Dr. Richard Knabb from the National Hurricane Center is going through the wild 2004 tropical season now.
Here is the season summary:
FIFTEEN TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE 2004 HURRICANE SEASON. NINE OF THESE BECAME HURRICANES ...WITH SIX BECOMING MAJOR HURRICANES...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE STRONGEST HURRICANE WAS IVAN...WHICH REACHED CATEGORY FIVE STATUS. THERE WAS ONE ADDITIONAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
SIX HURRICANES...ALEX...CHARLEY...FRANCES...GASTON...IVAN...AND
JEANNE...STRUCK THE UNITED STATES IN 2004. THREE TROPICAL STORMS ALSO HIT THE UNITED STATES. CHARLEY ALSO HIT WESTERN CUBA...WHILE FRANCES AND JEANNE ALSO HIT THE BAHAMAS...ALL AS MAJOR HURRICANES.
IVAN HIT GRENADA AND HAD SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON JAMAICA...GRAND CAYMAN...AND WESTERN CUBA. JEANNE ALSO HIT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS A HURRICANE AND PUERTO RICO AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.
ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES WERE DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE THAN 3000 DEATHS IN 2004. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE WERE IN HAITI DUE TO RAINS FROM JEANNE. UNADJUSTED PROPERTY DAMAGE IN THE U.S. IS ESTIMATED AT MORE THAN 42 BILLION DOLLARS...MAKING 2004 THE COSTLIEST HURRICANE SEASON ON RECORD. CHARLEY IS THE SECOND COSTLIEST U. S. HURRICANE ON RECORD...WHILE IVAN IS THE THIRD COSTLIEST.
Interesting image here of our friends Josh Johnson and John Walker at Port Charlotte during the passage of the eye of Charley:
http://www.ldct.org/eye1.JPG
GFS track during Ivan had a serious right bias in the early period of Ivan. Showing the system moving east of Miami on the 09/07/2004 runs! Within three days of landfall models were back on track with excellent agreement.
Jeanne and Frances made landfall at almost the exact same point on the Florida east coast.
A few days before landfall, GFS took Jeanne out to sea, while the U.K. Met took Jeanne to the Florida east coast (the correct solution). Other models were all over the place. The Florida State Superensembe was excellent.
The forecast error in the track placement was much smaller than the 10 yaer average. Errors have been cut in half over the past 15 years.
The official track guidance from NHC beat all models.
GFDL has been the top model for two years in a row in track placement. UK Met was next, followed by the NOGAPS.
FSU Superensemble very, very good this past year.
Some congressional helps for this year:
*Equip 10 Hurricane Hunters with SFMR... stepped frequency microwave radiometer.
*Deploys 7 moored buoys NHC designates
*Additional research by NOAA
Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)... developing new techniques. This has resulted in model improvments to GFDL and SHIPS intensity model. 12 projects are underway now.
NHC trying to improve warning products... they feel some of them are not adequate now.
The watch warning graphic will look different for the 2005 season.
New wind speed probabilities are scheduled for 2005, as opposed to probability of the center being near you. The chance of wind speeds at any one point have more direct meaning and impact.
JHT providing a new MCP model... Monte Carlo Probability... which will be used to compute wind speed probabilities.
CLIPER (climatology and presistence) model will be used to create perturbations in wind radii along each track.
Gridded, graphical, and text products will be produced.
New graphics will be up on the TPC website this year... including animated wind speed probabilities.
WFOs will get new gridded products.
Excellent presentation... now time for lunch!
Here is the season summary:
FIFTEEN TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE 2004 HURRICANE SEASON. NINE OF THESE BECAME HURRICANES ...WITH SIX BECOMING MAJOR HURRICANES...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE STRONGEST HURRICANE WAS IVAN...WHICH REACHED CATEGORY FIVE STATUS. THERE WAS ONE ADDITIONAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
SIX HURRICANES...ALEX...CHARLEY...FRANCES...GASTON...IVAN...AND
JEANNE...STRUCK THE UNITED STATES IN 2004. THREE TROPICAL STORMS ALSO HIT THE UNITED STATES. CHARLEY ALSO HIT WESTERN CUBA...WHILE FRANCES AND JEANNE ALSO HIT THE BAHAMAS...ALL AS MAJOR HURRICANES.
IVAN HIT GRENADA AND HAD SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON JAMAICA...GRAND CAYMAN...AND WESTERN CUBA. JEANNE ALSO HIT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS A HURRICANE AND PUERTO RICO AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.
ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES WERE DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE THAN 3000 DEATHS IN 2004. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE WERE IN HAITI DUE TO RAINS FROM JEANNE. UNADJUSTED PROPERTY DAMAGE IN THE U.S. IS ESTIMATED AT MORE THAN 42 BILLION DOLLARS...MAKING 2004 THE COSTLIEST HURRICANE SEASON ON RECORD. CHARLEY IS THE SECOND COSTLIEST U. S. HURRICANE ON RECORD...WHILE IVAN IS THE THIRD COSTLIEST.
Interesting image here of our friends Josh Johnson and John Walker at Port Charlotte during the passage of the eye of Charley:
http://www.ldct.org/eye1.JPG
GFS track during Ivan had a serious right bias in the early period of Ivan. Showing the system moving east of Miami on the 09/07/2004 runs! Within three days of landfall models were back on track with excellent agreement.
Jeanne and Frances made landfall at almost the exact same point on the Florida east coast.
A few days before landfall, GFS took Jeanne out to sea, while the U.K. Met took Jeanne to the Florida east coast (the correct solution). Other models were all over the place. The Florida State Superensembe was excellent.
The forecast error in the track placement was much smaller than the 10 yaer average. Errors have been cut in half over the past 15 years.
The official track guidance from NHC beat all models.
GFDL has been the top model for two years in a row in track placement. UK Met was next, followed by the NOGAPS.
FSU Superensemble very, very good this past year.
Some congressional helps for this year:
*Equip 10 Hurricane Hunters with SFMR... stepped frequency microwave radiometer.
*Deploys 7 moored buoys NHC designates
*Additional research by NOAA
Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)... developing new techniques. This has resulted in model improvments to GFDL and SHIPS intensity model. 12 projects are underway now.
NHC trying to improve warning products... they feel some of them are not adequate now.
The watch warning graphic will look different for the 2005 season.
New wind speed probabilities are scheduled for 2005, as opposed to probability of the center being near you. The chance of wind speeds at any one point have more direct meaning and impact.
JHT providing a new MCP model... Monte Carlo Probability... which will be used to compute wind speed probabilities.
CLIPER (climatology and presistence) model will be used to create perturbations in wind radii along each track.
Gridded, graphical, and text products will be produced.
New graphics will be up on the TPC website this year... including animated wind speed probabilities.
WFOs will get new gridded products.
Excellent presentation... now time for lunch!