Thoughts On Friday's Severe Weather Event

Time to be a Monday Morning Quarterback on Friday's severe weather event....

SCHOOL CLOSING EARLY: Seems like lots of anger came from parents and others over many Alabama school systems closing early Friday due to the threat of severe weather. Let me say up front I appreciate school administrators showing concern over the threat of severe weather, and putting the safety of students and teachers at the highest level if priority. I understand the thought process; you don't want a child, or anyone else, on a bus or other type of vehicle during a severe weather outbreak. Get them home before severe storms develop.

But, long time readers here know I am not a big fan of closing schools on severe weather days. The greatest problem is that a large percentage of Alabama children in rural systems live in mobile homes, and a most of those who die from tornadoes here in Alabama are in either mobile homes or vehicles. School buildings, generally speaking, offer excellent protection for children, especially when compared to mobile homes.

That issue aside, most people had problems with kids being sent home on a sunny, warm day. We expected MOST of the big problems after dark; here is a quote from the blog discussion Thursday of last week:

"I still think most of the severe weather problems in Alabama will come in the 6:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m. time frame (tomorrow night into the pre-dawn hours Saturday), but a few isolated afternoon storms cannot be ruled out, and those could become severe. Go, as a broad-brush statement, the general risk time here will be from 3:00 p.m. through 3:00 a.m. "

You can read that entire post here:

http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/post/wxtalk/3997/High-Severe-Weather-Risk-Ahead

I don't know how most school systems get their weather information; I would imagine they get a briefing from local emergency management agencies; who in turn get their weather from the National Weather Service.

Bottom line is while I would not have dismissed early if I were calling the shots (for the reasons above), I APPLAUD the school systems for their "safety first" attitude. Sure, I am sure they will get the angry phone calls and nasty e-mails, but that is just part of the game.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER: These guys, generally speaking, do a great job. I think the high risk forecast was as good one; although I suggest the idea of forecasting a high risk a day in advance might need to be reconsidered. You cannot look at the damage in Alabama, and especially Tennessee, and call it a bad outlook. I am sure many people not in Birmingham (but in other parts of the Deep South) thought the high risk April 8, 1998 was a bad outlook because they didn't have a strong/violent tornado in their community. We tend to be pretty self-centered these days; "if it doesn't happen in my neighborhood then I really don't care". See Brian Peters excellent post:

http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/post/wxtalk/4042/High-Risk-Bust-or-Brilliant

TV COVERAGE: There was very little "hate mail" on this one; probably because we didn't cut off a popular program. Probably not many fans of the Ginzu Knife or Pocket Fisherman informercials that run in the middle of the night. I do want to thank our news department; their support was remarkable. Seemed like reporters and live trucks were everywhere. I will never forget Chris Tatum doing a live report from Walker County with hail bouncing off his body!

Amazing to see the ratings; at 1:30 a.m. Saturday ABC 33/40 had a 19.5 rating and a 43 share! That was considerably more than all of the other local stations combined. Once again, we thank you for your confidence in our coverage. We take the responsibility seriously.

I was also amazed by the response from people watching our live stream on the Internet. Even had one note from a viewer in Germany. Amazing.

Our new SKYCAM cameras were extremely useful. Sure, they don't show too much at night, but I thought the images were simply fantastic. By the way, you can see still images from our cameras on the web now:

http://www.abc3340.com/static/skycams/skycamsmain.html

I will take a look at our coverage and see what went right, and went wrong. As always, there is room for improvement.

INTERNET COVERAGE: We are aware of the problem with the blog and the ABC 33/40 web site slowing to a crawl Friday and Friday night. We simply were not able to handle the volume of traffic. I will be working on a solution for the blog in coming weeks; we have plenty of bandwidth... the problem is with the blog pulling files from a database (MySQL) everytime someone reads the blog.

Was this the last big severe weather threat of the tornado season? Probably not; while the weather looks quiet for the next couple of weeks, we still have a long way to go. For now we need to pray for our friends up in Tennessee. We sure understand their pain from our experiences here over the years.
Posted by  
on April 10, 2006, 8:09 am
Hindsight is always 20/20. I would agree that closing the schools went a little overboard. However, they took the information that they had and put a plan into action. There is absolutely no reason for anyone to be calling the schools and complaining. I was in a class last week and they even came early on Friday to give the exam. If anyone wants to throw a tantrum, then use your energy on something worthwhile like making sure that no child goes to bed hungry. A good job to all the 33/40 team.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on April 10, 2006, 8:17 am
A high risk is not based on how much damage one or two storms do. There is a CRITERIA that WAS NOT met. Therefore, it was a busted high risk. PERIOD!

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Posted by David Tinsley  
on April 10, 2006, 2:04 pm
Forecast=prediction. Predictions are not always 100% perfect. I wouldn't call this a busted forecast at all. The atmosphere is basically a "fluid" that is influenced by factors that are not discernable in forecasting models. There are many micro scale things that can happen to throw off the recipe for severe storms. The atmospheric conditions on Friday were pretty much as forecast.

I think James and his crew did a great job. Just be glad that the good Lord spared us from the worst cast scenario and quit blaming the messenger that we didn't have 20 F-5 storms.

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Posted by  
on April 10, 2006, 8:28 am
As usual, your coverage was superb. I feel very secure watching your coverage and the camera pictures were great. I feel this will be a great tool in the future. Thank you for staying on the air and helping us stay informed. You guys always do a great job!!

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Posted by Patrick  
on April 10, 2006, 8:32 am
Until it is confirmed that there was another F3+ tornado besides the one in Gallatin TN, then the high risk criteria has not yet been met.

Reply to this comment
Posted by   www
on April 10, 2006, 10:20 am
The same supercell caused F2 and F3 damage in northern Dickson County about 60 minutes before it hit Gallatin.

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Posted by Michael Mills  
on April 10, 2006, 8:39 am
Hey JC how can you say the high risk was a bust ?) The storms wher servere in NW Alabama storm after storm if anything needed to be done was move the high risk to the north. Now by the time the storms came down here in central Alabama they fell apart some. Yes we still had servere storms but not like they where in the NW part of the state. So to me the high risk WAS NOT A BUST.

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Posted by   www
on April 10, 2006, 8:46 am
I agree with James' assessment, good post. Got a question now, where is the Hamilton skycam? I just clicked the link and it's the same pic I saw Fri/Sat night/morning, is something wrong with the cam?

Great day to all!

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Posted by   www
on April 10, 2006, 8:53 am
I have a friend who is a teacher in the Shelby Co School system, and HE says that there were a lot of student check outs on Friday and a couple of teachers called in due to the threat of severe weather. So, it wasn't just the school administration, the parents were also taking the precautions as well.

Granted, James is right, there are a lot of kids who live in mobile homes, and their parents work so they are home alone.
Would they have been able to get to a place of saftey had severe weather threatened? Probably not. These are the kids who are safer staying in the schools.

In an article in the BHAM News, they mentioned WHY they have to decide early on, one of them to get the bus drivers prepared as some of them work other jobs too.

I think SPC nailed the high risk. People shouldn't blame James and other mets, the NWS or the SPC. They can only tell you what MAY happen.

Thanks James and team! I think you all did a splendid job -






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Posted by  
on April 10, 2006, 9:01 am
Alabama Weather: Unpredicatable, Volatile, and Utterly Fascinating. Good Job Guys.

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Posted by  
on April 10, 2006, 9:01 am
My child is in daycare so by law they have to close when the local school system closes. Here in Walker County, schools closed at 11:30am. I commend everyone for wanting to keep children safe but that was way too early! James clearly stated that some isolated storms could form as early as 3pm but the main threat started around 6pm. I am one of the parents that would go get my daughter if the weather was bad and get her home...she is in daycare in a butler building and we have a basement with a storm room. The weather just wasn't bad at that point. I know they have to decide early but I really think they jumped the gun on how early they let out. I'm not really complaining b/c the safety of my child is EXTREMELY important to me but I think they need to put a whole lot more thought into when to close! We went home and was able to be outside playing until it got dark.

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Posted by   www
on April 10, 2006, 9:54 am
I agree Brandi - that was WAY TOO EARLY! I too am the one who would go and pick up the kids when the weather started looking bad in surrounding areas. I can certainly understand why they have to make the decisions early, but geez - 11:30??

You have a storm room in your basement?? Lucky you! I have a totally underground windowless room in my basement, but it is still an exterior room. Wish I had one of those!!

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Posted by  
on April 10, 2006, 10:57 am
I'm really glad that the schools pay attention to severe weather but I do agree with James in that a lot of the kids are going home to a mobile home when they would have be more safe at school. Regardless of whether schools let out or not, I will go get my daughter ahead of time but ONLY because we do have a safe place to go!

Stephanie...I love the security of knowing I have a storm room in our basement. I know the scary feeling of living in a mobile home and having to worry about getting somewhere for safety during a storm...when we were looking at homes to buy, a basement and storm was priority over everything else!

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Posted by   www
on April 10, 2006, 3:54 pm
You wrote: My child is in daycare so by law they have to close when the local school system closes.
<><><>

Why is there a law that makes daycare close when schools closes.

My daughter had to leave work and go pickup my grandson by 1 PM because the day care was closing also.

The daycare does NOT give a refund for Friday.

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Posted by  
on April 11, 2006, 6:19 am
Chuck....I was just stating what I was told by my daycare. She said it is a DHR "rule" that when the local school systems close they have to close. We don't get refunded for that day either....

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Posted by  
on April 10, 2006, 9:06 am
To say the high risk was "nailed" is a little much. The SPC dropped the ball on this one and they know it. If the high risk area had been placed a little more to the north and east it would have been accurate. I understand the "better safe than sorry" precautions taken by the state, but the predicted "gloom and doom" and interviews of victims from past tornadoes and the comparisons of those days to that of Friday was a little ridiculous and premature to say the least.

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Posted by kdnix  
on April 10, 2006, 9:07 am
The people who complain in these situations are the same type people who stay in their homes on the beach during an approaching hurricane and when it hits them they complain and if it misses them they complain. They just like to complain....I cant believe people send hatemail to the weather crew...its just weird that that's how we treat people who are only trying to protect us!!! I think ya'll did a GREAT job and keep up the good work...there are people who really appreciate and depend on your hardwork!! Thanks

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Posted by BLT  
on April 10, 2006, 9:25 am
Well put kdnix. Someone is always going to complain no matter what the situation is!

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Posted by  
on April 10, 2006, 10:12 am
I have no problem with the high risk the SPC put out. We've had large tornadoes and severe weather when we were under a moderate or a slight risk. To me, the high risk just means a lesser chance that nothing at all will happen. It's a high risk of SEVERE WEATHER. The SPC never said there would absolutely be F5 tornadoes. People that complain about this sort of thing have entirely too much time on their hands, and are generally looking to place blame on government agencies as it is.

Yes, I do believe the news departments hyped it a bit too much, and I too believe students are safer in the schools, but thats a political and liability issue thats not going to change. Much like the tornado siren issue.

All in all, this was not a bust. There was active severe weather, there was damage. To be upset that a high risk was predicted and a giant F5 did not destroy the earth, is a bit silly. You people do realize that God controls the weather, don't you?

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Posted by Erin  
on April 10, 2006, 11:00 am
OK, I am confused, to those of you complaining about them putting us under a high risk, are you mad because your house didn't get blown away by an F5 tornado??? Are you dissappointed that more people didn't lose their life or what??? Why don't you drive through Gardendale where people are dealing with damage to their businesses and houses, and hey, one of our warehouses had part of the wall and roof blown off of it in Tarrant.

Just because it didn't happen to you, doesn't mean it didn't happen. If you think you can do a better job, feel free to try.

Thank you to the 33/40 team for another great job and on your dedication.

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Posted by Craig  
on April 10, 2006, 11:45 am
We have to ask the question, "What is the reason for posting slight, moderate, or high risks?" It's not so the SPC can pat themselves on the back and say "see, we met the criteria!" It's so the PUBLIC can be aware that slight, moderate, or high potential for severe storms/tornadoes exists. To see the number of tornado reports, number of tornado warnings issued and the severe storms/hail involved makes it plain that this was in fact a HIGH RISK day. I think they nailed it! So what if it didn't match the exact criteria of being "one F3 short." When high risks are posted it should (and normally does) mean that people pay more attention to the weather that day than they might otherwise. Thank GOD for this because the death toll could have been greater in places like Gallatin had the HIGh risk not been posted. My hat's off to the SPC and 3340... you guys are the best in the business.

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Posted by   www
on April 10, 2006, 1:58 pm
Read the attached from Huntsville NWS: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hun/stormsurveys/2006-04-07/Survey0407200


6.php and Nashville NWS: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=OHXPNSOHX before jumping to conclusions about the accuracy of the SPC. They are still not done with the surveys in TN and I would not be surprised at all if at least one of those tornadoes is eventually rated an F4 and that at least one other is rated F3. Nine precious lives were lost in Gallatin, TN and three were lost in McMinnville, TN. I would grade the SPC an A- on this forecast. I think the high risk was issued too soon and that it would have been better if it was centered 50-100 miles further north. Nevertheless, it was an amazingly accurate forecast, several days in advance. I think the SPC has set such a high standard of success that we are a bit spoiled.

I for one agree with the schools closing early. While I agree with James that schools are safer than cars or mobile homes, they are not the safest placein the world to be either. My director closed our office early at 1:30 because she did not want any of us to be on the road in our cars while there was a PDS tornado watch and a high risk of severe weather.

The Tennessee storms began forming around 10 a.m. between Pine Bluff, AR, Memphis, TN, and Clarksville, TN. I think that's where the cap was able to break first. What if conditions were slightly different and the first wave formed 50-100 miles further south? The tornadoes would have been much more intense and numerous in Alabama. Not only that, but they would have been on the ground while children were going home between 3 and 4 p.m.

No one knew exactly where and when these tornadoes would be until about 10-20 minutes before they hit. Therefore I support and applaud school administrators for "erring on the side of caution" and "taking the course of least regret". They followed the forecast of the SPC and I cannot fault them for that.

I think we should all be thankful that things were not much worse in Alabama this time. Our time will come, though, and I hope we all learn some lessons from this experience, so that when our time does come, we have no loss of life. Alabama WILL have more F3-F5 tornadoes. My hope is that when those occur that no lives are lost.

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Posted by  
on April 10, 2006, 2:25 pm
I agree with you Mike to an extent...but we could all "what if" every single day about everything. I expect that the TN storms that began around 10am was what their mets were forecasting (correct me if I'm wrong...I'm not sure about this...just guessing). My complaint with the schools closing as early as they did is based on what James was forecasting. He was forecasting isolated storms as early as 3pm with the main threat not starting until around 6pm. I'm not saying that schools shouldn't have closed at all...I'm just saying based on forecasts they should have closed so early.....

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Posted by upset person  
on April 10, 2006, 3:51 pm
Rural areas that have over 50% trailer population should not send those kids home.


Some parents don't hear that their kids are getting out, they work in plants, steel mills, construction etc. So those kids are sent home ALONE. What if they are 5-9yrs of age do you want those ages home ALONE.

Some parents are not able to take off and come home, some boss' don't allow it. So those kids are sent home ALONE.

Some people don't have family that can help them out, so their kids are Home ALONE.

If a parent choose to pick up their child from school thats one thing, yea for them they could get home. But sending those kids home to an unsafe place during a HIGH REST PDS day is down right stupid.

And for those teachers who called in due to bad weather, well while these parents that want to come home are forced to stay at work to keep the only job they have and worried sick to death about their children, it's nice to know those teachers cared so much to call in.

I think James did a wonderful job, don't care if it was a bust or not, i was warned and would rather be ready for it, than it sneak up on me.

Cameras did a great job and in daylight storms i bet they are going to be something wonderful.

I know this was not the place for my venting on the school thing but wanted to give my 2 cents.

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Posted by John T.  
on April 10, 2006, 5:26 pm
James just said we had 16 tornados in AL . 16 !, and the definition for the high risk also includes hail and HIGH winds . One of my best friends measured the wind at 94 mph with a portable anemometer on the Warrior River at the Jefferson / Walker Co line . 94 MILES PER HOUR ! Now tell me at all the reports from the COMBINED elements across the high risk area that it was not correct and on target , you need to open your eyes & ears . Go find something else to gripe about or better yet get up off your gripe seat and go be a good neighbor and help your neighbors in need that were hit by this storm system that I guess never really was from how some of you talk . Funny , I wonder how all this damage occurred . Ghosts maybe ??

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Posted by  
on April 10, 2006, 5:36 pm
Good Grief, I can't believe all the whining I've read about the "bust" of the event on Friday, and the early closings. How many of you out there are survivors of April 3, 1974? I am. I was an 8 year old child in the 3rd grade at Montview Elementary in Huntsville, Alabama. I spent half the night in my church basement and the other half underneath a mattress in the basement of my home. I will never forget the sound of a tornado. ...or the devastation that follows.

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Posted by pcweatherwatcher  
on April 10, 2006, 10:29 pm
being a teacher myself, I can't answer for those that called in. were they really calling in because of weather or was it something else? as soon as th eword came that we should close school early we called EVERY parent to let them know that school was getting out early and to make sure someone would be home. One reason that schools dismiss early is that some bus routes are long. Some buses are still running after 4pm on reg. days. If storms are coming at 3pm then its better for them to be off the road and not on a bus. Our system didn't do that one time and we had a tree on top of a bus with students. Better safe than sorry. Good Job to all of the Birmingham weather guys.(atleast our guys do tell us about bad weather)

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Posted by   www
on April 11, 2006, 7:57 am
No idea why they called in as I do not work for the system. My friend, as he was recounting his strange day in the classroom, said two classes were divided due to not having teachers. I think it was an assumption linking the call ins to the weather.

I certainly understand the reasons for early dismissal. Not all of the bus drivers are teachers, they have to know ahead of time when to be back at the school to get the kids home in the afternoons.
That is also the last place I want my child during severe weather. Def. better safe than sorry - my son's school dismissed at 1 pm , which I think was fair. Those who dismissed at 11:30 may have been the ones with the longer bus routes?


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Posted by Patrick  
on April 11, 2006, 7:04 am
All anyone had to do yesterday was listen to Paul Finebaum on the radio to realize that the next time there is a severe weather threat, a large portion of people will not take it seriously. Although I do not think the severe weather forecast was a bust, I think the SPC jumped the gun by putting the PDS out on a a day 2 outlook. This caused the high risk area to start off too far to the south and people were not aware as the high risk area gradually shifted northward. The "panic" had already set in. Its going to be a bad situation the next time central AL is threatened by severe weather and people do not listen.

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Posted by  
on April 11, 2006, 8:34 am
I couldn't agree with your more Patrick. I absolutely don't think it was a bust....the damage reports tell that story. But I do think that most people will not listen the next time we are faced with possible severe weather. Sad but true!

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Posted by  
on April 11, 2006, 9:40 am
In regards to the school closings, my younger brother goes to Oakman High School. At the moment it's being rebuilt; so their classrooms are currently in trailers. So I think it was okay that this school (at least) closed when it did. Although the guys at 33/40 were saying 6pm to 6am was the time frame for the severe weather, other channels were saying as early as 2pm. The schools closed around 11am-11:30am, so their bus routes would have been completed in the event that 2pm was the start of the severe weather. I think that just like some of you are saying cut the SPC some slack, should also give the school systems some slack as well.

If schools wouldn't have let out and the weather did get bad at 2pm and lasted into the evening, you'd just be complaining that the schools did nothing.

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Posted by  
on April 11, 2006, 11:15 am
I completely agree with Oakman's situation....I know in the past them and Carbon Hill (when they were in trailers) would let school out early. I'm not complaining that schools closed, I just think they jumped the gun a little on how early they did close. Besides, they are in education...they should be smart enough to know to listen to ONLY 33/40 for severe weather coverage!!!!!! HEHEHEHEHE

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