The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
This weather system has been aggravating to say the least. We expected strong to severe storms late yesterday; it never happened. And, quite frankly I expected rain to be falling right now (I am writing this at 5:30 a.m.)... and it that isn't happening here (although it is raining in the northwest part of the state).
If the rain doesn't begin soon here the temperature forecast for today will be a bust; we have 69 in the forecast based on a cold front dropping south of here, clouds, and periods of rain. The front is still near the Alabama/Tennessee border.
But... we will be stubborn and stay the course. Some rain at times today along with a little thunder involved, but the chance of severe weather is tiny. Rainfall amounts to one-half inch.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Still looking good, with lots of sun and highs in the 70s.
WEEKEND: Once again we will try to be detailed here since this is race weekend at Talladega. The 00Z run of the GFS continues to change the timing of the rain. If you take this run on face value, the best chance of rain and storms here will be from 12:00 noon Saturday through 12:00 noon Sunday. The good news is that the instability looks marginal for a big severe weather event, despite the fact that a dynamic, phased upper storm will be involved over Missouri. But, rain could be heavy at times by Saturday night.
The GFS moves a dry slot into Alabama Sunday, and pushes the rain out of the state by early afternoon. This is certainly good news for the 150,000 people wanting to see a race at Talladega Sunday afternoon. I am not convinced this is the correct solution, however, and for now we will maintain a good chance of showers and storms during the day. We will adjust on the afternoon forecast package as needed after looking at the 12Z model set.
LONG RANGE: Still looks like a mean upper trough will be over the eastern U.S. for the first week of May, but the latest GFS departs from that by May 11 and develops a negative tilt upper system to the west, which looks like a good severe weather setup. But, you know the deal, that is voodoo land. No way of knowing a specific solution this far out.
The next afternoon map discussion video will be posted by 3:30 today.. maybe we will have some rain by then!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
This weather system has been aggravating to say the least. We expected strong to severe storms late yesterday; it never happened. And, quite frankly I expected rain to be falling right now (I am writing this at 5:30 a.m.)... and it that isn't happening here (although it is raining in the northwest part of the state).
If the rain doesn't begin soon here the temperature forecast for today will be a bust; we have 69 in the forecast based on a cold front dropping south of here, clouds, and periods of rain. The front is still near the Alabama/Tennessee border.
But... we will be stubborn and stay the course. Some rain at times today along with a little thunder involved, but the chance of severe weather is tiny. Rainfall amounts to one-half inch.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Still looking good, with lots of sun and highs in the 70s.
WEEKEND: Once again we will try to be detailed here since this is race weekend at Talladega. The 00Z run of the GFS continues to change the timing of the rain. If you take this run on face value, the best chance of rain and storms here will be from 12:00 noon Saturday through 12:00 noon Sunday. The good news is that the instability looks marginal for a big severe weather event, despite the fact that a dynamic, phased upper storm will be involved over Missouri. But, rain could be heavy at times by Saturday night.
The GFS moves a dry slot into Alabama Sunday, and pushes the rain out of the state by early afternoon. This is certainly good news for the 150,000 people wanting to see a race at Talladega Sunday afternoon. I am not convinced this is the correct solution, however, and for now we will maintain a good chance of showers and storms during the day. We will adjust on the afternoon forecast package as needed after looking at the 12Z model set.
LONG RANGE: Still looks like a mean upper trough will be over the eastern U.S. for the first week of May, but the latest GFS departs from that by May 11 and develops a negative tilt upper system to the west, which looks like a good severe weather setup. But, you know the deal, that is voodoo land. No way of knowing a specific solution this far out.
The next afternoon map discussion video will be posted by 3:30 today.. maybe we will have some rain by then!
yard sale fri and sat. and i really need to get rid of all this stuff - so the rain just needs to go away for the weekend.
on April 26, 2006, 5:07 am
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