Dry Weather Ahead

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This will be a short post this morning because there is not much to discuss. Models today look very much like the model output yesterday, so confidence is high with consistency in the model runs.

Let's see - ridge, high pressure, anti-cyclone - those are all the ways I can think to say the same thing. Surface high pressure combined with a ridge aloft will dominate the weather picture through next weekend. The upper level ridge flattens a little at mid-week and then strengthens into the end of the week and next weekend. As a result, we will remain dry. A few clouds are possible at mid-week, but with the Gulf of Mexico completely cut-off, there won't be much moisture to deal with. Plus, traveling disturbances will remain well north of Alabama.

Temperatures this morning dipped into the upper 30s. I suspect some of the cooler locations may have reached the mid 30s. With the atmosphere pretty dry, there probably was not any significant frost in those locations.

We're looking for afternoon temperatures to reach the 70s through Wednesday. From Thursday through the weekend it looks like values will climb into the lower 80s - maybe mid 80s by the weekend.

Preliminary storm surveys from Nashville reported that the Gallatin tornado was at least an F3. One of the things I know is that storm surveys take some time to accomplish. Travel in and around a significant tornado path are difficult slowing the process of surveying the damage. And tornadoes are classified based on the greatest damage at any point along the path. This means that NWS meteorologists cannot just go the the spot where they think the greatest damage is. To do the job right, they must review the damage from the beginning of the track to the end. Aerial surveys are the best for getting that done, but often the aerial survey must be complimented by a closer look on the ground. The combination of an aerial survey followed by a ground survey where the damage is the worst results in the best information. Death toll had reached 12 at my last check.

I hope everyone enjoys this beautiful day. I'm going to try to spend time with my wife today, since we have not seen much of each other over the last several days - one of the demands faced by meteorologists everywhere.

-Brian-