A quick mid-morning note...
SPC has much of central and south Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow. Needless to say, lots of interest in the weather situation tomorrow with the final round of the Regions Charity Golf Classic ahead.
Here is a quick look at various severe weather parameters for tomorrow afternoon at Birmingham from the 12Z NAM:
Surface based CAPE: 1129
Lifted index: -1.9
0 to 3 km helicity: 92.9
SWEAT Index: 194
Temp/Dewpoint: 72/65
850 mb wind speed: 16 knots
500 mb wind speed: 47 knots
At first glance it sure looks like the best chance of severe storms will be over the southern half of the state; the NAM shows a surface low forming on a surface front over central Alabama, passing south of Birmingham. Instability values are marginal for severe weather along the I-20 corridor.
Bottom line: rain is likely after midnight tonight and during the day tomorrow. Some thunder is likely here, but for the moment we still believe the best chance of severe storms will be south of Birmingham, and perhaps south of Montgomery....
We will keep an eye on the situation... more updates later.
SPC has much of central and south Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow. Needless to say, lots of interest in the weather situation tomorrow with the final round of the Regions Charity Golf Classic ahead.
Here is a quick look at various severe weather parameters for tomorrow afternoon at Birmingham from the 12Z NAM:
Surface based CAPE: 1129
Lifted index: -1.9
0 to 3 km helicity: 92.9
SWEAT Index: 194
Temp/Dewpoint: 72/65
850 mb wind speed: 16 knots
500 mb wind speed: 47 knots
At first glance it sure looks like the best chance of severe storms will be over the southern half of the state; the NAM shows a surface low forming on a surface front over central Alabama, passing south of Birmingham. Instability values are marginal for severe weather along the I-20 corridor.
Bottom line: rain is likely after midnight tonight and during the day tomorrow. Some thunder is likely here, but for the moment we still believe the best chance of severe storms will be south of Birmingham, and perhaps south of Montgomery....
We will keep an eye on the situation... more updates later.