden. Have you tried planting rye grass in the Fall to have green grass all winter? We love it. I am ready to plant sunflower seeds this weekend if severe weather does not intefere.

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Posted by  
on April 5, 2006, 10:51 am
If you say so Stephanie but I would wait untill good Friday.

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Posted by   www
on April 5, 2006, 11:04 am
Michael, did you send me a text a little while ago???

I got a bad case of the wannaplantsomeprettyflowers.

I think they will be hunky dory. :D

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Posted by   www
on April 5, 2006, 11:08 am
I haven't tried that Kim, we have zoysia (i think that is how it is spelled) and it is trying to green out now. My flower garden got out of control last summer, when the baby became seriously ill.

Now that we know what makes him sick, and have that under control, I can't wait to get out there to plant some pretty things :)

When your sunflowers sprout - send pics! I love em!



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Posted by   www
on April 5, 2006, 12:34 pm
Vic, You are probably right. It won't be too hard for at least some parts of Alabama to touch the 30's againthis season, especially your location. Maybe after one of these cold fronts pass through.

I DO believe that most of us have seen our last frost. Good riddance!



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Posted by  
on April 5, 2006, 1:03 pm
Hey Stephanie I think I did sorry about that I ment to send it to someone else. Now as far as the frost I recall a late frost on April 25 so We COULD have a late frost. I hope we don't but you can never tell.

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