Just in from Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University...
Information obtained through March 2006 continues to indicate that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2006 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0).
The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2006 to be about 195 percent of the long-term average. This early April forecast is based on a newly devised extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 52 years of past global reanalysis data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We have maintained our forecast from our early December prediction as the Atlantic Ocean, although cooling slightly with respect to climatology, remains anomalously warm and central and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures anomalies have continued to cool. Currently, weak La Niņa conditions are observed. We expect either neutral or weak La Niņa conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season.
See his full outlook here:
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2006/april2006/
Dr. Gray makes it clear "global warming" has nothing to do with the increased hurricane activity. I am sure the national media will not report anything like this. Too bad; Dr. Gray's work is simply brilliant.
Information obtained through March 2006 continues to indicate that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2006 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0).
The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2006 to be about 195 percent of the long-term average. This early April forecast is based on a newly devised extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 52 years of past global reanalysis data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We have maintained our forecast from our early December prediction as the Atlantic Ocean, although cooling slightly with respect to climatology, remains anomalously warm and central and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures anomalies have continued to cool. Currently, weak La Niņa conditions are observed. We expect either neutral or weak La Niņa conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season.
See his full outlook here:
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2006/april2006/
Dr. Gray makes it clear "global warming" has nothing to do with the increased hurricane activity. I am sure the national media will not report anything like this. Too bad; Dr. Gray's work is simply brilliant.
on April 5, 2006, 8:49 am
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on April 5, 2006, 9:29 am
All of us in the weather group use Mozilla Firefox (or is it Foxfire
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on April 5, 2006, 9:48 am
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on April 5, 2006, 10:26 am
I see your point, but I would side with the EMA and school officials. Those tests are very competitive and the startling sound of the sirens could derail their train of thought unless they were advised before starting to ignore the sirens.
They will probably run the siren test tomorrow. They often delay it a day when even moderate thunderstorms are in the area.
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on April 5, 2006, 11:21 am
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