The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Prior to major events we always have thousands of new readers. Welcome... I suggest watching the video if you have time; it will help you to understand what I write here. The map discussion videos are done twice daily.
SPC has placed the northern third of Alabama under a high risk of severe weather for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. A moderate risk extends below that, deep into South Alabama. Here is some additional information on the "high risk" from the Storm Prediction Center:
"A HIGH risk area almost always means a major severe weather outbreak is expected, with great coverage of severe weather and enhanced likelihood of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or extreme convective wind events over a large area). Within a high risk area, expect at least 20 tornadoes with at least 2 of them rated F3+, or an extreme derecho causing 50+ widespread wind events (50+) with numerous higher end wind (80+ mph) and structural damage reports."
Nobody needs to be upset or anxious about this; if you have a way of hearing warnings and a good place to go, you will be fine even if we do have a significant outbreak. And, remember, this is just an outlook, and outlooks can be wrong.
TONIGHT: There is a high risk of severe weather for the rest of the afternoon and tonight across parts of eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. A moderate risk surrounds that, and covers much of the nation's mid-section. As of 3:00 p.m. there are no active tornado warnings in that area, but storms are increasing, and some of them should go into rotation soon. It will be a long night for our friends in the heartland, and we will be watching with interest.
TOMORROW: Storms from tonight's activity should weaken toward daybreak, and could lay down a few mesoscale outflow boundaries across the Deep South tomorrow. These small scale boundaries will play a big role in how the severe weather event unfolds tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.
I still think most of the severe weather problems in Alabama will come in the 6:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m. time frame (tomorrow night into the pre-dawn hours Saturday), but a few isolated afternoon storms cannot be ruled out, and those could become severe. Go, as a broad-brush statement, the general risk time here will be from 3:00 p.m. through 3:00 a.m.
The surface low won't be all that deep, winds are fairly unidirectional, and the upper trough is positive tilt, but most other severe weather parameters will be in place. Excellent instability, very good speed shear, strong winds aloft and near the surface.
CALL TO ACTION: Be sure you have a way of hearing tornado warnings tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Forget tornado sirens... you need a NOAA Weather Radio in your home. If you are away from home, have E-Warn on your cell phone. Everybody in the home, including the children, need to know the safe place. And, if you live in a mobile home, you must have a safe place to go, even in the middle of the night.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION:
*You can sign up for E-Warn here:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/ewarnmain.hrb
*If we go into long form coverage, you can watch us on the web if television is not available to you. Just go to our main page and click on the "streaming video" button on the right (near the top):
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/
When we are not in long form coverage, you watch watch our live Pinpoint Doppler radar. The stream is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Commercial free! You need the Real Player installed to watch. And, you can move your mouse over the video and you have the option of putting the video into the Real Player, which enables you to size it any way you want, or make it full screen.
THE WEEKEND: Saturday will be mostly cloudy and cooler with some lingering light rain possible during the morning. Sunshine returns in full force on Sunday.
Have to run to a meeting down the hall; stay tuned to the blog for the latest updates. Due to the extremely high volume of e-mail, I won't be able to give personal briefings... you can read our thinking right here!
The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow....
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Prior to major events we always have thousands of new readers. Welcome... I suggest watching the video if you have time; it will help you to understand what I write here. The map discussion videos are done twice daily.
SPC has placed the northern third of Alabama under a high risk of severe weather for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. A moderate risk extends below that, deep into South Alabama. Here is some additional information on the "high risk" from the Storm Prediction Center:
"A HIGH risk area almost always means a major severe weather outbreak is expected, with great coverage of severe weather and enhanced likelihood of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or extreme convective wind events over a large area). Within a high risk area, expect at least 20 tornadoes with at least 2 of them rated F3+, or an extreme derecho causing 50+ widespread wind events (50+) with numerous higher end wind (80+ mph) and structural damage reports."
Nobody needs to be upset or anxious about this; if you have a way of hearing warnings and a good place to go, you will be fine even if we do have a significant outbreak. And, remember, this is just an outlook, and outlooks can be wrong.
TONIGHT: There is a high risk of severe weather for the rest of the afternoon and tonight across parts of eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. A moderate risk surrounds that, and covers much of the nation's mid-section. As of 3:00 p.m. there are no active tornado warnings in that area, but storms are increasing, and some of them should go into rotation soon. It will be a long night for our friends in the heartland, and we will be watching with interest.
TOMORROW: Storms from tonight's activity should weaken toward daybreak, and could lay down a few mesoscale outflow boundaries across the Deep South tomorrow. These small scale boundaries will play a big role in how the severe weather event unfolds tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.
I still think most of the severe weather problems in Alabama will come in the 6:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m. time frame (tomorrow night into the pre-dawn hours Saturday), but a few isolated afternoon storms cannot be ruled out, and those could become severe. Go, as a broad-brush statement, the general risk time here will be from 3:00 p.m. through 3:00 a.m.
The surface low won't be all that deep, winds are fairly unidirectional, and the upper trough is positive tilt, but most other severe weather parameters will be in place. Excellent instability, very good speed shear, strong winds aloft and near the surface.
CALL TO ACTION: Be sure you have a way of hearing tornado warnings tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Forget tornado sirens... you need a NOAA Weather Radio in your home. If you are away from home, have E-Warn on your cell phone. Everybody in the home, including the children, need to know the safe place. And, if you live in a mobile home, you must have a safe place to go, even in the middle of the night.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION:
*You can sign up for E-Warn here:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/ewarnmain.hrb
*If we go into long form coverage, you can watch us on the web if television is not available to you. Just go to our main page and click on the "streaming video" button on the right (near the top):
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/
When we are not in long form coverage, you watch watch our live Pinpoint Doppler radar. The stream is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Commercial free! You need the Real Player installed to watch. And, you can move your mouse over the video and you have the option of putting the video into the Real Player, which enables you to size it any way you want, or make it full screen.
THE WEEKEND: Saturday will be mostly cloudy and cooler with some lingering light rain possible during the morning. Sunshine returns in full force on Sunday.
Have to run to a meeting down the hall; stay tuned to the blog for the latest updates. Due to the extremely high volume of e-mail, I won't be able to give personal briefings... you can read our thinking right here!
The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow....
competing news station show it at their 9:00 show....looks really close to the day 2 outlook we are under now,......
on April 6, 2006, 3:03 pm
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