Wet Again By The Weekend

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http://beta.abc3340.com/external.hrb?p=wxonthego&w=1

What a moving post below this one by J.B. Elliott... be sure and scroll down to read it. On to the weather business...

TONIGHT: Temperatures will drop quickly tonight with a clear sky, dry air, and light wind. Most spots will be in the mid 40s early tomorrow; the colder valleys will be closer to 40. Not many more of these kind of nights before summer arrives. Enjoy.

TOMORROW: Yet another fine day, with lots of sun and highs in the mid to upper 70s.

THE WEEKEND: Wet is the word for a pretty good part of the weekend. Lets break it down for NASCAR fans and everyone else with outdoor plans...

SATURDAY: The GFS is slower on the 12z run, which means much of the day Saturday could very well be dry. We will still mention a chance of a shower or storm by afternoon, but it sure looks like the organized area of rain and storms won't reach us until Saturday night. Looks like a decent chance the race Saturday afternoon at Talladega will be run without rain, but no guarantee. High temps will be in the mid 70s.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Wet and stormy. A dynamic, phased upper system will be over Kansas and Missouri, rain and storms are likely statewide Saturday night. The dynamics support a threat of severe weather, but the thermodynamics remain questionable. If we can get dewpoints up in the mid 60s, some storms Saturday night might produce hail and strong winds. Heavy rain is also a possibility; amounts of 1 to 2 inches is likely with some spots possibly receiving 3 inches.

SUNDAY: Rain and storms will continue on Sunday. The 12Z run of the GFS is slower; the dry slot is still west of Alabama Sunday morning. So, while we do believe the heaviest rain will come Sunday morning, we will have to continue at least a chance of showers into Sunday afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will probably be close to 70 degrees with clouds and showers. Yes, there is a chance the rain could be greatly diminished by the Aarons 499 at the Talladega Superspeedway, but we have to continue the risk of showers during the race.

J.B. Elliott in his afternoon discussion mentions the possibility of an MCS (mescscale convective system) moving over far South Mississippi and Alabama Saturday night, which might disrupt the flow of moisture into the northern half of the state. The GFS hints at this; but we really won't know if is a good possibility until the storms begin to fire Saturday.

NEXT WEEK: We will need to hang on to the chance of showers on Monday and Tuesday as the upper low fills to the northwest of us, and a surface boundary hangs around. Nothing really heavy; just a few showers on both days. The weather should be dry by Wednesday.

Thanks to the kindergarten kids at Mount Laurel Elementary in northern Shelby County... they were a great audience. Look for them on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 today! And, don't forget you will have the chance to win a new video iPod on all of our newscasts during the next four weeks. Good luck!