The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
The first storms of the day are popping up over Alabama... and they might produce small hail as reflectivity values are up to 65 dbz on our Pinpoint Doppler Radar. But, severe weather parameters are pretty marginal for the rest of the day and tonight. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for the northern two-thirds of the state.
Surface based CAPE values (instabilty) are up to 2,000 j/kg over parts of Central Alabama right now, but wind fields are marginal and lapse rates are so-so. I think the main threat will be from hail in the stonger storms, but nothing like the ones we saw last week. The mid-level lapse rate here is 6.5 degrees C/km... last week it was over 8 degrees C/km.
Rain will continue tonight and well into the day tomorrow. I still think the rain tapers off during the midday hours from west to east. I still think we stay in the 60s most of the day; if the sun pops out tomorrow afternoon we will reach the low 70s.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Great weather. Lots of sun, comfortable temperatures. Highs in the 70s.
THE WEEKEND: NASCAR fans paying close attention to this since this is race weekend at Talladega. Not much doubt we will have to dodge raindrops this weekend. I still think there is a reasonable chance much of the day Saturday will be dry, but no promise. The best chance of showers Saturday will be along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden.
Showers and storms will be more likely over the entire northern half of the state Saturday night into Sunday, as a big storm system forms over Missouri. This will be the result of phasing from systems in the southern branch and the northern branch of the jet. Dynamics will support a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday, especially for the northern half of the state.
Not sure if the instabilty will be all that high here on Sunday, but the dynamics should be pretty impressive. Bottom line is that Sunday looks wet, with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. A rain delay at Talledega seems likely, and there is also a chance they won't be able to run. Of course, this can change, so stay tuned.
LONG RANGE: The GFS continues to advertise the idea of a mean long wave upper trough over the eastern U.S. for the first 10 days in May... this could suggest cooler than normal temperatures here in Alabama. Sounds good to me...
Sure enjoyed seeing the second graders today at Huntingdon Place Elementary in Northport... look for them on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00!
The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... J.B. will keep the blog updated as storms continue to develop this evening.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
The first storms of the day are popping up over Alabama... and they might produce small hail as reflectivity values are up to 65 dbz on our Pinpoint Doppler Radar. But, severe weather parameters are pretty marginal for the rest of the day and tonight. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for the northern two-thirds of the state.
Surface based CAPE values (instabilty) are up to 2,000 j/kg over parts of Central Alabama right now, but wind fields are marginal and lapse rates are so-so. I think the main threat will be from hail in the stonger storms, but nothing like the ones we saw last week. The mid-level lapse rate here is 6.5 degrees C/km... last week it was over 8 degrees C/km.
Rain will continue tonight and well into the day tomorrow. I still think the rain tapers off during the midday hours from west to east. I still think we stay in the 60s most of the day; if the sun pops out tomorrow afternoon we will reach the low 70s.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Great weather. Lots of sun, comfortable temperatures. Highs in the 70s.
THE WEEKEND: NASCAR fans paying close attention to this since this is race weekend at Talladega. Not much doubt we will have to dodge raindrops this weekend. I still think there is a reasonable chance much of the day Saturday will be dry, but no promise. The best chance of showers Saturday will be along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden.
Showers and storms will be more likely over the entire northern half of the state Saturday night into Sunday, as a big storm system forms over Missouri. This will be the result of phasing from systems in the southern branch and the northern branch of the jet. Dynamics will support a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday, especially for the northern half of the state.
Not sure if the instabilty will be all that high here on Sunday, but the dynamics should be pretty impressive. Bottom line is that Sunday looks wet, with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. A rain delay at Talledega seems likely, and there is also a chance they won't be able to run. Of course, this can change, so stay tuned.
LONG RANGE: The GFS continues to advertise the idea of a mean long wave upper trough over the eastern U.S. for the first 10 days in May... this could suggest cooler than normal temperatures here in Alabama. Sounds good to me...
Sure enjoyed seeing the second graders today at Huntingdon Place Elementary in Northport... look for them on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00!
The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... J.B. will keep the blog updated as storms continue to develop this evening.
on April 25, 2006, 2:24 pm
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