North Alabama Under a Rare High Risk of Severe Weather Friday

April 6, 2006, 11:28 am

Posted by J.B. Elliott in Severe Weather
Rating: 5/5 Votes : 6

Early this afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center placed a large part of North and Central Alabama under a High Risk area for tomorrow. The high risk extends roughly along a line from Demopolis to Calera and Anniston northward which includes Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden, Ft. Payne, Huntsville, Decatur, Florence, Jasper, Hamilton, Cullman, Russellville--just to name some.

A Moderate Risk area extends further south to south of Montgomery and a Slight Risk area for the rest of the state.

This is something we will watch extremely closely.

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Posted by
on April 6, 2006, 11:30 am

What is the definition of a High Risk area? What can we expect under these conditions? Thanks!

-Julie

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Posted by Josh
on April 6, 2006, 11:30 am

WOW!!! I havent seen a high risk over me in YEARS!!

http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

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Posted by Josh
on April 6, 2006, 11:36 am

WIDE spread damage is very likely and including some tornados too. Everybody need to stay calm and get there safty plan ready now.

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Posted by Josh
on April 6, 2006, 11:47 am

And I'm right in the bullseye of the high risk somthing I won't forget.

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Posted by
on April 6, 2006, 11:48 am

The last time I was under a high risk was November 2001. I was only a few miles from the path of the Carbon Hill tornado when it went through fayette county. I am very neverous about this one for some reason.

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Posted by Brent
on April 6, 2006, 11:49 am

Official defintion of a high risk from the SPC:

The HIGH risk area almost always means a major severe weather outbreak is expected, with great coverage of severe weather and enhanced likelihood of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or extreme convective wind events over a large area). Within a high risk area, expect at least 20 tornadoes with at least 2 of them rated F3+, or an extreme derecho causing 50+ widespread wind events (50+) with numerous higher end wind (80+ mph) and structural damage reports.

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Posted by
on April 6, 2006, 11:52 am

I'm sorry I meant November 2002. I got my dates mixed up.

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Posted by
on April 6, 2006, 11:52 am

Yea. I am a severe weather love. I am pumped for this. ISnt the suppose to be a night time event?

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Posted by Kim
on April 6, 2006, 11:54 am

I thought I read somewhere that High Risk are rarely issued and if they are it's like a state of emergency thingy?

Was just in eating joint and they tested the national broad cast thing twice while we were in there, are they getting prepared for tommorrow????

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Posted by
on April 6, 2006, 12:00 pm

Just before everyone freaks out (not that I think you would), keep in mind that even these High risk areas can be major busts where very little happens. Also, I'm sure they'll change the area by this time tomorrow.

On the other hand, if it verifies: God help us.

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Posted by Mikey
on April 6, 2006, 12:20 pm

Yes, Andy...thanks for pointing this out before everyone freaks out. The maps tomorrow COULD look very different, as they did today from yesterday.

Reply to this comment

Posted by KIM
on April 6, 2006, 12:03 pm

WELL IT'S BEEN A BUST SO FAR TODAY OUT WEST HASNT IT, LOOKED AT STORM REPORTS AND NOTHING BUT HAIL.

Reply to this comment

Posted by jamie
on April 6, 2006, 12:07 pm

no its not a bust, they are expecxting Tornadoes late this afternoon and tonight in midwest. Tornado watches are now out for that area...

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Posted by
on April 6, 2006, 12:05 pm

I am a school teacher in Jefferson County. What time are the storms expected to hit? Should we practice our weather drills today?

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Posted by www
on April 6, 2006, 12:08 pm

Y'all
Just be calm, and make sure you pay extra attention tommorrow. If you haven't signed up for E-Warn on your cell phone (especially if you are like me and will be out and about), do so now. It is free from 33/40, but you may have to pay 10 cents or so from your wireless provider.
Have a plan in action if you live (or work in) a mobile home.

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Posted by Josh
on April 6, 2006, 12:10 pm

If yall want to see a official, zoomed in county map of the risk area click below on the link:

http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0RQDdAnUUvsUJGqKtNCXiJoVeR5uyJvTrjN
3EF!OJ3CpWePirnWpm43Le1cm9kS4aDEFiPRp5NrMVvXyowXdYOwzueyN3O79AGLR
kVvvGz8c/high%20risk.PNG

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Posted by www
on April 6, 2006, 1:17 pm

thanks josh! I love your maps! BTW... when is talkweather going to be back up and running??

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Posted by
on April 6, 2006, 3:54 pm

Josh, where did you find a map with this much detail? I went to the SPC site and only found a map showing coverage over states.

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Posted by
on April 6, 2006, 12:10 pm

My .02 cents. This is not going to be a bust for some people in Alabama. This is potentially a very serious situation. Its been quite a few yaers the we have seem the potential like this in the spring.

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Posted by KIM
on April 6, 2006, 12:16 pm

I'M CALM-----------FOR RIGHT NOW LOL

I LOVE THESE MAPS YALL POST. I WOULDNT KNOW HOW TO EVEN GET TO THEM.

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Posted by www
on April 6, 2006, 12:21 pm

This is unfolding just like Sunday--the area of high risk for today is too far west. The first watch box is for Missouri. If it goes as fast as it did Sunday, it won't be tomorrow night--it'll be tomorrow morning.

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Posted by Rusty Pitts
on April 6, 2006, 12:21 pm

J.B... I was just wondering , being though you are a man of #,s .... Looking at the Helicity and Cape values for tomorrow.... and the predictions.... The question is ..... April 8th is a day that central Alabama will never forget.... I was talking with Matthew Seals just a little bit ago and we were wondering what the values were at the time of the outbreak that destroyed Oak Grove??

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Posted by Rusty Pitts
on April 6, 2006, 12:21 pm

Posted by KI M
on April 6, 2006, 12:33 pm

Not to sound dumb here, but is April the 8th the same day as the oak grove f5?

if it is ok i might not be too calm anymore cause thats just to earie.

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Posted by Rusty Pitts
on April 6, 2006, 12:40 pm

Yes April 8th 1998....

http://www.survivalring.org/twister98.htm

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Posted by
on April 6, 2006, 12:45 pm

Well JB & James and rest of weather team----looks like it's going to be a busy one tomorrow. I haven't seen high risk like this in a while.

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Posted by Derek
on April 6, 2006, 12:54 pm

Considering that this is the Day 2 outlook we're talking about instead of the Day 1 outlook, that makes it even scarier. It is rare to see a high risk in a Day 2 outook.

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Posted by
on April 6, 2006, 12:55 pm

A NOTE OF CAUTION...
This is not a time for anyone to panic. Instead, it is a time to plan ahead and be calm. We have a High Risk at other times, including the April 8, 1998 Oak Grove tornado. However, there is always a chance that conditions could change some by tomorrow.

We will be able to much better define the event tomorrow morning. Just plan ahead for Friday to be where you can receive the warnings and can quickly get in a safe place. Most of the dangerous weather will be mid-afternoon well into Friday night. Could even be late afternoon for the onset here.

It does appear to be a very serious threat but join me in hoping and praying that it will not be that serious.

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Posted by Lori
on April 6, 2006, 12:50 pm

Emily, I hope y'all have been having drills since the spring severe weather season started! I don't think it would hurt to have a drill today, in fact I would encourage you to....

Reply to this comment

Posted by KIM
on April 6, 2006, 12:53 pm

We gonna drill at my house tonight.

My husband thinks im crazy i just want ya'll to know but i make my kids

go to bed with clothes on
shoes by the door
keys handy
weather radiio out

cause we live in moble home gotta get to shelter.

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Posted by www
on April 6, 2006, 1:15 pm

Kim, I did the same thing when I lived in a MB.
There is a fine line between being overprotective, and safe.
You gotta take care of those kids. I don't blame you one little bit for having the drill.

Reply to this comment

Posted by jj
on April 6, 2006, 12:55 pm

I don't think the high risk weather scenario will play out. I think or at least I hope that it will be downgraded to moderate risk or possibly slight risk by tomorrow morning.

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Posted by Bridget
on April 6, 2006, 1:01 pm

Thanks Josh for adding that county map.

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Posted by
on April 6, 2006, 1:03 pm

JB, I was just walking down the hall near the Jefferson County EMA office and I overheard they will have a Severe Weather Briefing at 1400hrs. Is the 33/40 weather team involved in this and if so, will you post something here shortly thereafter?

Reply to this comment

Posted by
on April 6, 2006, 2:25 pm

Dave...
Dont know...but Jason and I in an excellent conference with NWS/Huntsville.

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Posted by Kim
on April 6, 2006, 1:06 pm

Rusty that was a great article thanks for posting it.

Reply to this comment

Posted by Josh
on April 6, 2006, 1:19 pm

Wow the winds are really blowing at my house now, a constant infow of 15-30mph from the south from the low convergance up in the mid west.

Reply to this comment

Posted by
on April 6, 2006, 2:59 pm

Pete has graciously volunteered to ride atop the 33/40 Stormchaser van tomorrow evening and provide us on the spot report

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Posted by kim
on April 6, 2006, 1:43 pm

pete thats not even funny buddy

Reply to this comment

Posted by
on April 6, 2006, 1:53 pm

This type of weather brings out the crackpots....just someone with nothing to do, and probably sneaking time on their parents' computer. Will be watching the weather from south Mississippi. Stay safe everyone, and say a prayer for us here in the Biloxi area. We are still rebuilding.

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Posted by Josh
on April 6, 2006, 2:22 pm

1. STAY ALERT BUT DON"T PANIC(It can cause alot of problems).
2. HAVE A SAFTY PLAN IN PLACE.
3. HAVE A WAY TO GET WARNINGS WHEN ASLEEP ALSO LIKE A WEATHER RADIO.
4. TELL OTHERS TO KEEP A WATCH ON THE WEATHER FOR TOMMOROW ESPECIALY AFTER 12 NOON AND ON THROUGH THE NIGHT.

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Posted by Bridget
on April 6, 2006, 2:55 pm

If you like the weather posts JB, James, Jason, or anyone else posts will you please rate them? They put in alot of hours to keep us informed and I think we at least owe them that. Thank you!

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Posted by Brian
on April 6, 2006, 3:06 pm

Pete and Barometer,
Congratulations! You are both co-winners for today's Crackpot Awards. Any other contestants? If so, kindly keep your moronic comments to yourselves. No one should panic, but this is also not a time for joking around. Everyone be safe!

Reply to this comment

Posted by Barometer www
on April 6, 2006, 3:59 pm

Found one!

Reply to this comment

Posted by Dawn
on April 6, 2006, 3:47 pm

I can't help but panic. this sounds really serious. I hope and pray we dont have another outbreak like april 8. We dont have a basement or a storm shelter plus i live on a hill. I hope these storms arent as strong and severe as expected but i am gonna prepare for the worst. Better safe than sorry.

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Posted by www
on April 6, 2006, 4:13 pm

Are you in more/less danger if you live on a hill??

I have never thought of that, I live on a hill too.

Would love some insight on that please. Thanks

Reply to this comment

Posted by Alan
on April 6, 2006, 4:28 pm

Hills usually have no bearing on a Tornado. It's an old myth that Tornadoes don't go up hills.

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Posted by www
on April 6, 2006, 7:01 pm

thanks alan! i think i have heard that old myth before

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