Storms Becoming More Numerous

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Don't forget all of our video and audio products are available on iTunes so you can watch or listen anywhere!

Sure getting a ton of e-mail questions about weather during the next two weeks. I will try to answer as many questions here as possible. Lets take it in chronological order:

THIS EVENING: SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for us tonight. Storms could produce small hail and gusty winds; we have scattered to numerous storms now on radar from Vernon to Onenota. Lots of lightning; so far no severe weather warnings have been required. Storms will linger well into the nighttime hours.

TOMORROW: We will continue to highlight a good chance of showers and storms, but it won't rain all day, and the sun should be out at times. The GFS hints at a wave forming on the surface front just north of us, which might enhance the chance of rain and storms tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Rainfall amounts of 1 inch are likely around here, with heavier amounts possible in spots.

SATURDAY: Both the NAM and the GFS continue to trend toward a drier solution, and it now looks like much of the day will be dry. We can't drop the chance of rain completely, but any showers should be widely spaced, and the best chance of those could very well be south of I-20.

SUNDAY: This now looks like the wettest day of the weekend. Quite a flip-flop from our thinking earlier this week. Another wave on the front should bring a few periods of rain in here on Sunday. A thunderstorm is not out of the question. Once again, it won't rain all day, but it could rain at any time, even during the morning.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: Looks like Monday and Tuesday will be relatively dry at this point. Guess a few isolated showers are not out of the question, but rain sure won't be widespread. We might see an increase in showers and storms by Tuesday night and Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward through the state.

LATE NEXT WEEK: A potent storm system could bring the risk of strong to severe thundrstorms to Alabama on Thursday of next week (May 11). Then Friday looks like a day with potential for clearing as drier air returns.

MAY 13-14: Keep in mind we are in "voodoo land" when it comes to forecasting weather for this weekend, since there isn't much skill in a specific weather forecast beyond seven days. But, the GFS is hinting at dry conditions both days for Alabama. That might change, however.

Thanks to the third graders at Cherokee Bend Elementary in Mountain Brook for being a great audience today... look for them on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News today at 5:00!

I will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow! J.B. will have updates on the ongoing thunderstorms over North Alabama as needed...
Posted by Mikey  
on May 4, 2006, 2:15 pm
What's the big deal about whether or not it rains this weekend? We all know that forecasts change from day to day and even hour to hour.

Geez...just take an umbrella with you.

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