The Thursday morning video update is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Good to see J.B. Elliott up and running early this morning with his 5:11 a.m. post. Gotta love his attitude on life. I love reading his material; better than watching the Andy Griffith show!
Lets hit the highlights here:
*TODAY: Cool and dry with intervals of sunshine. We are forecast a high of only 52, which is 13 degrees below normal for March 10.
*TOMORROW: The next clipper system coming down the back side of the eastern trough will bring clouds, but not much rain. Models trends look very dry, and we have only mentioned a few sprinkles tomorrow morning.
*SATURDAY: Should be a nice day with ample sunshine, but the model output statistics are all over the road. The GFS spits out a high of 65; the NAM has a high of 47. Whats up with that??????? We will lean more toward the GFS; for now we have a high of 61 in our forecast package.
*SUNDAY AND BEYOND: Confidence is low due to a wild array of model solutions. I mean things really get muddy out here.
We still have a chance of light showers in the forecast for Sunday afternoon, but the latest run (06Z) of the GFS keeps us dry on Sunday and brings in some light rain on Monday. For now we will leave the forecast unchanged and wait on the 12Z runs.
And, the latest run of the 06Z GFS pretty much loses our St. Patricks Day storm, the one it has been advertising in the March 16-19 time frame.
Despite this, I would not be shocked to see a major storm developing in that time frame. The 18Z run from yesterday had a huge system roaring out of the Gulf of Mexico, and then rolling up the Atlantic seaboard. If you took that run on face value Memphis would have 5 to 7 inches of snow, we would have a bunch of rain and maybe some thunder as well. The ECMWF is similar to this solution. Like a mini-1993 storm with a track more to the north. Giving credibility to this idea is the fact that most blocking patterns, like the one we are in (that big bad block over Greenland is the reason the Polar vortex has been stuck over eastern Canada giving us the cold air in March) end up with a big bad storm breaking it down. Will we have a big bad storm in the March 16-19 period? Sure possible even though the latest GFS says no. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.
Will see more pre-schoolers today at Christ Methodist Church on Caldwell Mill Road today. Every school program this week has been with pre-school groups. They are a great reminder that we all take life a little too seriously at times! I think everyone needs to be silly every once in a while and get some good laughs. We had quite a case of this last Saturday night at our annual Little Dooey BBQ dinner in Starkville!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Good to see J.B. Elliott up and running early this morning with his 5:11 a.m. post. Gotta love his attitude on life. I love reading his material; better than watching the Andy Griffith show!
Lets hit the highlights here:
*TODAY: Cool and dry with intervals of sunshine. We are forecast a high of only 52, which is 13 degrees below normal for March 10.
*TOMORROW: The next clipper system coming down the back side of the eastern trough will bring clouds, but not much rain. Models trends look very dry, and we have only mentioned a few sprinkles tomorrow morning.
*SATURDAY: Should be a nice day with ample sunshine, but the model output statistics are all over the road. The GFS spits out a high of 65; the NAM has a high of 47. Whats up with that??????? We will lean more toward the GFS; for now we have a high of 61 in our forecast package.
*SUNDAY AND BEYOND: Confidence is low due to a wild array of model solutions. I mean things really get muddy out here.
We still have a chance of light showers in the forecast for Sunday afternoon, but the latest run (06Z) of the GFS keeps us dry on Sunday and brings in some light rain on Monday. For now we will leave the forecast unchanged and wait on the 12Z runs.
And, the latest run of the 06Z GFS pretty much loses our St. Patricks Day storm, the one it has been advertising in the March 16-19 time frame.
Despite this, I would not be shocked to see a major storm developing in that time frame. The 18Z run from yesterday had a huge system roaring out of the Gulf of Mexico, and then rolling up the Atlantic seaboard. If you took that run on face value Memphis would have 5 to 7 inches of snow, we would have a bunch of rain and maybe some thunder as well. The ECMWF is similar to this solution. Like a mini-1993 storm with a track more to the north. Giving credibility to this idea is the fact that most blocking patterns, like the one we are in (that big bad block over Greenland is the reason the Polar vortex has been stuck over eastern Canada giving us the cold air in March) end up with a big bad storm breaking it down. Will we have a big bad storm in the March 16-19 period? Sure possible even though the latest GFS says no. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.
Will see more pre-schoolers today at Christ Methodist Church on Caldwell Mill Road today. Every school program this week has been with pre-school groups. They are a great reminder that we all take life a little too seriously at times! I think everyone needs to be silly every once in a while and get some good laughs. We had quite a case of this last Saturday night at our annual Little Dooey BBQ dinner in Starkville!