Big Changes Ahead

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

After a wonderful day today, our weather will change in a big way over the weekend. Be sure and scroll down to read J.B.'s list of low temperatures this morning.

TOMORROW: I still think most of the day tomorrow will be dry. Can't rule out an afternoon shower, but most of the rain will come after dark. Highs should be in the mid 70s in most spots with a mix of sun and clouds.

TOMORROW NIGHT: Rain should increase, especially after midnight. A thunderstorm is possible, but there will be very little instability.

SUNDAY: We will continue to forecast periods of rain during the day. There continues to be a chance of mass of rain and storms over the Gulf coast will block the good inflow of moist air into the northern half of the state; if this happens then rain will be light and spotty on Sunday. Otherwise, it could rain at any time.

The temperature forecast on Sunday is problematic. The GFS continues to show a wedge of cool air moving in from the east and shows a high of only 61 for Birmingham on Sunday. The NAM isn't on that bandwagon; that model has 73 for Birmingham on Sunday. We will pretty much split the difference in our forecast over on the seven day page, but I have a gut feeling the GFS has a good handle on the wedge and it might be correct. If that is the case, some places near the Georgia border like Heflin and Wedowee will hold in the upper 50s all day. Downright chilly for late April.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: The chance of a shower Monday is fairly small, so if the Aaron's 499 has to be moved to Monday I don't think weather will be a problem. Looks like the best chance of rain over the first half of the week will come Tuesday night with a passing front.

LATE NEXT WEEK: Looks like a good round of rain and storms at the end of next week, around Friday May 5. The GFS is suggesting dry weather for the following weekend (May 6-7).

Some big storms right now out in West Texas where tornado watches are up and a moderate risk of severe weather is in place... but nice and quiet here in our weather office. My next map discussion video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00 a.m.... have a great weekend!
Posted by  
on April 28, 2006, 3:04 pm
"Most of the day will come after dark"?

Is Joshua alive and well, using his God-given ability to make the sun stand still to ensure that the night is longer than the day?

Thanks for the unintentional giggle. You guys do a fantastic job.

Reply to this comment
Posted by   www
on April 28, 2006, 3:28 pm
I caught that boo boo also!

Well, the fun part will come after dark!

Reply to this comment
Posted by   www
on April 28, 2006, 3:59 pm
Ok yall...somebody had posted this on another website and said that the date was wrong but he said there really is a TD 1 out there. ???

ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
2100 UTC WED JUN 08 2006

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 84.0W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



http://www.wxsouth.blogspot.com

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on April 28, 2006, 11:49 pm
There is no TD. Look at the date. That was for the TD that became Arlene last year. However, Invest is up on a disturbance off the East Coast....Invest91L

Reply to this comment
Posted by   www
on April 29, 2006, 2:25 am
I wandered why the date was wrong. The person who posted that on another site said it was valid!

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